**Maybe Beto is the one ** He leads Trump by the largest margin 52-42 Biden 51-45 Sanders 50-44

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/05/01/rel6d.-.trump.and.2020.pdf










I just wanna beat Chump. Whoever has the best chance of beating Chump is my guy or gal.

[dalton99a]

1. He can rouse a crowd

[Indygram]

2. He is the one...

Hopefully now people will start looking and listening so they figure it out too, lol.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. There will be three tickets out of Iowa, four on the outside.

I hope Beto has one of them.

[dsc]

13. actually Harris and to a lesser extent Booker

aren't dependent upon Iowa. SC and California in Harris' case and SC in Booker's are the important ones.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

102. The three will be Bernie, Elizabeth, and Pete... of that, I have no doubt.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

105. "A Dream Is a Wish Your Heart Makes."

-Cinderella

[rgbecker]

3. If the criteria is "whoever can beat Trump" then I guess we gotta go with the Texan.

Forget about policy, issues and moving them forward.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Defeating Trump is a moral imperative. Everything else is subsidiary.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

83. +1

[Indygram]

14. Based on Beto's New Climate Plan he's proven he has policy chops

And he mobilized the youth vote in Texas with a 500% increase in turnout. Can you imaging that nationwide?

[MrsCoffee]

20. That's as stupid as Bernie saying we want candidates just because of gender or race.

It’s not like throwing a bucket of mud at the wall and seeing what sticks.

We pick fantastically qualified candidates who happen to be female or black or gay or from Texas.

For fuck’s sake I am sick of these insinuations and insults.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

84. Bernie really said that? I agree, based on a million

comments made here...have to have a woman or poc. I agree with you too that this is against our own beliefs.

[MrsCoffee]

93. He did indeed.

“My main belief is that we need to bring together a coalition of people—of black and white and Latino and Asian-American and Native-American—around a progressive agenda which is prepared to take on an extraordinarily powerful ruling class in this country. That is my view. Many of my opponents do not hold that view, and they think that all that we need is people who are candidates who are black or white, who are black or Latino or woman or gay, regardless of what they stand for, that the end result is diversity.” - Bernie Sanders

[Laura PourMeADrink]

95. This actually doesn't make sense. I don't think any

If our candidates think that because they are this or that that it's their sole purpose for running. I think they all have their own ideas and agendas first. I think there are voters who are picking that way though. I wish I had a dollar for how many times people said, no old white guy.

[Amimnoch]

22. Now your talkin'!

for POTUS, policy doesn't matter terribly much anyway. US Presidents don't write the bills that actually execute policy. Congress does. We need a POTUS that will sign any Democratic Party platform legislation that will make it through the Senate.. pretty much all will. We need a POTUS that will VETO any Republican party platform legislation that makes it through. Pretty much all will.

We need a POTUS that will make good judgements on appointments.. pretty much all will.

None of the above happens if the one that finishes with >270 is Cheetolini.

[NYC Liberal]

69. Exactly. Obama had great policies. How much did that help

after 2010 when Dems refused to turn out to vote in the midterms and he got stuck with a GOP Congress?

Sure there are policy things the president can do to cause damage, but they’re mostly limited to executive orders — which are temporary and just get undone as soon as another president takes office.

[Amimnoch]

70. And, really, are not the way our Republic should do government imo.

I love President Obama, I understand why he had to resort to it due to the wall of obstruction, but really, it's not the way we should be doing business here.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

85. Agree. It always seemed kind of crazy for a candidate

to go into excruciating detail on policy specifics. Eyes glaze over. Big ideas and evoking emotion work so much better. Once a policy idea reaches Congress the details will all change anyway based on research and discussion.

[spooky3]

4. AFAIK, none of the polls so far break things down by electoral college votes.

So if your standard is whoever can beat Trump by the biggest margin, you would need to have the electoral college votes, not the popular vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I know the Electoral College is an impediment

I know the Electoral College is an impediment but if a ten point popular vote win can't overcome the Electoral College we're screwed.

[spooky3]

10. I doubt that any of the candidates will be shown in any poll that we can rely on,

to have that big of a lead.

We really can't rely on these early polls, especially if they are outliers.

