Looks like a new Quinnipiac Iowa poll will be released next week

[CoffeeCat]

I live in Iowa and I was called tonight. The pollster said they were only calling Iowa voters.

They asked me how likely was it that I would caucus. When I said that I "definitely" would, the pollster said, "Ok, I can proceed with the next questions." The results tend to be far more accurate when likely caucus goers are polled---as opposed to polling only registered Dems or Dems who have caucused before.

I was asked the standard questions: For which candidate would I caucus? Who was my second choice? How likely was I to change my mind?

They also asked me if I viewed the three candidates favorably/unfavorably; and which candidate would better handle issues concerning: income equality/the environment/foreign policy/education/etc.

I haven't seen a Democratic poll come out of Iowa for a while. I'm looking forward to hearing the results.

The methodology seems pretty sound in this poll, but I'll have to read more when the poll is released. If their methods are science-based, similar to Selzer's Iowa Poll (and it appears that they are), I'll take this as a reliable poll.

Selzer's last Iowa Poll, released 6 weeks ago, had Bernie behind by 9.

My sense is that he's moved up 5-6 points in Iowa since then.

[thereismore]

1. Were you called on a landline? nt

[CoffeeCat]

3. No, I was called on my cell

The pollster asked me if my number was a land line or a cell.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

2. Are you a Hillary Clinton supporter?

I am mobile, so I can't see avatars and signatures.

[CoffeeCat]

4. I support Bernie (nt)

[Godhumor]

5. Quinnipac last had a spread of +11, so there will be your comparison n/t

[CoffeeCat]

6. Looks like Clinton was up by 9 in the last Quinnipiac poll (November 25, 2015)

I was asked the same questions that are referenced in the last Quinnipiac Iowa poll that was taken in November.

Bernie was only behind 9 points in that November poll.

Quinnipiac's methodology (and their results) nearly mirror Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll that was also taken in late November. I'm happy to see a reliable poll (and it's kind of fun to be a part of it!). Selzer had Bernie behind by 9 as well.

If we see some movement from November, this will be a very good sign for Bernie. It will signal that he is closing the deal, as Iowans just barely creep into the "fully engaged" final phase of caucus season. Positive movement for Bernie would also signal that Clinton's "inevitability" is eroding in Iowa.

A few points is all he needs right now. If that upward trend continues into January, we will have a very tight race come Feb 1--and then it all comes down to who has the most enthusiastic supporters and who can get their supporters to the caucuses.

Given that he started out in Iowa in April '15 with .8 percent--he's done very well here.

I'm really hoping for those few points, because if he is trending upward then he will definitely benefit from the last two weeks of the caucus season, in which Iowans will be fully engaged, with the candidates doing rallies nearly everyday and the caucuses dominating the Iowa media. Those two weeks are when most Iowans solidify their choices. Anything can happen during those last two weeks, and if he's got some movement going into that critical time--he could win it.

I've mentioned what is happening in Iowa as far as candidate rallies. Sander's rallies are growing in size. He was attracting 1,500--2000. He's now attracting 2,500--as reported by the Des Moines Register for his recent Sioux City rally. Clinton's rallies are attracting around 400. I attended a Clinton rally at the Iowa Historical Museum in downtown Des Moines. Held at 5:45 p.m., that event should have been huge. Many people were getting off work in the area. Des Moines is Iowa's largest city. I attended the same rally (in the same location in 2008) and her crowd was nearly twice the size.

Her crowds in general have been smaller--200-350. They are getting bigger though by a couple of hundred, and will most likely grow bigger, especially the last two weeks of the campaign.

I imagine that Bernie's rallies will continue to swell as well. I think this could have a major impact on perceptions and his viability. The optics of large rallies can be impactful. Furthermore, the Iowa media is no longer ignoring him. He's got a regular beat reporter who covers all rallies. Bernie stories are now on the front page of the Des Moines Register, which was not the case six weeks ago.
Pool reporters from national broadcast and print outlets are with him now as well. It was a near-Bernie blackout before.

I have a very good feeling about Iowa. And I can't wait to see the results of this Quinnipiac poll.

[Godhumor]

7. +11 Last poll was 12/4 - 12/13 n/t

[CoffeeCat]

8. I stand corrected, but my original thoughts/analysis still stands

because when the last two Quinnipiac polls were conducted in Iowa, the political dynamics/attitudes were very similar. In late November and early December, Iowa was in a political lull.

Iowans were focused on the holidays and were not yet into the heated phase of the season. We're just starting to enter it now.

The Quinnipiac polling that will be released next week--began on Tuesday and will continue for the next few days. This is not a "lull time" as we are beginning to enter the crazy caucus season.

I see that Clinton moved +2 from late November - mid-December. Most likely due to terrorism and foreign-policy dominating the political discussion during that time. She does well and shines when those topics are at the top of the headlines.

Thanks for the correction. I look forward to looking at all of the data from the last few Quinnipiac polls. Their methods appear to be very reputable and their questions are thorough/interesting.

[progressoid]

9. I was called by Marist a couple days ago.

Looking forward to that one too.

Standard questions as well: Age. Gender. Party affiliation. Likely to caucus. Favored candidate. Etc.

However, when asked "if the election were held today...." they only asked 'Clinton vs Trump', 'Clinton vs Rubio' and 'Clinton vs Cruz'. I understand that they were chosen because they are the top contenders, but I would like to know how Bernie fares against those three as well.

[kenfrequed]

10. The only poll that matters is the caucus

No matter what the results.

Whether it favors Bernie or Hillary we still need to work extra hard to Bern the Turnout!

[jeff47]

11. Polling in IA has historically been a very poor predictor.

The caucus results have not followed polling in many of the last caucuses, on both sides of the aisle.

For example, Santorum's win in 2012 was not close to what polls predicted. Clinton's 3rd place result in 2008 was also not close to what polls predicted.

Polls are a much better predictor in primary states than in caucus states.

[CoffeeCat]

12. Actually, there were a few polls that predicted the Iowa 2008 caucus results

Ann Selzer's Des Moines Register/Iowa Poll was very close to the 2008 Iowa caucus results. She's got polling in Iowa down to a science. Nate Silver gave her an A+ rating for her science-based methodology; a rating he only gave to three pollsters.

"The recent track record of her firm, Selzer & Company, is impressive: Selzer, who has polled for the Des Moines Register for decades, was the only pollster to nail the order of Democratic candidates in 2004. Her final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucusgoers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory. Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge in the waning days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151 <-----Great read on Selzer's "Secret Sauce".

It's a shame, but many polls belong in the trash heap. A few months ago, I started reading the methodology behind many polls. Many are anti-science, so lazy, sloppy and unprofessional--you have to wonder. Such a waste of time. Furthermore, these trash polls are factored into rolling averages, which ends up tainting the numbers. I don't even look at RCP for these reasons.

As the Iowa caucus draws near, I follow Selzer/Des Moines Register and take seriously any pollster who follows her methodology.

The Quinnipiac poll seems to use the same methods. I'll read further and decide if it's valid. However, their practices seem valid, from what I've read so far.