2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSome more interesting tidbits from Nate Silver's 538 blog....added in EV totals
Last edited Sat Sep 8, 2012, 10:10 PM - Edit history (2)
This is current percent chance of taking the state (darkest to lightest blue): (I am going to add EVs and totals by groups of 10)
Illinois - 100% 20 EV
New York - 100% 29 EV
Maryland - 100% 10 EV
Vermont - 100% 3 EV
DC - 100% 3 EV
Hawaii - 100% 4 EV
California - 99.9% 55 EV
Rhode Island - 99.9% 4 EV
Delaware - 99.9% 3 EV
Massachusetts - 99.6% 11 EV
Maine - 99.1% 4 EV
Washington - 98.9% 12 EV
Connecticut - 98.5% 7 EV
New Jersey - 97.7% 14 EV
New Mexico - 97.6% 5 EV
Oregon - 96.9% 7 EV
Minnesota - 96.5% 10 EV
Michigan -95.2% 16 EV
Pennsylvania - 93.3% 20 EV
So those states over 90% total 237 EVs
New Hampshire - 84.8% 4 EV
Nevada - 84.5% 6 EV
Wisconsin - 83.2% 10 EV
Add in 80-90% probability - another 20 - to 257
Virginia - 75.3% 13 EV
Ohio - 74.8% 18 EV
Iowa - 74.3% 6 EV
Colorado - 74.1% 9 EV
Add in 70-80% probability - another 46 - takes us to 313 EV - but look! Even if it is JUST IA and CO....gets him to 272! Meaning Obama wins without OH, VA, FL or NC!
Florida - 65.5% 29 EV
And that gets us to 342.
With the only other state close -
North Carolina - 42.6%
Nothing else looks even in play. Pretty clear where the money should be spent!
I posted this because it was a bit surprising to me to see how solid things are already looking - even as the DNC bounce has yet to fully play out!
This also demonstrates pretty clearly how Mitt has hardly any realistic path at all, whereas Obama has many!
russspeakeasy
(6,539 posts)struggle4progress
(118,290 posts)Marsala
(2,090 posts)speedoo
(11,229 posts)I think PPP will publish a NC poll Sunday night.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)Most of the country realizes what's important and what's nonsense .
budkin
(6,703 posts)I hope the majority of Obama supporters do not see that... we need all the help we can get right through election day!
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)I mean Mondale carried Minnesota AND DC... Romney might have to scratch and bite for just Utah.
Ian62
(604 posts)Has been my prediction since 8th May.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/electoral-college-maps-romney-cannot.html
It only needs an analysis of each candidates relative merits, current polling and what has yet to be aired (in any meaningful sense) to come up with that conclusion.
There is now a small chance of Obama now taking Arizona and/or Missouri as well after Romney's Stalinist antics in Tampa, exacerbating the poor state of Romney's ground game in those states.
Nate only includes analysis on the available polls.
He does not analyse wider factors.
Picking Ryan as VP was a definite nett negative for Romney.
It polarises the base for both parties.
That is an advantage for Democrats as it is harder for them to get out the base vote (and there are more registered Democrats than there are registered Republicans).
Nate has just picked up on this in the last couple of days.
Picking Ryan was effectively Romney's suicide to GOP, but they didn't listen
Deaf, dumb and blind GOP.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/paul-ryans-effect-on-election-chances.html
Nate's latest has Obama at 79.8% Romney 20.2%.
He is moving in the right direction.
More realistic odds now would be Obama 90% Romney 10%.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/sept-7-polls-find-hints-of-obama-convention-bounce/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
(Look at the panel on the right - scroll down 1 or 2 pages.)
longship
(40,416 posts)However, TPM's electoral map has had Mitt stuck at 191 EV almost since they started reporting it this year. Obama goes up and down, but nobody has Obama at that level. The highest I've seen is 332 EV.
But, gees Louise, I hope you are correct. To use Cenk Uygur's parlance, "That would be awesome."
Keep it up, but pay increasing attention to polling as it will become increasingly relevant.
Ian62
(604 posts)I put up.
Romney hasn't been vetted.
Obama has.
Obama is about to vet Romney over the next 2 months.
There are all sorts of things that have not been aired so far to Independent voters (all sorts of things that haven't been aired to GOP voters for that matter.)