Did you notice that the margin of error was ~4 percentage points for the questions with ~1000 respondents? And the questions involving the matchups with Trump were half that size, so the MOE is even larger.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

89. Matchups matter in WI MI WI NV NC FL TX & AZ. Last

time I looked at them, we could win with the first three. That was with like 42% approval. They say trump can win with 45%. But then, TRussia will interfere again and NV doesn't like trump but doesn't like any Dem either.

I will be interesting to track ongoing. Like to see these states below 40.

BTW, we can win Texas but ONLY with a very active anti Facebook media plan. Buy the same target list trump/GOP/Cruz used to stop Beto last time. Hire a team of crack techies with $$$. As soon as a smear ad appears, counter it immediately. May mitigate enough. You are talking low info people here who read smear and pass to everyone without checking validity.

[NYMinute]

7. And Beto is just warming up ....

When he is in full swing, no one can beat that charisma and eloquence.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. These results seem to have come out of nowhere.

Wow.

[JI7]

12. I don't know how accurate the poll is but while Beto has not been in national

news much, he has been covering a lot of ground across the country.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

86. Thought so too then got "corrected" by someone

Who said he is only hitting early primary states.

[Indygram]

96. He's been to more than early primary states, here is where he has been since 3/14

Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Nevada
Texas
Iowa (again)
South Carolina (again)
North Carolina
Virginia
New Hampshire (again)
Nevada (again)
California
Texas (again, just for today)

Tomorrow he goes back to Iowa again for another 14 events in 4 days.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

97. That's amazing. That list of events doesn't show

#participants for events but there's a leader for each. Very impressive! I worked for him in Texas. Think he's great

[Indygram]

99. He's had people out canvassing for several weeks already

He's building a massive grassroots ground game.

https://map.betoorourke.com/

[Laura PourMeADrink]

100. Fantastic. If it's him or if he's Biden's VP.

[mtnsnake]

54. I'd agree that he's just warming up

As far as "When he is in full swing, no one can beat that charisma and eloquence," you just might be right about that as well, at least the charisma part.

[JI7]

11. even without polls, Beto has the best response from people

out of all the candidates I have seen and read.

[Indygram]

15. Instead of going on TV doing interviews, Beto has been doing this...

Ground game, ground game, ground game....

https://map.betoorourke.com/

[snowybirdie]

16. Still waiting for Beto

to inspire me. I keep hearing he's great, but haven't heard or seen him in tv or radio where I get my political information. He can reach many more people by at least appearing in media venues once in a while. A mistake to rely on old time campaign practices in this day of media saturation.

[Indygram]

17. I've posted many videos and live stream links

He also has dozens of facebook live videos on his account. He's attended Al Sharpton's NAN forum, She The People and the SEIU Worker's Forum. He's been on AxeFiles in the last month. He was on All In with Chris Hayes a few nights ago. There are many opportunities to hear and see him. I think you will see him get more coverage now, though.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

103. Don't get what the fascination is with Beto based on his "Texas politics"...

but, I remain open to hear more what he has to say... still not sure where Beto stands on certain progressive issues that are important to average Americans. Hopefully, he'll put more 'meat on the bones" of his campaign.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Indygram]

107. He's actually a lot more progressive than he gets credit for....however

He has the ability of packaging more progressive policies in a more balanced way that doesn't scare the bejesus out of moderates. He also really listens to voters and is open to ideas that make sense. He NEVER poll tests anything, so he's not changing up his message based on who his audience is. He's honest, hopeful and unifying. Also...when someone is elected on a state level their job is to represent the interests of their state. When they are elected on a national level their job is to represent the interests of all states. He talks a lot about his policy plans when he answers questions in town halls. He's answered over 600 questions. He streams those town halls live on facebook. You should listen to some of those. You might be surprised.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

112. Okay, don't know how I missed that... I'll have to look more into his position statements.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[peggysue2]

18. That's a great poll for O'Rourke

He'd appeared to be fading in the last several weeks. This poll (and especially if he has a few more like this) will push his name back into the electorate's consciousness. He managed a near miracle in Texas and could actually put Texas in play for 2020.

Interesting candidate! And I liked the sound of his climate change program.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I have an open mind.

My mind is open to that candidate who has the best chance of vanquishing Chump.

