State of the race: Advantage, Obama at Politico
State of the race: Advantage, Obama
By JIM VANDEHEI and MIKE ALLEN at Politico
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html
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A Democratic official said the other big worry for the Obama campaign is that when you dig into the small slice of undecided voters (probably only 6 percent to 8 percent of the electorate, according to the campaigns), the demographics are not favorable to Obama: mostly white, many with some college education, economically stressed, largely middle-aged.
Many of them voted for Obama in 2008 and felt good about that vote, and still think Obamas a good person who really tried hard, but the economy sucks for them, said the Democratic official, who has access to reams of internal polls and focus groups.
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Despite that, Obama officials have maintained for several weeks that there are too few undecided voters for Romney to get the bounce he needs from the debates. Romney is not going to win undecided voters four-to-one, a senior administration official told reporters on Air Force One on Friday. If you are losing in Ohio by four or five points and trailing in Colorado by two points, if you are trailing in Nevada by two or three points, you are not going to win in those states.
There is a small number of undecided voters, so you are not going to see tremendous movement out of these conventions, even out of the debates.
[W]e have a small but important lead in battleground states that is a huge problem for the Romney camp.
Ohio needs to be tied, Florida needs to be tied at least.
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