If we get to Philly and the polls STILL show Bernie doing better than HRC against the GOP...

[Ken Burch]

...insisting on nominating her anyway would be as delusional and self-destructive as it was for the party to insist on nominating Humphrey in 1968.

[MADem]

1. The polls reflect an unvetted, unknown candidate with a mysterious past that most Americans

know nothing about.

I think the more his past becomes part of his narrative, the more difficulty he will have.

[Scootaloo]

39. You think so?

Or you hope so?

[MADem]

41. Neither. I KNOW so. nt

[Scootaloo]

43. When will you be releasing your time machine to the public?

[MADem]

47. Muahahahaha....ne-VAH!!!!

[Scootaloo]

48. Nice mullet

?w=785

[MADem]

50. Ha ha ha - that's funny as hell!

Ooooh la la!!! Time Tunnel...in French!

[AgingAmerican]

52. Unvetted?

Are you talking about Obama? You describe him in 2008 to a tee.

[MADem]

76. Obama went through fire, and he had help from key demographics in the Democratic universe

that have not, as yet, warmed to Sanders in even noticeable numbers, and are unlikely to so do, outreach notwithstanding.

[AgingAmerican]

93. Obama fits your post to a tee

I don't think you know what 'unvetted' means. The word 'unvetted' fits someone like Sarah Palin, whose name they only googled before announcing her as the VP choice.

[MADem]

94. Obama was vetted DURING the primary process.

That hasn't happened in this contest.

Bernie went missing for several months (at least) after college, and no one can figure out precisely where he was--even his brother, who was in the same country, is "vague."

And when Sanders is asked, he doesn't answer.

That's "unvetted."

[AgingAmerican]

95. Suit yourself

[rjsquirrel]

59. I agree and I love Bernie

National head to head polls have never predicted anything this early in a presidential race.

Bernie has not taken any incoming fire from Republicans yet. They don't take him seriously. If they did he'd be a big fat target for a campaign of stoking fear over "socialism."

This thread is premised on a disingenuous argument. If polls are so important, deal with HRC being 15-20 up over Sanders among national democrats. You can keep pushing NH and maybe Iowa selectively. But HRC is cleaning BS's clock in the south and that won't change. If national polls matter Sanders supporters need to admit this is true.

The primary is won by the candidate who gets enough delegates, not by appeals to hypothetical polls about an unknown general contest opponent. We don't need to speculate about after that. Let voters decide.

[karynnj]

86. yet - early on - I have always seen the better known

Candidate poll higher due to name recognition. This time, throw in the CHORUS of party big wigs and media saying that HRC is a sure thing, tooting her resume, and it is surprising she is not far far ahead - even in the head to head race with the GOP.

I do agree you might have a point that many normally GOP leaning might shift from thinking Bernie the lesser of two evils, than their nominee if he is not Trump.

It makes me wish that the next generation of Democratic leaders had run. I would imagine that someone like Klobuchar or Gilbrand would now be in Bernie ' s position had they run. Warren would likely be even higher it all the excitement that SBS has but more acceptance in the center.

I think HRC will win both the nomination and Presidency, but it will be a harder slog on the latter than some other Democrat would have had. Not to mention, I don't have much hope that she will have learned not to be secretive and not to, at minimum skirt the limits of what the law allows.

[pangaia]

103. "I think the more his past becomes part of his narrative,"

the more popular he will become.

[onehandle]

2. I'll be at the convention here in Philly.

Hillary will have 90% of the delegates long before the convention and her 'competitors' will have conceded long before.

[Ken Burch]

3. She won't have 90% and your dismissive smugness is unjustified.

If she was as weak in the head-to-heads compared to Bernie as she is now, what possible point would there be in staying with her?

[pnwmom]

29. The vast majority of delegates will be committed to their candidate,

whoever that is, and their votes can't simply be overridden. No matter what people feel at the convention.

[rjsquirrel]

60. Because that is nonsense

Head to head general election polls mean nothing a year out. Sanders is nationally untested and had taken almost no incoming yet. He will.