[peggysue2]

24. Absolutely agree!

It's all about winning in 2020, thoroughly repudiating the wanna-be dictator squatting in the WH and his odious enablers. The person who can do that? Will earn my vote. Right now I'm a Go for Joe. But that could change depending on what happens between now and when the polls open up.

I'm for who ever can win. Period.

If O'Rourke can manage to catch lightening in a bottle a second time? Then he'll wipe the floor with Trump.

And that's what I'm looking for--a solid, indisputable win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. He has to do well in Iowa.

[Indygram]

29. I believe he will

His Climate Plan actually incorporates a lot of incentives for midwest farmers and even recognizes coal miners. His message of unity and not writing anyone off, listening to and respecting everyone is extremely appealing to Independents and people who voted for Trump and regret it. He is very clear that he wants to serve ALL Americans, even those who may not always agree with him and he wants to hear what those people have to say too. It's a big part of what makes him so special.

[peggysue2]

31. Yes, but first he has to do well . . .

in the debates. I think we'll see a real thinning of the herd after that. Candidates will shine or dim on their own merits. Poll numbers will indicate the electorate's impression and donors will swell or ebb in concert.

Looking forward to the debates. I think most of us are. I haven't had the opportunity to see O'Rourke on the debate stage. But he'll have a chance to carve his own space. Along with the rest.

[Indygram]

38. He's answered well over 600 questions on every issue imaginable in under 2 months

Since he never poll tests anything everything that comes out of his mouth is 100% what he believes without any adjustments based on his audience. That gives him a powerful authenticity and allows him to answer questions very easily on the fly in a very genuine and thoughtful way.

[peggysue2]

39. The debate stage is a different venue and . . .

offers more ears and eyeballs. All our candidates will be scrutinized, the back and forth judged accordingly. Certainly, O'Rourke's experience in these various rallies and conversations, fielding a wide variety of subjects, will serve him well.

We need patience. Let the process roll out.

[Indygram]

44. The clips I've seen of him debating Cruz show him doing well

And by God he is tall. It looked like he's about a full foot taller than Cruz. If he were elected he would be tied for the tallest president in US history right up there with Abraham Lincoln at 6'5".

[Indygram]

60. Here is a link to him debating Cruz

https://www.c-span.org/video/?452966-1/texas-senate-debate

And from his time in the House of Representatives while working on veteran homelessness. Veterans LOVE Beto.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4761161/beto-orourke-homeless-veterans

[Fla Dem]

19. Here are some recent General Election Polls. Biden pretty much beats Trump in all of them.

Last edited Thu May 2, 2019, 11:30 AM - Edit history (2)

The first and most recent is just a poll done in Texas. That one O'Rourke ties Trump. Biden beats Trump. There's also a Rasmussen poll which is pretty much discredited as a biased poll. I personally have not selected my candidate, although have 3 I favor. Going to wait until after the first debates.





https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I have an open mind.

I like all our Democratic candidates.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

90. Wow...these matchups are horrible. Emerson seeing nothing

Like OP poll here.

[Demsrule86]

25. No. I don't think he wins the primary nor the general,

[crazytown]

27. Winning Texas in the GE is enough isn't it?

Which states would he lose?

[Demsrule86]

32. He lost a statewide race in 18. And adding Texas to 2016 gives us 270 electoral

Votes. We need to rebuild the blue wall with Biden. And Beto or Castro would both help with Texas if one of them was VP... shouldn't count on Texas.

[crazytown]

36. But he could win Texas couldn't he?

LBK, W - The Lone Star State has it’s own nationalism. They like Texans in the Whitehouse.

[Demsrule86]

41. He lost in 18 so no I would not risk it. He could be Biden's running mate

And they take the rustbelt and maybe Texas...but Castro would work too.

[Indygram]

47. Beto forces Trump to have to fight for Texas

Which means less time and money for other states. Beto also has a PROVEN ability to increase new young voter participation by 500%. He can do that across the country which means giant wins all across the country and an increased chance to taking the Senate, state legislatures, judges and governor races everywhere.

[Demsrule86]

53. Biden is ahead in Texas so is Sanders within the margin of error. So they

Will fight for Texas regardless.

[Indygram]

58. Biden doesn't have an established massive grassroots organization already canvassing in Texas...

Beto does.

