Today's good polling in Iowa - Sanders 45%, Clinton 48%, O'Malley 5%
Today's NBC poll is a live cell/landline poll of likely voters.
The overall numbers are good (showing Sanders within 3%) and the trend from the last NBC poll in Iowa is also good:
NBC has not been very active in Iowa so it may be useful to add in the Iowa polling by Quinnipiac (which also uses live cell/landline poll of likely voters and has done the most live phone polling in Iowa) and the Iowa polling by the Des Moines Register (which also uses live cell/landline poll of likely voters and has the best record for accuracy):
The trend still looks very good.
This is really a nice follow up to yesterday's massive polling result in New Hampshire - Sanders 50%, Clinton 37%, O'Malley 3%
A poll is not a vote so we need to keep on working, but this is a good report card for the campaign which tells us we are on the right track.
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!
= new reply since forum marked as read
GOOD FOR SANDERS!
Plus, you don't have to be a psychic to identify a trend here or project where that trend line might lead on caucus day if we keep up the hard work!
In case you are trend-blind, here's a road map:
There is hard work ahead to make this possibility a reality, but this looks promising.
Of equal import: polling trends are usually not linear.
Whatevs. Last six months:
As of today, Clinton leads Sanders by roughly 11%.
Fine.
Gravis, Monmouth, PPP:
Clinton killin' it at 17 points!
... "enthusiasm" is code for "behind in the polls".
Its one of the lamest statistical "slight of hand" techniques ever developed.
Since you're fond of predictions based on linear trends, let's try this:
Here's the one-month poll of polls:
The spread has narrowed by about three points. Go ahead. Do your magic!