Again, this is selective wishful thinking. If you put so much stock in national polls, then Bernie might as well drop out based on Clinton's national lead among democratic primary likely voters.

[karynnj]

89. to me, the polls that say the most, are the HRC polls vs the GOP

Last edited Fri Dec 25, 2015, 03:03 PM - Edit history (1)

She is as well known as any non President has been and she loses or is close to some really shaky Republicans.

To me, it suggests that had someone without her baggage but more mainstream than Bernie ran, we would have an easier win.

[onenote]

98. Do they say the most because they are the most accurate

or because they say what you want to hear?

Polls this far out are worthless.

[karynnj]

100. I am not happy with what I see as a potentially tough race

The reason I take it as serious is because I suspect that , like an incumbent President, HRC is for better AND worse very defined and it easy to see the "lever" to use to make people uneasy about her. I do not get why when she knew she would run and knew she was incredibly favored, she would not have been as risk averse on things like having a private server as taking on challenges where failure was as likely as success.

[Furrfu]

5. I would hold your reservations to Philadelphia, unless you intend to support Bernard Sanders

for the President of the United States of America in GE.

She will fail again. Support will erode after lopsided losses after losses, embarrassing the endorsers....

[Dustlawyer]

34. TPTB will try to take it away from Bernie because he will spell the end of their total control over

Government.

[onehandle]

38. I live in Philly. No reservations required.

Short trip down the road to my post to see Hillary accept our nomination.

[Scootaloo]

40. Under what party?

Won't be the Democratic Party.

[liberalnarb]

8. I may be there too.

Going with a Union activist who is going as a delegate for BERNIE.

[Agschmid]

19. Since no one has voted yet...

Is this a super delegate?

[seabeyond]

4. It could merely be a difference between misogynists refuse voting for a woman. SO? We ought to not

put up a woman (or black) candidate cause there are bigots?

I think not.

Clinton wins the primary, she won it by the party that has less bigotry.

She earned it. We should not reward bigotry but stand tall against it.

How shameful to allow a bunch of bigots dictate our vote.

[Furrfu]

7. Ah, this must be the "Gender Nusiance" Group

Pardon me while I take a picture of your group for historical and political study.

Moving on...

[liberalnarb]

9. Is this the part where Bernie supporters start getting called sexist?

This is just like in 08 when we were Obama supporters and we got slapped with sexism. Oh yeah we won that one anyway.

[Ken Burch]

16. Sexist? I thought we were racist and homophobic and kick old people and Cub Scouts and puppies

[liberalnarb]

18. Homophobic?? Racist?

[Ken Burch]

21. They've thrown both of those at us.

Apparently, you're a bigot if you don't think HRC is owed a coronation.

[pnwmom]

67. No. Not unless they start talking about "playing" the "gender card."

For more than 200 years, men have held all 44 Presidential cards.

[Ken Burch]

13. It's right-wingers who won't vote for a woman or a poc, not Sanders supporters.

1) HRC isn't owed the nomination because of sexism, and everybody who backs Bernie would still do so if Bernie was short for Berniece and Hillary was Hilary(a man's name in England).

2) It doesn't defeat sexism to support a wealthy, pro-corporate, militarist woman.

3) It would also defeat bigotry to nominate someone who is Jewish to be president(myself, I'd prefer getting a twofer and nominating Bella Abzug, but she is metaphysically ineligible at present).

Progressive opposition to HRC has never been about misogyny. It is solely based on the big chunks of conservatism in her program and her history.

[liberalnarb]

20. They will vote for a woman, but only if she herself hates women.

**COUGHFIORINACOUGH***

[KingCharlemagne]

78. OT but Bella Abzug would have been a totally awesome President, as

would Shirley Chisholm. HRC? Meh, not so much.

Thanks for the memories.

[Ken Burch]

104. Agreed.

And if Barbara Lee were ever to run, I'd be totally on side with her.

[Douglas Carpenter]

25. that is as legitimate as claiming Hillary supporters are motivated by anti-Semitism

because Bernie is Jewish. This kind of nonsense is not going to trick anyone into changing their vote.