[Demsrule86]

59. Beto didn't win Texas. Perhaps as a VP that could be useful too without

Risking the election.

[Indygram]

61. Biden lost two prior primary races

what's your point?

[Demsrule86]

67. Ah, people win and lose primaries. Beto lost a state in 18 you assure me he can win

for us in 20 ...should he be the nominee. Sorry I don't buy it.

[Indygram]

71. Biden can't increase youth voter turnout by 500%

No elections are won from just voting against the other person. They are won by giving people something to vote for.

[Demsrule86]

34. He would lose the rustbelt and has advanced policies that won't attract moderate voters.

[crazytown]

37. And your proof for that is?

The margins in 2016 were wafer thin. There were huge swings back to the Dems in 2018.

[Demsrule86]

40. It is an opinion as we have discussed before.

It is based on Beto's announced policy positions. He also lost a statewide race in Texas against a despised incumbent in 18.

[crazytown]

42. And as I've said to you before

You are an admirable advocate for Joe Biden, your analysis of his chances in MI, PA and WI is spot on, but you have a bad case of one-itis. Beto is a centrist. He fits the generic profile of a winner

[Demsrule86]

43. I picked Biden because of my analysis. I like all of our candidates but two.

I want to win.

[crazytown]

46. Your posts get on my nerves sometimes

but I’ve never doubted your commitment to the Democratic Party, the Midwest and the Nation. Respect.

[Demsrule86]

50. Sorry. I will vote for whomever the nominee is. But based on my calculations Biden has

the best chance. We have had a devastating event in 16 if it holds... we lost the rustbelt including Ohio and also Florida. We turned Virginia blue so as long as we had the rustbelt we were OK. But in 16 Trump used the rustbelt to win in the electoral college. This is his 2020 strategy. If we nominate someone who can't win there. We will lose. Maybe we take Arizona,Texas, Georgia and North Carolina and win. But, I consider this a long shot. Pick a nominee for the rustbelt and a VP for other states. We have a Senate race in both Arizona and Colorado so maybe those states would work for a VP candidate. That will be up to the nominee. I just want to win. Trump must go or we are cooked.

[Demsrule86]

45. He lost in 18. And I won't put all my eggs in the Texas basket.

[Indygram]

51. He also got more votes than any other Democrat in Texas history...

He increased youth turnout by 500%.
He delivered TWO reliably Republican Rep seats to Democrats.
He helped elect 17 African American female judges which means real change for Texas.

He almost won on those same positions in Texas.

John Kerry was supposedly the safe pick, too.

Trump is going to make this election about dividing over the border and immigration and race. Beto is all about unity and hope...and there is NO ONE better on immigration and the border. And if Trump tries to go back to attacking NFL players and other racial division nonsense...Beto is great on race too. He is able to talk about these issues in a way that inspires and unites.

[Indygram]

48. I'm a moderate Independent and Beto inspires me unlike any politician ever has before

eom

[Demsrule86]

52. Where are you from? If I may ask. My rustbelt neighbors don't feel that way.

[Indygram]

56. I live in a bright red county in a battleground state

I have lived in New England, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Mississippi and now Florida.

I'm originally from a very, very rural area. I've also lived in the suburbs bordering very large cities as well as in small city limits.

Beto can win the rust belt because of how he campaigns. He will go there and listen to their concerns and ideas, show them they matter to him and as he does everywhere else, he will incorporate their concerns into his policy plans.

[Demsrule86]

65. But not the rustbelt correct?

[Indygram]

66. Not currently, but I HAVE lived in the rustbelt in PA.

I also have friends and family who still live there. Beto can definitely win there. Just because Biden can do well there doesn't mean that no one else can.

[Demsrule86]

68. I live here now and Beto will not win. Joe was born in Pennsylvania.

[Indygram]

73. Yes, he absolutely can win because he will show up and listen

And he will win those voters over by earning their votes. That's how he rolls.

[Demsrule86]

74. I just don't agree.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

87. If Beto we're to win nom, could he beat trump in PA?

I think a Biden Beto ticket, together could win Rustbelt and Texas.

