One Month to Go in Iowa...Where Do We Stand?

[tgards79]

Hillary holding firm, comfortably ahead of Bernie, and Ted Cruz makes his move. But lots can change in the last month....right?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/01/december-month-in-review-one-month.html

[FloridaBlues]

1. Yep anything can happen her lead may even get stronger !

[CorporatistNation]

31. Funny With All 'O That Support Nobody Shows Worth A Shit For Her Events .. Even W/ Billy Compared

To The Bernmeister Commander! The polls are Full Blown BS... They are by definition NOT Random therefor are IRRELEVANT! Relates to the structural changes in communication... The mass dumping of landlines and the fact that those who are not and cannot be effectively randomly polled are going to FUCKING VOTE THIS TIME and put the lady in the pantsuits in retirement.

[99Forever]

2. Another day...

... another totally biased "poll."



Trash thread. Bub bye.

[tgards79]

3. What is biased about it?

It is simply putting together all the existing polls. How is that biased?

[99Forever]

4. Everything.

Anybody who this kind of bullshit from some unknown blogger on the intertubes, is a sure sale for ocean front property in Nebraska.

[SCantiGOP]

5. Are you psychic?

How did you see the response after you trashed the thread?

[99Forever]

6. New to the internet, are you?

Need some help in understanding how notification of responses to My Posts works?

Hillarians aren't real net savvy, are they?

[SCantiGOP]

7. No, I'm not

But your blathering and attitude are certainly not new around here.

[99Forever]

8. Really?

And you still can't follow the basic functioning of a rather simple website link?

So you turn to a childish attempt at a pathetic personal insult instead?

Well, isn't that special?

Bless your heart for trying.

[SCantiGOP]

9. No surprise

That you have 4 threads hidden. Better clean up your act.

[99Forever]

11. My act is just fine.

Camp Weather alert trolls get a win every now and then. Frankly, I expect it and consider it a badge of honor to be one of their targets. It shows me just how desperate they are to silence the TRUTH.

When the lights come on, we all know what scurries away.

[tgards79]

12. What are you talking about?

Do you understand that Bernie is 15-20 points behind in Iowa?

[comradebillyboy]

27. Something about a river in Egypt...

[quickesst]

13. Hahaha

.... I don't think it's the truth they're trying to silence. It's probably more like the.........🐂💩!

[tgards79]

10. What bullshit?

It's an add up of all the polls, month by month. Nothing fancy. Where is the bullshit? Or are you just mad the Iowa polls are indicating Bernie is stuck 15-20 points behind Hillary with no change in November or December?

[Ino]

15. That website is totally in the tank for Hillary...

That's what's biased about it.

His gushing Hillary-worshipping analysis of the second debate told me all I needed to know about anything that blogger has to say:

Hillary Clinton had a workmanlike evening; she had good moments, but more importantly, she is proving herself to be the Troy Tulowitski of presidential candidates, as both have phenomenal streaks of errorless performance. She is poised and tough, and she has a well-rehearsed counter-punch at the ready for just about every sling and arrow.

Her highlight for the evening came when Bernie implied that Hillary was hostage to Wall Street interests because she accepts their big-money campaign donations. Hillary pounced, pointing out that as the Senator from New York, she had worked extremely hard to help the financial sector recover from the impact of 9/11. Seeming to race to her side, the moderator turned the question back on Bernie and asked if he could cite evidence that Clinton had actually been influenced by Wall Street money, which drew no response. Finally, Hillary went on to score her biggest slam of the evening, noting that 65% of her campaign contributions were from women.

[tgards79]

16. Website not biased...

One writer covers the debates and calls them as he sees them. Another writer covers the numbers objectively.

[artislife]

23. Nine Eleven! nt

[Ino]

32. And the writer who covers the numbers...

you know, the one with the "Hillometer" gauging Hillary's strength in a general election? ... introduces the Hillary-worshipping writer thusly:
"Steve tells you all you really need to know about the third Democratic debate."

A real tag-team.

[comradebillyboy]

14. What I found interesting in the linked article was the assertion that

Last edited Fri Jan 1, 2016, 07:35 PM - Edit history (1)

a win in Iowa could result in a 10-15 point bump in NH. I'd like to think that's true but he didn't provide the data to support his statement. For instance Obama won Iowa in 08, but Hillary won NH, so it appears that Obama didn't see a bump in NH unless polling had Obama way behind at that time. In any event I think the sample size is too small to draw a strong conclusion about the Iowa bump prediction.

[tgards79]

17. The article said 5-10, not 10-15

Nate Silver says it is worth +7.

[comradebillyboy]

18. Sorry, I experienced a senior moment there, but Nate Silver's track record does lend

more credibility to the bump assertion. If the current Iowa polling is correct (I have no reason to doubt it) that bodes well for Hillary in NH given the narrow lead Sanders now holds.

BTW I am 68 so no bullshit complaints about ageism; I'm allowed to make fun of my own frailties.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Bush* won IA in 00 and got shellacked in NH.

Maybe it's different for Democrats.

[comradebillyboy]

21. Don't know, I'm not willing to dig up all the old data and do

the statistical analysis. Silver has earned enough credibility for me to take his analysis seriously. I would be curious about the margin of error on that 7% number. In any event I have to get vicarious thrills from other state's primaries since the nomination will be decided long before the New Mexico primary occurs.

[Cal33]

24. I just have no confidence in the MSM whatsoever. They simply publish what their

Wall Street masters tell them to publish. And we know that Wall Street wants
Hillary to win.

[tgards79]

25. What is "MSM"?

Confused.

[Ned_Devine]

30. Main Stream Media

[tgards79]

33. Paranoia strikes deep...

...Wall Street wanted Hillary to beat Obama in 2008. And Romney to win in 2012. The polls that showed their fates got published anyway.

[tgards79]

22. I'm 58!

I would never make fun of us aging yet active types!

[Control-Z]

29. What age do we become old enough

to be of that age? No bs complaints about ageism age? I've been wondering lately.

[comradebillyboy]

34. Let me quote the late Warren Zevon to answer that:

'The shit that used to work
Well it don't work now'
from the song 'My Shit's Fucked Up'

That's when I started to feel like an old man, and I could either laugh or cry about my body crapping out. I try to make light of my physical limitations and enjoy what I can still enjoy.

[tgards79]

26. Here's the link to Nate's piece on it...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/16/do-iowa-polls-predict-new-hampshire-results/?_r=0

[comradebillyboy]

35. Thanks for the informative link...nt

[cherokeeprogressive]

20. I stand with Bernie.

[restorefreedom]

28. me too, and just because i can't help it,

yeeeaaaaaaaaaawwwwww! (channeling h. dean)

yeah, i know he is for hillary now, but damn that was a good moment......