[Scootaloo]

42. You're making some amazing leaps of logic there.

[stillwaiting]

79. Why won't you vote for the first Jewish candidate with a real shot at the Presidency?

Are you anti-semitic?

How does that feel?

For the record: Electing our nation's first Jewish President would be a truly historic and ground-breaking accomplishment. Not to mention Bernie is MUCH better than HRC on the ISSUES that we supposedly care about.

Let's focus on the issues shall we?

[peacebird]

87. ^^^this!^^^

[seabeyond]

90. The issue? That Sanders cannot get close to Clinton in the Democratic primary. Yet, it is suggested

we should give the man a coronation because he is more likely to win the GE as the OP states. WE, the party of lesser bigotry overwhelmingly want Clinton. Going into the Ge, it is suggested she would have the tougher time, with Republican and teabagger votes.

I do not buy that personally, that Sanders would have an easier time in GE. I have seen plenty of polls that would contradict that conclusions.

As ground breaking as being Jewish would be, he is a white man and will more easily get the vote of the right, or of bigots than Clinton. A woman.

And there can be and has been an argument had, with Sanders being better on the issues. Obviously not all agree with you, seeing how Clinton has two to one vote.

And not voting in the preferred candidate because as a woman she may have a tougher time is the issue.

[redstateblues]

6. Honeymoon in Moscow?

[Furrfu]

10. Sister Cities.

Part of Sanders' time as mayor of Burlington was spent setting up "sister cities" with other "progressive" municipalities. Yaroslavl was one such place, and he visited with his new wife in 1988.

So he went there as an official of Burlington, VT to Yaroslavl, Russia as a official "sister cities" meeting and whatever they do.

So I wouldn't call that a honeymoon. More of an official trip.

[Thinkingabout]

14. Maybe it was set up to get the trip paid, hum, i wonder why this happened

Last edited Fri Dec 25, 2015, 05:36 AM - Edit history (1)

It would have been less expensive for him to have gone alone.

[beam me up scottie]

26. Because you know how cheap those people are, amirite?

[redstateblues]

17. "Trust me" Bernie said," It was a very strange honeymoon"

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/the-25-best-things-we-learned-bernie-sanders-book

[HoneychildMooseMoss]

22. One of my university professors honeymooned in Russia

In February, no less. Because the Intourist rates were cheapest then.
Like Bernie, that was just before the end of the Soviet Bloc.

[pnwmom]

65. He calls it a honeymoon, so it doesn't matter what you would call it.

[haikugal]

15. Does that somehow make your toes curl?

[beam me up scottie]

32. Haven't you heard? They're after our precious bodily fluids!

[haikugal]

45. You win the tubes!!

[artislife]

30. You must be sad you missed the McCarthy era.

You sure there isn't someone in the clown car you really would rather vote for?

[redstateblues]

11. Bernie will never get past Super Tuesday

Much less to Philly

[Rosa Luxemburg]

24. That's what they said in 2008

re Obama

[Thinkingabout]

12. It will be a definite victory of delegates for Hillary, the direction will

Have established by Super Tuesday.

[brooklynite]

23. So we should disregard the choice of the Democratic voters?

[gwheezie]

27. Why would Bernie be nominated

If Hillary has the delegates? Then what's the point of a party primary? If Bernie has the delegates, he'll be nominated, that's how it works but you don't want it to work that way for Hillary? I don't understand your post at all.

[JunkyardAngel83]

44. Wishful thinking? n/t

[rjsquirrel]

62. Exactly

Funny how people complain about unfairness and then want to pre-fix the process.

I predict -- even as a longtime Sanders fan --!that HRC wraps up 75% of delegates by April. I've been around long enough (I canvassed for McGovern as a kid!) to know delusional progressive thinking when I see it.

Can you just see the Koch/Adelson money poured into ads showing Kruschev and Stalin and gray breadlines and red flags as a deep scary voice asks "Is America ready for a SOCIALIST?" They will swift boat Sanders same as any democrat. The difference with Hillary is they've been at it for 20 years and she is still standing tough.