Obama will also crucify Romney in the debates starting on 3rd October.
Obama is much smarter and a much better debater than Romney.
Romney has only empty rhetoric and is easily flustered.
Election analysis of what is GOING to happen.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/paul-ryans-effect-on-election-chances.html
coalition_unwilling
(14,180 posts)would overturn Roe v. Wade.
Obama's campaign should now use this to crucify Republicans and turn them into a rump party for at least a generation.
Ian62
(604 posts)If you take account of the normal/average temporary distortions caused by naming a VP and holding conventions.
And you take account of the innate bias of some pollsters - like Nate Silver does.
E.G. Rasmussen are Republican shills. They over poll registered GOP and are always 3 to 5 pts higher for GOP than the true numbers.
(They adjust down in the last week or two to make out they were accurate all along and find some excuse as to why their numbers are "suddenly" changing.)
This is to be expected.
Obama has much more to attack Romney with, than Romney has to attack Obama with.
Unforeseen events like Akin have helped Obama.
But it is also to be expected that more of the unforeseen events favor Obama rather than Romney.i
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Some Republican analysts are saying that Romney can win if he gets 60% of the white vote.
What are the current estimates?
That seems to be the only way Romney can still win.
greatauntoftriplets
(175,742 posts)Not that I'm surprised.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)PA, WI, FL and OH. And if IN starts to move our way, IN.
longship
(40,416 posts)I have no bandwidth on a mere iPhone (2-3 bars EDGE net -- like dialup only worse).
How many EV do just these states give President Obama in January, assuming he wins no other?
Many Thanks.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)Has it 332 to 206.
Showing all those states for Obama and NC barely for rMoney.
longship
(40,416 posts)I know about electoral-vote's delusional projections. (They throw out Ras because of putative Rep bias but do not throw out polls which may have Dem bias. Not allowed! You take the whole data set. And publish the distribution to indicate bias in your data. Never throw out data because of bias. It's all biased.)
I asked specifically, and I thought I phrased it clearly, for the EVs for those specific states in the OP's list, through FL.
And, yes, I look at TPM's, Princeton's, and even the Obama-skewed electoral-vote EV maps every day. The best may be the first two. IMHO, the third is a unicorn which farts rainbows.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)unless I am not understanding your question.
EV's site has all the same states for O as Silver's site. At this point.
But whatever. If you don't like this post, I'll be too busy to reply.
longship
(40,416 posts)But I really thought that I was clear that I am decidedly bandwidth challenged.
I did not ask for electoral-votes.com's evaluation. I did not ask for anybody's personal evaluation.
I specifically asked for the EV's of the states in the original poster's post.
How in the flaming fuck am I to know that the electoral-vote.com has the same count? (if it even does)
I go to the EV sites every afternoon, not before, and not after.
Sheesh! Sometimes when one asks for assistance on DU, one gets a fucking argument.
Read my post again and please answer the question in the context that it was phrased.
Not, Well, smegma-vote.com has this projection.
I am bandwidth limited here.
Thank you very little.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)Who pissed in your cheerios?
Frankly with your attitude, I'm not surprised you often think that people are arguing with you.
You should really delete this post and apologize.
Webster Green
(13,905 posts)I can't believe you posted so angrily when your demands were not immediately met.
WTF?
Ian62
(604 posts)If Romney were to take NC (which he won't) the result would be, Obama 332 Romney 206.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/electoral-college-maps-romney-cannot.html
mucifer
(23,547 posts)that the numbers will be this good in 2 months.
I hope they will.
landolfi
(234 posts)but what else do they have? They've tried lying, misleading, defaming, and they have many more skeletons to hide than BO. Romney is a weak candidate, not likable, evasive, and he picked a kid for VP who thinks he has to make things up to impress people. To me, the president gets the benefit of any doubt about Romney, and there's plenty to doubt. From the zero foreign policy experience and London Olympics debacle to the evasiveness about any details of anything, especially his taxes, to the tendency to stick his foot in his mouth, to his numerous reversals, he's a disaster. Hopefully the rich donors will realize it soon and give up, because he's a bad investment.
SunSeeker
(51,563 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)I do think we can turn NC blue. I do think that as time goes, on, RMoney and Ayn, despite the beaucoup dollars and attack ads, are just a horrible sell.
