Real Clear Politics is starting to piss me off!

[Freddie]

Is it RCP or Drudge Report?

RCP is *supposed* to be a "balanced" selection of links to political news and opinions of the day. I counted yesterday afternoon's selections, 7 out of 11 were from the Repug side. Every time I'm feeling really good about this election, like Friday AM after the convention, just go to RCP and have your hopes dashed.

At least I've learned which publications lean which way. Sometimes it's interesting (and revolting) to see how the other side thinks. Especially the comments section.

If RCP is a true reflection of our nation I'm discouraged.

[tomm2thumbs]

1. my advice is to keep a bookmark on...

Five Thirty Eight
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

You can not only read through the media haze with more detailed analysis than I have found anywhere, it is also a reasonable look at why some folks want to use the popular vote as a way to keep this thing 'scary' and 'tight' for the sake of customers (ie. readers) not losing interest, and frankly, for both sides to keep the level of motivation up for their side. Which has a worthy purpose on some levels. Tortoise & the Hare...

But as of today, Nate is giving Obama close to an 80% chance of winning now based on current analysis. basically 78 to 22 - advantage Barack.

Let the others pick and choose their wild ride scenarios to keep the timid on the edge of the seats, and coming back for more. I'm much more prone to trust the guy who predicted the last one with uncanny accuracy, and who shows exactly how and why he positions numbers the way he does.

Facts and figures are strong medicine against folks that only have leanings to argue their point.

[Freddie]

4. Thanks!

I'm lazy; RCP is an app.
Is there an app for 538? I do enjoy the site.

[tomm2thumbs]

11. there's an election 2012 app

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/mobile/app

It will have the blog posts on it - might be more than you need but since it really is running up to the Election, I guess a couple of months of info is better than not

[davidpdx]

2. It's been pretty clear for awhile that RCP is conservative

So reading it you have to take it with a grain of salt. Almost as big of a grain of salt as watching CNN these days.

[cleduc]

3. I have felt they were unbalanced

since the 2008 election. I've felt the same thing.

Beyond that, there are a number of GOP slanted pollsters. By having more than Rasmussen, they help put the finger on the scale in polls of polls because for example, three different sourced GOP slanted polls help more than one (for obvious reasons).

Why do they do this? M-O-N-E-Y and to help their contest. The tighter they keep the race, the more people are inclined to give money to campaigns, "trying to make a difference".

The slanted pollsters "hide" their bias by moving closer to reality just before the election.

Real Clear overlooks the above going on.

Further, when you look at their projected electoral vote map, the rules are different for a party. Objectively, one would define a consistent percentage range to determine lean, strong, tossup, etc. Real Clear gives the GOP a broader range when deriving their map - which increases the number of red states.

I'm not a polling expert but those are some of my observations.

[Marsala]

5. Haven't they always leaned conservative?

I definitely had that impression in 2008. I only go there for the polling aggregate.

Politico is more balanced than RCP. (Relatively speaking.)

[fredamae]

6. "If RCP is a true reflection of our nation I'm discouraged."

Your last sentence defines the goal of the negativity being "center-staged"-it Discourages people from being involved, diminishes confidence, causes fear etc.

I heard yesterday there are 90 Million voters who favor Obama that have stated they'll NOT Vote! No one knows what factors play in--yet, but I'd suggest the saturation of 24/7/365 campaigning, polarization etc might be at least a root cause.
Even RCP understands that polls are only as reliable as the person who Pays for them is honest.

Hire a pollster and you can develop a poll to give you any result you want....

[Freddie]

8. People who don't vote

So many factors. My late MIL refused to register to vote because she thought only registered voters got picked for jury duty. (I'm pretty sure she was wrong). Then she complained about politicians constantly.
I've read (here on DU) about Oregon's voting by mail and it sounds good. Make it easier to participate and more people will vote. Exactly what the Repugs want to stop.
Here in PA there is no early voting; 7a to 8p on Tuesday and that's it. Work schedules and long commutes can easily discourage voting, especially in a Presidential year with long lines, etc. It's so easy to sit home on the couch.

[fredamae]

9. Oregon likes Vote by Mail-we have 3

Weeks to vet, debate, discuss and decide.

However, ALEC is alive and well here also. During the 2011 Leg Session the GOP tried to get a bill passed that would have Repealed our Vote by Mail, create a need for everyone to Re-register etc. The Bill: HB3506. The bill was left sitting in CMTE upon adjournment and may well, depending upon the outcome of the elections, resurface during the 2013 session.
Amongst other issues are bills to restrict womens rights and "sobriety check points" in a state where DUII fatalities are already falling.

Oregon is waking up....We have 30 Sens (3 ALEC that we know of) and 60 House Reps-(19 identified ALEC) 22 of them are identified as ALEC members. We know of others who do ALEC's bidding who are not full dues paying ALEC members.

[Hab Habit]

7. Were the Razzies included?

Those twits still think McCain has a shot in the 2008 campaign! (Yes, my American friends, I'm less than 100 miles from your border.)

[otohara]

10. Never Liked That Site

they are not balanced in the least.
Ugly comments are a huge turn off...

[Blue Yorker]

12. RCP is owned 51% by Forbes Media

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=RealClearPolitics

Steve Forbes is a conservative, as illustrated by ontheissues.org



http://www.ontheissues.org/Steve_Forbes.htm

[littlewolf]

13. I use RCP to find polling data .... nt

[Denzil_DC]

14. RCP definitely leaned Republican in 2008

In that race, RCP also used to cherrypick which polls to include in its overall averages in order to come up with GOP-favoring results.

For these reasons, I don't check the site out much nowadays, so I couldn't tell you whether they still do that.

[Jennicut]

15. I posted this about RCP today already:

"RealClearPolitics is a political news and polling data aggregator based in Chicago, Illinois. The site's founders say their goal is to give readers "ideological diversity".They have described themselves as frustrated with what they perceive as anti-conservative, anti-Christian media bias, and while Patrick Stack of Time magazine has described the commentary as conservative-leaning, the site includes columns and commentary from both sides of the political spectrum.
The site was founded in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan. Forbes Media LLC bought a 51% equity interest in the site in 2007." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics

RCP is a good site for seeing averages of all the polls and the latest polls but it's opinion pieces are dreadful and totally lean conservative.

[Tx4obama]

16. The only thing RCP is good for is their Latest Polls page, link below

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/