I've adored Bernie longer than many people knew who he was. They also said Obama was unelectable. I know.

Bernie Sanders is a great man. He ain't no Barack Obama.

[NCTraveler]

28. Republicans won't dictate my vote.

And you are talking about a candidate who has not been vetted on the national stage. you will know he is close to Clinton if her campaign starts to seriously vet him. There has been no need for anything serious to this point.

[artislife]

31. Hillary was vetted and lost last time (the Only time) she was on a National stage

NY voted for her and got her into office, but no one else did.

[NCTraveler]

33. Clinton lost against one of the best campaigners we have ever seen.

You say Sanders can do the same. I disagree. And if you are talking wins and losses, Sanders has lost more campaigns than Clinton has been in. the primary is a good testing ground. If Clinton is what you say, this will be a walk in the park for Sanders.

[artislife]

46. I am saying that nationally, we already have rejected her once.

That was her vetting. A loss. The Democrats rejected her.

You seemed to have a thought that she has been vetted nationally and won. Which is untrue.

[NCTraveler]

57. You seem to be saying I said something I never did.

And I find the Obama did it so Sanders can to so beyond any possible argument that I don't even amuse the discussion.

[artislife]

91. Oh...you didn't write this?

And you are talking about a candidate who has not been vetted on the national stage.

That seems to imply that you are voting for someone who has been vetted on the national stage. That is Hilary. Who was vetted and rejected.

[pnwmom]

69. She barely lost, by 1/10 of a percent, to a candidate who had very strong

support among southern Democrats, and among African Americans and Latinos.

Hillary is stronger than Bernie in all those groups, and among women. He could take a few early races but he's not going to win.

[pnwmom]

35. Obama only had one-tenth of 1% more votes than HRC.

Last edited Fri Dec 25, 2015, 04:01 AM - Edit history (1)

"NY voted for her and got her into office, but no one else did."



Final vote count: Obama: 48.0%, Clinton: 48.1%


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Ken Burch]

51. It still goes without saying that she would have done much worse in the fall in '08.

McCain would have been in a dead heat with her, and all the enthusiasm in the Democratic base would have vanished, because no one anywhere thought there would be any major change if she won. Even her supporters pretty much figured she would just do Bill's stuff again, that she wouldn't be more progressive than him on anything. And there was no reason to think otherwise.

[pnwmom]

53. Wrong. It goes without saying that millions of women would have been thrilled

to cast their votes for the first women President in the U.S. history. And the strong coalition of minority Democrats that helped put Obama over the President would have been happy to join them.

McCain and Palin were always a weak ticket and they would have been just as weak against Hillary.

She had only 1/10 of a percent fewer supporters than Obama, and their enthusiasm wouldn't have suddenly vanished.

[Scuba]

54. I give women a lot more credit than you apparently do.

[pnwmom]

56. It doesn't discredit anyone to support Hillary any more than it discredits

you to support Bernie.

We all have the same basic goals -- just different ideas of how to best accomplish them.

[Scuba]

58. Your suggestion that women will vote for Hillary because she's a woman is degrading. Shame on you.

[pnwmom]

61. Hardly. When black people were thrilled to vote for Barack Obama, that wasn't degrading.

Voting for Hillary wouldn't be either.

Most Dems think Hillary is just as good or better a candidate than Bernie, with a firmer grasp on many of the issues, and a stronger campaign organization; being the first woman President would be the icing on the cake.

[mythology]

75. Yes, unfounded assertions should go without being said (what with being unfounded)

You offer no proof other than your proclamation that she wouldn't have generated enthusiasm. In the primary states, she finished in a near dead heat with Obama. She obviously was doing something right even if you personally don't like her.

[pnwmom]

66. delete (dupe)

[pnwmom]

36. That's not how it works. We got rid of smoke-filled rooms run by party bigwigs long ago.

If a candidate accumulates a majority of delegates there will be NO brokered convention.

