"What about Mondale?" indeed: 1976-1980

[merrily]

Last edited Thu Jan 14, 2016, 09:58 PM - Edit history (2)

I've described Reagan. http://www.democraticunderground.com/12778872

Rather than describe Mondale next, I'll go to the Carter/Mondale joint efforts.

The Party line is that Carter/Mondale lost the 1980 Presidential election because of a primary challenge from Kennedy--supposedly a reason not to have a primary when an incumbent Democrat is running for re-election. Apparently, that has morphed into an attempt to avoid primaries, even when no Democratic incumbent is running.

See http://www.democraticunderground.com/12776064 (Thread entitled: Does the Party discourage primaries and, if so, how realistic is populist reform?)

But, was a primary challenge really why Carter/Mondale lost the general?

First, compare the two personalities at the top of the tickets. Incumbent Carter, earnest, soft spoken, unassuming, maybe a tad "underanimated;" national name recognition of 2% just before he first ran for President, v. challenger Reagan, as described in this post. http://www.democraticunderground.com/12778872

Carter was relatively conservative; a World War II veteran; a Governor of a Southern state, giving him a built in Southern strategy; unquestionably and overtly religious--sounds like the DLC's dream candidate. To boot, he seemed like just what the doctor ordered after Nixon-Watergate-Ford. As his running mate, Carter chose Minnesota's Mondale. And he was the only candidate with a national strategy. Moreover, while media had been portraying Ford as a bungler who couldn't get out of his own way, the media promoted Carter. Additionally, Ford's pardon of Nixon remained a sore spot with many.

"Carter became the first contender from the Deep South to be elected President since the 1848 election......with the largest percentage of the popular vote (50.1 percent) of any non-incumbent since Dwight Eisenhower." https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Jimmy_Carter

However, quite a few of the events during Carter's administration made many talking heads and voters' heads explode.

On Inauguration Day, Carter quietly signed an executive order granting amnesty to those who had "dodged the draft" during the Vietnam War.

During Carter's term as President, he created two new cabinet-level departments: the Department of Energy and the Department of Education. He established a national energy policy that included conservation, price control, and new technology. In foreign affairs, Carter pursued the Camp David Accords, the Panama Canal Treaties, the second round of Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT II), and returned the Panama Canal Zone to Panama. On the economic front he confronted persistent "stagflation", a combination of high inflation, high unemployment and slow growth. The end of his presidential tenure was marked by the 1979–1981 Iran hostage crisis, the 1979 energy crisis, the Three Mile Island nuclear accident, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In response to the Soviet move he ended détente, escalated the Cold War, and led the international boycott of the 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow. By 1980, Carter's popularity had eroded.

id.

He alienated liberal college students, who were expected to be his base, by re-instating registration for the military draft. His campaign manager and former appointments secretary, Timothy Kraft, stepped down some five weeks before the general election amid what turned out to have been an uncorroborated allegation of cocaine use.[68] . id.

There was also a failed attempt to rescue the hostages, a bail out of Chrysler and the Love Canal SuperFund. And Ted Koppel giving a nightly count of how many days it had been since the hostages had been taken. Also, the Equal Rights Amendment had been languishing in Constitutional limbo, losing enthusiasm for Carter, even though he supported the ERA.

That's a lot, but I am guessing the wretched economy that had persisted for much of his term and lines at the gasoline stations may have been foremost in the minds of voters.

Kennedy did challenge Carter, but ran a surprisingly poor campaign. Meanwhile, Republicans had nominated Reagan.

The 1980 election is considered by some to be a realigning election, reaching a climate of confrontation practically not seen since 1932. Reagan's supporters praise him for running a campaign of upbeat optimism.[18] David Frum says Carter ran an attack-based campaign based on "despair and pessimism" which "cost him the election."[19] Carter emphasized his record as a peacemaker, and said Reagan's election would threaten civil rights and social programs that stretched back to the New Deal. Reagan's platform also emphasized the importance of peace, as well as a prepared self-defense.[18]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980

Carter was criticized by his own aides for not having a "grand plan" for the recovery of the economy, nor did he ever make any campaign promises; he often criticized Reagan's economic recovery plan, but did not create one of his own in response.

id.

While a good segment of Carter's base had been alienated, Reagan sought the votes of women by such means as promising to nominate the first female Supreme Court Justice. Additionally, Carter refused to participate in debates until two weeks before the election. So, only Reagan and a third party rightist candidate participated, and, of course, both blamed Carter.

See also http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024967786 (Presidential losses in the 1980s were due to centrism).

As had happened with McGovern in 1972, Democrats defected to Reagan, and the growing NRA weighed in:

In September 1980, former Watergate scandal prosecutor Leon Jaworski accepted a position as honorary chairman of Democrats for Reagan.[24] Five months earlier, Jaworski had harshly criticized Reagan as an "extremist;" he said after accepting the chairmanship, "I would rather have a competent extremist than an incompetent moderate."[24]

Former Democratic Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota (who in 1968 had challenged Lyndon Johnson from the left, causing the then-President to all but abdicate) endorsed Reagan.[36]

Three days before the November 4 voting in the election, the National Rifle Association endorsed a presidential candidate for the first time in its history, backing Reagan. Reagan had received the California Rifle and Pistol Association's Outstanding Public Service Award. Carter had appointed Abner J. Mikva, a fervent proponent of gun control, to a federal judgeship and had supported the Alaska Lands Bill, closing 40,000,000 acres (160,000 km2) to hunting.

id.


Did Carter/Mondale actually lose the 1980 election because of a primary challenge to a relatively conservative, Southern incumbent President by a big, bad Northern liberal? Or did a relatively conservative, Southern Governor and his running mate lose to Reagan on their own? Why is the only lesson we're taught about this electoral loss that incumbents should never be primaried?

[unblock]

1. incumbent primary challenge is correlated with losing the general, but

that doesn't mean the primary challenge is to blame.

more likely, it's a symptom, i.e., an early indicator that the incumbent party is going to lose the general.

quite simply, if the incumbent's first administration is going great and the economy is humming along nicely, then re-election is quite likely. because things are going well and because re-election is likely, there's little incentive for anyone in the party to launch a serious challenge.

conversely, if there are scandals and failures and the economy is in the dump, then the incumbent party is likely headed for defeat in november. this is precisely the environment that attracts challengers.


i think you have to go back to 1856 (james buchanan) to find an example of a someone beating the incumbent in the primary and going on to win the general.

[merrily]

2. Thank you. I agree.

And, in this case, the Republican was an unusually strong candidate in the bargain.

[Vincardog]

3. Don't forget the deal Ray Gun made with the Iranians not to release the hostages until after the

Election and that he gave them weapons.

[merrily]

4. Thanks. Good that you posted that.

I did think of it at the start, but must have zoned out when I got to the point where I should have put it.

Thanks to you, it's on the thread though.