"Bernie Sanders made folks like me eat a stack of humble pie ..."

[Donkees]

Bernie Sanders made folks like me eat a stack of humble pie on Tuesday night. He won the Michigan primary over Hillary Clinton, 50 percent to 48 percent, when not a single poll taken over the last month had Clinton leading by less than 5 percentage points. In fact, many had her lead at 20 percentage points or higher. Sanders’s win in Michigan was one of the greatest upsets in modern political history.

Both the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus and polls-only forecast gave Clinton a greater than 99 percent chance of winning. That’s because polling averages for primaries, while inexact, are usually not 25 percentage points off. Indeed, my colleague Nate Silver went back and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic primary in New Hampshire, was even on the same scale as this upset. In that contest, the polling average had Walter Mondale beating Gary Hart by 17 percentage points, but it was Hart who won by a hair over 9 percentage points.

Indeed, my initial thought was to compare the Sanders upset with Clinton’s over Barack Obama in the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary, but that undersells what happened Tuesday night. I was in New Hampshire when Clinton won in 2008 and sat in stunned disbelief — Obama lost by about 3 percentage points when the polling average had him ahead by 8 percentage points. In other words, tonight’s error was more than double what occurred eight years ago.

The question I am asking myself now is whether this means the polls are off in other Midwest states that are holding open primaries. I’m talking specifically about Illinois and Ohio, both of which vote next Tuesday. The FiveThirtyEight polling average in Illinois gives Clinton a 37 percentage point lead, while the average in Ohio gives her a 20 percentage point lead. If Michigan was just a fluke (which is possible), then tonight will be forgotten soon enough. If, however, pollsters are missing something more fundamental about the electorate, then the Ohio and Illinois primaries could be a lot closer than expected.

Either way, this result will send a shock wave through the press. Heck, as a member of the press, you might be able to tell how surprised I am. This will likely lead to increased press coverage of the Democratic race, which Sanders desperately needs to be competitive next Tuesday and beyond.

Sanders must rack up big wins and fast. Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind his FiveThirtyEight delegate targets. That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy.

Sanders, however, can breathe a deep sigh of relief that all the states in the Deep South have already voted. He can hope that tonight’s Michigan win will help propel him to victory or at least make him more competitive in states with large delegate prizes left like California, Florida, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania. We’ll see if it does.

Harry Enten is a senior political writer and analyst for FiveThirtyEight. @forecasterenten

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/

[monicaangela]

1. I believe somebody

accidently through cold water on HRC's "firewall." We are finally coming out of the south, the race is on!

[dana_b]

2. Yes,yes, YES!! "Bernie Sanders made folks like me eat a stack of humble pie on Tuesday night."

Yes he did! And about damn time - this too:
This will likely lead to increased press coverage of the Democratic race,

Well finally! Not all Trump all the time coverage! I think thy have been underestimating how many people are Feeling that Bern and his out reach is really good. When people truly LISTEN to him, then they like what they see/hear.

This is a great night!!

[nxylas]

3. Let's hope it brings down the tyranny of the pollsters for good,

Too often, polls have been used to shape public opinion rather than merely reflecting it, and tend to end up as self-fulfilling prophecies. If that ceases even just for the duration of this primary season, I'll be happy.

[djean111]

4. Issues fucking matter.

That's all. I am sure this comes as a big surprise to many.

Also - leopards do not change their spots, and Hillary will not ever move even a millimeter to the left; she will keep marching to the Third Way right. That is why the idea that, even if he loses in the end, Bernie will have "changed the conversation" is dangerous and naive. Well, actually, the conversation, otherwise known as campaign blather, would have been altered to fit the polls. Lies would have been carefully crafted, now that it is known that we can fucking right well look stuff up.

The hard work is, really, perhaps just beginning, because IMO there will be real anger that the expected script has not been followed. Just a feeling.

Bernie will be speaking right up the road from me, tomorrow. Grandson really wants to see him. So we are juggling an appointment at the Humane Society, pretty far away for my old truck, and through horrendous traffic, with trying to get to the Fairgrounds in a timely manner. Gotta get our beautiful rescued German Shepherd, Miss Charlotte, over there for some shots and her first heartworm treatment. Some lovely angel pays for the treatments, so dogs don't have to be put down because their owners did not treat for heartworm, or just did not know about it. If we miss an appointment, I think we have to give her back, and she is already a much-loved part of our family. We were lucky to get her!

Anyway, LOTS of driving tomorrow, but we really want to see Bernie. When I was young, my shop-steward, Democratic Ward worker dad took us to see JFK give a campaign speech in a parking lot in Chester, PA. We could not hear much, but I remember JFK's red hair glinting in the sun, and the energized crowd. Like a glimpse into a parallel world or something. So - I want to see Bernie, and want my grandson to see and feel the reality of things, in addition to the reddit-stoked enthusiasm.

Yikes! This is turning into the DU version of Ulysses! Sorry! And yay! Also - this is not about "beating Hillary". This is about this country, and the world. Let's just leave it at that.

[Donkees]

5. JFK motorcade came down my street too, and I still remember his red hair and smile that day

"Senator Kennedy's motorcade is approaching. Please stay on the sidewalks." I was up on a fire-escape on the second floor. What a view, forever etched in memory. He got out of his car to shake hands with elderly people in wheelchairs, right in front of me.

[marions ghost]

8. "This is about the country and the world"

I love that Grandad

PS--I had a shepherd for 15 years--the last two years on Remadyl but she did fine. Love those dogs!

[djean111]

9. Grandmom, actually! As a matter of fact, grandson has lived with me most of his life,

and my official moniker is Mommom.

Miss Charlotte is about two years old, gentle as a lamb, completely housebroken, and seems just thrilled to have her own home, her own (always open!) crate, her own family. She is a Sable. Lovely to walk, and is friendly to everybody. I did not want another dog, but my son brought her home from the county shelter, and the rest will be history. She is a sweetheart!

[marions ghost]

12. Mommom you rock

Awww your shepherd -- like ours. Ours was named Sybil Sable. (Sometimes jokers called her Sybil Shepherd lol). Once a crazy door to door saleslady came up and beat her over the head with a magazine (really stupid) and she did nothing but bark. Shepherds brought up right are the sweetest dogs. May Miss Charlotte give you as much joy & loyalty & luv as our Sybil did.

[Fawke Em]

6. ...

[Donkees]

7. ...and a hat!

[jillan]

10. To all the naysayers in the media, the pundits & the pollsters that told Bernie to go home.

How can the polls be right when they have been IGNORING & Discounting Bernie from day one.

[Fawke Em]

11. That's a great movie.

Rewatched it just this weekend. It's playing this month on one of the movie channels.