[rjsquirrel]

63. Yes

Exactly.

What kind of progressive would want it any other way?

[creeksneakers2]

37. Can't ignore the will of rank and file

voters. If the voters' choice isn't doing well the party will have to work hard to change that.

[rjsquirrel]

64. Lol whut?

The rank and file are the people who vote. The person who wins the most states wins the most delegates wins the primary. Period.

A brokered fix-is-in result would destroy the party (especially if used to promote a man over a woman). Bernie would never survive it any more than Bernie voters would accept a brokered nomination of HRC if Bernie won more delegates.


This thread is weird and dreamy. If you think Bernie has a better chance then work to get him elected. If he can't beat Hillary fair and square he can't possibly best Rubio or Cruz.

See you at Clinton's acceptance speech, bucko.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

71. Please see Post 49 and 70

There is simply no evidence to support the assertion that Bernie Sanders would be a stronger general election candidate than Secretary Clinton.

[KingCharlemagne]

80. Small matter of etiquette that may be revelatory of something deeper, but

why do you say "Bernie Sanders" but "Secretary Clinton"? Why don't you say "Senator Sanders"? Are you simply lazy or are you being deliberately disrespectful? Your attitude is sure to win over Sanders' supporters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

82. I treat people the way they treat me.

Merry Christmas.

[KingCharlemagne]

83. So you're disrespectful to Senator Sanders because he

disrespected you???? Something does not compute.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

84. I don't think I was being disrespectful toward the senator

I don't think I was being disrespectful toward the senator when I described him without mentioning his honorific. In the future I will try to be more circumspect.

Merry Christmas.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. Can someone please provide the empirical evidence for this observation in light of this:

"If we get to Philly and the polls STILL show Bernie doing better than HRC against the GOP..."

Can someone please provide the empirical evidence for this observation in light of this:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner/

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/679864639593787392


Thank you in advance.

Happy holidays

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. And this

[rjsquirrel]

55. Whoever gets the most delegates

in the primary wins the nomination. Just like 2008.

What's so complicated? Republicans need brokered conventions. If Bernie can win nationally in the general then he can beat HRC in the primaries. If he can't beat her with Dems he can't win nationally.


This is fantasy anyway. As soon as Koch money starts funding ads comparing Sanders to Stalin and showing stock footage of Soviet era Russia get back to me. Hillary has had every test hate-bomb in the world thrown at her already.

[peacebird]

88. Sadly if Hillary is our nominee we will lose the White House

[rjsquirrel]

101. Sadly

You are talking out your ass about your own opinion. That's not what most experts think.

[peacebird]

102. Most experts didn't see Obama winning at this stage of the 2008 cycle either

Guess i'm a Smart Ass,

[rjsquirrel]

105. Plenty did

I predicted it myself.

Bernie ain't Barack.

We will see.

[peacebird]

106. LOL!

[mmonk]

68. I recommended this on the basis of 1968.

Not sure I agree on what to do about it though.

[firebrand80]

72. Once the nomination is mathematically wrapped up, those polls won't exist.

No pollster is going to waste time and money polling Bernie as a GE candidate.

Of course, that won't stop Bernie supporters from claiming that they're not doing so because of the Grand Oligarch Conspiracy.

[Betty Karlson]

73. K&R for truth.

[KingCharlemagne]

77. She is our generation's Adlai Stevenson. - nt

[99Forever]

81. ^^^This.^^^

Always an Also Ran.

[artislife]

92. Vetted and rejected. nt

[Thinkingabout]

85. Does your OP also mean if Hillary gets the majority of the delegates and arrives at the convention

will you be insisting on not accepting Hillary as the nominee? Also, the poll will not be happening if the delegates swings in favor of Hillary, at least the scientific polls.

[Codeine]

96. Oh good fucking grief.

We'll nominate whoever has the most votes.

[tammywammy]

99. As soon as a candidate has enough delegates there won't be polling with the other candidates.

BTW, the whole idea of super delegates is to prevent the party from nominating an unviable candidate for the general election.