I also think the economics will continue to improve - and most will think it foolhardy to change at this time....
but who knows! We shall see in good time.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)The PACs are more effective at tearing down a relatively unknown. Obama is very well known, now. He has been the president for almost 4 years. Mitt is known too, which is bad for him, because he has carry and builds his unfavorables. He just isn't likable and there is nothing the PACs can do to change that.
The citizen united media buys can have some effect, but this election will show that their influence is not as dominant as feared.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)rMoney's team is looking at the same bleak numbers. If "Game Change" was at all reality, the discussions right now are about how to go dirty, how dirty to go, and when and where to start.
I expect the debates to be a total disaster for rMoney.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)their negativity.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)He will be operating from a point of weakness, and I am sure he will come unglued. I mean really, how dare Obama show up the precious Mittster prep-school entitled elitist?
People think George Bush Sr. was dumb, but I actually think Mitt is dumber. Bush was a good ol' boy who was just naturally informal and awkward.
Mitt tries to act as if he's the smartest person in the universe, but really he's said and done things that are far worse than Junior. The problem is--everyone can see the disparity between what he projects and what he really is--a dunderhead.
If it weren't for his father, Mitt Romney would be selling shirts at Barney's.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)That has always been an act.
That man is very dangerous and very devious.
Many people seem to forget that he was once CIA Director, and that there's evidence he was involved with the CIA from way back.
Even has peripheral connections to some of the people involved in the JFK assassination.
Read Russ Baker's "Family of Secrets". There's a lot about the Bush Family that the average American doesn't know.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Sr is diabolical for sure. I meant bush Jr.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)whether he can bring congress in with his coattails.
tavalon
(27,985 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)and reported facts (I know Pres O is far from perfect) how O could probably be at least be at 55% and over huh.
Even with all the negative coverage and all the fucking lies, distortions, misinformation by the GOPpers he still leads. I have yet seen reporting by CNN on the suppression and purging except for a blimp - move along nothing to see here, but CNN thought "GOD" and "Jerusalem" were more important.
Atman
(31,464 posts)It's called "electronic voting."
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)I know...the EV thing bothers me too - that's why we need to work to make it impossible to fiddle with this election!
longship
(40,416 posts)In spite of the fact that I am skeptical of these projections. Nate Silver has a good record. But it's not sufficient for me.
I am encouraged that he tries to build an accurate model. I like his projections -- which Democrat wouldn't -- but I can't help but believe that this may be a case of confirmation bias.
The same thing that is happening with electoral-vote.com which is excluding data (Rasmussen polls) merely because they do not agree with a perceived bias, true or not. That's why e-v.com has the most wildly optimistic projections of all the EV maps.
I prefer TPM's map, or Princeton's. Neither of which rejects data because they don't agree with it. In science, you cannot do that, in spite of any apparent bias.
I know. Statistics suck.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)You know, HOPE!
longship
(40,416 posts)It puts things in context. Anybody can draw the line wherever they want and make their own possible total.
Nate's ordering is very likely to be more accurate than his absolute percentages. Presuming that, candidate Rmoney has very few paths to 270 electoral votes. You can draw the line where you want and find out exactly where and how much one should support.
In the scheme of things, all this is important information, and very valuable to DUers who care about the the sausage making.
xtraxritical
(3,576 posts)It's called ENGLISH.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)xtraxritical
(3,576 posts)tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)Is that ENGLISH?
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)what a grump.
november3rd
(1,113 posts)To have a chance to win, Rawmoney has to win all of Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Florida, all states Obama won in 2008. Obama has consistently polled strongly in them all year, with Florida really the only one that is currently in doubt.
That being said, the only thing that matters is who actually casts votes on election day.
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)It is getting exciting...yet nerve racking!
HopeHoops
(47,675 posts)BootinUp
(47,156 posts)forgetaboutit Mitt.
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)as I have been saying the fat lady sung a long time ago for Mitt
Good riddance to rubbish
it indeed is 1964 all over again.
angrychair
(8,699 posts)makes me smile inside and out.
It is funny to read sites like Yahoo or Politco because you would like President Obama didn't have a single way forward to make any gains on Rmoney. I even thought I read somewhere (politico maybe??) that he was even in danger of losing IL and several other states. the teabillies are losing their minds right now.