538's Nate Silver: We're adding the RAND national tracking poll to our database...

[Tx4obama]

Nate SilverVerified ‏@fivethirtyeight

We're adding the RAND national tracking poll to our database. Methodology is unorthodox, but (IMO) in a smart way. http://bit.ly/TwwL6k

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/244609517994786816

Check out why it is differenthere: https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

[busterbrown]

1. A new guy is here.

I read today that Silver has Obama at an 80% win number.
Does that make anyone else nervous?
I know we are ahead,but by that much?
Iim so freaking nervous about this election, I hate counting chickens.......

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. Welcome to DU, busterbrown!

There's a very good way to counter your nervousness: get to work on the campaign!

Call up your local Dem headquarters, and volunteer.

[Tx4obama]

3. Nate's pretty darn good at predicting.

Here's a link to a 'LIST of LINKS' to more 2012 Presidential Electoral Vote Forecast Maps

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125175126

I wouldn't say that I'm nervous (Nate's page makes me happy), but the election is still two months away - anything can happen between now and then.
We still have the debates coming up. I'm hoping President Obama does great and Romney falls on his face. And I'm hoping Joe Biden whips Ryan good


Welcome to DU

[Warren DeMontague]

4. I'd be more nervous if the other team weren't so insane, stupid, pathetic and most of all

transparent in their tactics.

As such, cheer up, good fellow. As you are no doubt aware after the incredible contrast between our convention and theirs, there are many good reasons- beyond just the GOP's limp poll numbers- to be optimistic.

Think, for a moment, of a huge Obama win, big enough to reverberate loudly down-ticket. Enough to scare the GOP into finally agreeing to the long-overdue changes the American People want. Real financial reform. Maybe, finally, our Public Option enhancing the HCR bill. Fiscal responsibility through increased taxes for extremely high incomes, balanced with sensible military cuts, an end to the $60 Billion dollar a year drug war. Investments in science, and science education that recognizes we shortchange our students if we don't teach them that, for instance, evolution is a FACT. Legalization and Taxation of Marijuana, if we're really ready for sanity. GLBT citizens finally being able to marry the one they love. Putting a stop to all this religious right godbagger nonsense, getting the busybody fetus folks out of other peoples' bedrooms and bodies..

It will happen. Are you ready? I know I am!

Welcome to DU! Glad you're here to witness this wonderful stuff with us!!

[Fridays Child]

6. And, most of all, willing to do anything...

...ANYTHING to win. They are 100% amoral.

Regardless of political affiliation, religious belief, or anything else, we have an obligation to care for our fellow man that transcends every other consideration. It is the foundation of our humanity. And, whether or not everyone can articulate this universal principle, we all know that it's the truth. Nobody is perfect. That's also a part of being human. But the fact that the other team so routinely violates this most basic rule of humanity gives them an edge that we don't have.

I'm a "fight fire with fire" kind of person, if doing so is, ultimately, for the greater good. But, on a large scale, that's the definition of vigilantism, and I can't think of a single instance in history where vigilantism has not gone badly astray.

On the other hand, it's also the definition of revolution. Thomas Jefferson reminds us that "occasionally, the tree of Liberty must be watered with the blood of Patriots and Tyrants." Is this the time for a new American Revolution? Have we reached that tipping point or do things actually have to get as bad as the Republicans are promising?

[Warren DeMontague]

8. No. I am an optimist, and I think the truth wins out. And, I have great faith in the American People

despite the low-information voters and all the rest.

Look at Dubya. He had to, basically, steal two elections just to squeak his ass in there. Barely. Obama won a clear mandate in '08, against every single shred of "conventional wisdom" that had come before.

I think the media is a problem, the concentration of voices is a problem, the money in politics is a problem. Citizens United is a problem. But they can buy all the airtime in the world, people still walk into that voting booth by themselves.

I'm not sure fighting fire with fire is the answer. You fight fire with water. You fight lies with truth. Stupidity with intelligence, cruelty with compassion, intolerance with open-mindedness. Fear, with love.

Cliched, sure, but I do believe it's actually working. Like I said, despite the many real problems we as a nation and a planet face, I feel reasons to be optimistic.

[Fridays Child]

10. I wish I could share your optimism. And I hope...

...that you're right and I'm wrong.

[JRLeft]

5. The new site has Obama winning by about 12 percentage points.

[TroyD]

7. Some other remarks by Nate Silver tonight:

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

90% of the time, people overinterpret the movement in polls but I think the opposite is happening now.

Sometimes the election is won or lost at the conventions and this looks like it could be one of those years.

Also, it's remarkable how unassertive GOP has been on foreign policy & social policy. Economy is #1 issue but not literally the only one.

The upside case for Romney is that conventions were a wash, he's still down ~2. Downside case: he's in big trouble.

One more thought: the bin Laden mission may be an underrated factor in helping Obama.

Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner's Position

[Warren DeMontague]

9. '92 there was a massive contrast in tone and impression from the Conventions.

'92, the Conventions mattered. Absolutely.