Tomorrow is not the end...not by far...

[datguy_6]

As the race currently stands, Hillary leads Bernie by 26 amongst pledged delegates (91 to 65).

As many articles have pointed out, the primary schedule is front-loaded with states that favor Hillary's advantage amongst older African Americans, especially women. Hillary has spent a ton of money on advertising and campaign infrastructure in order to try and kill Bernie's campaign tomorrow.

So tomorrow is going to suck, but the point is to #1 acknowledge it and #2 keep the fight going.

First off, the bad...

If the current voting trends hold, we'll see a repeat of SC in the states of GA, AL, AR and TN.

So for those states, lets project a result of Hillary - 75% and Bernie - 25%:

Alabama - 53 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 40 and Bernie earns 13
Arkansas - 32 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 24 and Bernie earns 8
Georgia - 102 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 77 and Bernie earns 25
Tennessee - 67 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 50 and Bernie earns 17

That totals 191 for Hillary and 63 for Bernie which is a net gain of 128 delegates and her lead grows to 154 delegates

We should expect closer races in TX and VA; so let's assume Bernie loses 60% to 40%

Texas - 222 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 133 and Bernie earns 89
Virginia - 95 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 57 and Bernie earns 38

That totals 190 for Hillary and 127 for Bernie, which is a net gain of 63 delegates and her lead grows to 207 delegates

Now lets also assume Bernie has some close losses in CO, MN and MA Clinton 55% to Bernie 45%

Colorado - 66 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 36 and Bernie earns 30
Massachusetts - 91 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 50 and Bernie earns 41
Minnesota - 77 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 42 and Bernie earns 35

That totals 128 for Hillary and 106 for Bernie, which is a net gain of 22 delegates and her lead grows to 229 delegates

Lastly, lets assume that Bernie wins OK (55% to 45%) and VT in a landslide (80% to 20%)

Oklahoma - 38 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 17 and Bernie earns 21
Vermont - 16 pledged delegates: Hillary earns 3 and Bernie earns 13

That totals 20 for Hillary and 34 for Bernie, which is a net loss of 14 delegates and her lead drops to 215 delegates

So with 3,017 pledged delegates to go, a 215 vote lead (roughly 7.1% of all remaining delegates) is not insurmountable.

Additionally, Hillary's campaign has spent a lot of money and is tapping out its donor base. If we can manage to make it through her full-court press over the next 2 -3 weeks, we will in a good position.

And who knows what will happen with her FBI investigation...

Keep the faith and please don't get discouraged...

I'm doing my part tomorrow and voting in the VA primary...

[onecaliberal]

1. Bernie is going to win California and a lot of delegates

[datguy_6]

6. I've got that feeling too...

[Live and Learn]

15. +10,000 nt

[Art_from_Ark]

2. Thanks for the analysis

It sounds very plausible.
At least I've contributed to getting an Arkansas delegate for Bernie

[datguy_6]

4. Sweet...and I'm assuming worse case tomorrow...

Keep canvassing and promoting...

[Aquavit]

3. I'm going to do my part tomorrow

and caucus (for the first time ever!) in Minnesota!

[datguy_6]

5. Awesome...

Keep us posted on how it goes...

[onecaliberal]

7. Yay! Thank you

[thereismore]

8. Sounds reasonable. Go Bernie. nt

[Baobab]

9. Hillary's platform is going to decimate the public sector

By design. Included there will be huge numbers of government employees, teachers, etc.

Also, the 1999 repeal of Glass-Steagall Act hit black families equity particularly hard in 2008

The Clinton era WTO General agreement on trade in services is also causing lock in on health care and preventing affordable health care.

The United States has been completely misled on health care by their hiding of GATS.

[mikehiggins]

10. Another question is how many states HRC will take will be ours in November? n/t

[datguy_6]

19. Maybe VA...but even that is in doubt...

[jillan]

11. As long as Bernie has money coming in, he should stay in no matter what.

He is representing millions of people.

[lmbradford]

12. New Zealand

He already won the 1st super tues contest by 71%. Lets start by adding those delegates.

[JudyM]

13. What would you say is the range for a decent delegate count for Bernie in VA?

I've been training canvassers... My location knocked on something over 1000 doors over these last 3 days. Didn't seem like much but it adds up. So many damned undecideds.

[datguy_6]

18. Keeping the deficit between 100 and 150 delegates

That would mean performing better in the South (>35% in AL, AR, GA and TN), losing by less than 20% in VA and TX and winning 5 states (MA, MN, CO, VT and OK)...

Anything is possible, but I'm just trying to keep this real (the last 5 polls in MA show Clinton up by 7%)...

[jillan]

14. As long as we keep funding Bernie he should stay in. Candidates usually drop out when they run out

of money.

Bernie speaks for millions of Americans. We want our message heard.

[swilton]

16. One thing that I'm doing tomorrow is continuing to post to f/b

This may sound trivial but social media does get the news out. And cheerleaders like Tim Black and the Young Turk are always good to have on to keep the spirits up.

In the group that I run, I have small numbers of people from around the country - I think they must be Sanders staffers. But anyway, one of those requested several of us active on the site to post to other states with less active social media....haven't actually tried it yet but apparently it can be done remotely.

[MrMickeysMom]

23. swilton...

I'd like to PM to like some of your FB and see where it goes from there. I'm trying to do the same in the twitter world. We boomers need a little help in that world sometimes. Your call, if you think it's worth wild Yes/No.

MMM

[swilton]

24. Love to have you - I'll send you a p/m

[davidpdx]

17. Thank you for posting this

I am quite nervous tomorrow and believe we are going to start hearing those taunts for him to drop out. The good news is he raised $42 million and has the resources to keep going. I've donated twice this month.

I'm staying off Facebook and DU tomorrow morning (here in Korea) because I have to teach a corporate class in the morning and then I need come home and prepare for an interview in the afternoon. No TV or internet (except email) until after my interview. When I get back I'll catch up with the news.

[bernbabe]

20. Rope-A-Dope

[bernbabe]

21. kicking this good OP

We all need to keep things in perspective and ignore those who are desperate to declare the winner prematurely.

[MrMickeysMom]

22. I want to thank you VERY MUCH, dat guy_6!!!

You energized me right there. Not, that I was doing any less, because I AM, and I am encouraging those in my swing state of PA to gear up towards April 26.

VERY important to hear from you!