[Indygram]

98. Ultimately I don't think Biden will be the nominee

Right now he is leading due to Trump anxiety and desperation to beat him. Biden hasn't really talked about his positions yet and I'm concerned that some of his positions, unless they have drastically changed, are going to turn off young voters. I like Biden and will happily vote for him without having to plug my nose at all, however I think once his positions are made clear he may not be so appealing as he seems right now.

I also don't foresee him ever wanting to be VP again. I think Beto will be the nominee and I think there is a good chance he will pick Stacy Abrams.

[Indygram]

63. This is how he wins the rustbelt...

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/18/beto-orourke-woos-unions-workers-democrats-michigan/3201904002/

video on this page shows how Beto can appeal to rustbelt voters.

[Demsrule86]

64. Link didn't work for me.

[Indygram]

72. Thanks for letting me know...video is in article in this link

Just have to scroll down a bit.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/18/beto-orourke-woos-unions-workers-democrats-michigan/3201904002/

[ooky]

101. I don't have much reason to think he can win Texas.

He just lost a statewide election to unpopular Ted Cruz there. What would change in Texas?

That said, it's important to watch how he will be received in other battleground states, and I still have my doubts that any democrat can win Texas either. He probably does the best there of any dems and will force Trump to spend money there. To me those factors and the early national polling do seem positive.

I think if we have to win Texas we are probably in trouble, but I'm not pinning our hopes on Texas anyway.

[Indygram]

111. National races are a bit different than local races

Voters often want different things from local and state candidates than they do for president. This is why Vermont votes for Democrats for President but have a Republican governor.

It will be MUCH easier for Beto to beat Trump in Texas than it was to beat Cruz. Electing a president is about electing a leader, not a lawmaker.

Beto can win Texas. He can win Florida, which still has a massive amount of Puerto Ricans displaced from Maria living there. They are NOT voting Trump. Any state that has been hit with floods, fires, hurricanes...his Climate Plan includes preparing BEFORE getting hit. He has really broad appeal and he can appeal to progressives while not scaring moderates. He is hopeful and will unify people.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

104. Beto could win the primary...but, not sure that he gives us the BEST chance of defeating Chump.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[redstateblues]

28. I like Beto a lot. I think this poll is an outlier.

[Hortensis]

30. :) Way too early, but I'm glad to see him talked about again.

[emulatorloo]

33. What's the margin of error?

I do like Beto. Looking forward to hearing him speak soon.

Saw Biden speak on Monday, he got us on our feet, fired up, and inspired and teary-eyed about lifting up our country.

[nevergiveup]

35. This poll is most likely an outlier

but still believe Beto is the one to watch. The guy has tons of energy, passion, empathy, intelligence and is impressive in one on one with voters. If he catches fire later in the summer or fall he could go all the way. I personally believe he would tromp Trump.

[robbedvoter]

49. out of the B boys, the onlt one I could vote for

because he's the only one not zeroing on Trumpies.

[dubyadiprecession]

55. Beto for Vice President!

Sorry Bernie.

[TomJulie]

62. I Like Beto BUT!!

Yeah, there's that infamous "but". I really like Sanders and Biden more because I honestly don't believe Beto has a snowball chance in hell of beating Trump no matter what the polls say at this moment in time.

Of the listed candidates - I believe Biden has the best chance. Old Joe is a seasoned pro. He knows how the game is played and he knows how to win. The part that really worries me is I worry about his ability to physically hold up to the long daily grind of a demanding campaign.

Bernie was my guy in 2016 but now I have serious doubts about his chances vs Trump.

Although she wasn't on the list, my candidate is Michelle Obama. I really believe she would have the best chance of winning over Trump. Her VP has to be someone solid with as few skeletons in their closet as possible. Maybe Beto would be a good VP.

[Indygram]

76. Why don't you think he can win?

I honestly find this so astounding to hear people say this. I couldn't be closer to the kind of voter Democrats typically want their candidate to appeal to. I'm a registered Independent moderate voter. I have only volunteered for one prior campaign in my over 50 years. I did that mainly because my friend got me involved. I really liked Obama a lot but not anywhere near as much as I am liking Beto. My health isn't great but when I watch him speak I want to drop everything and go knock on doors and volunteer even though I can't. The guy has this normally unimpressed Independent feeling some kinda way. If Democrats sleep on Beto it will be a massive, massive mistake. I like Biden OK, but I'd rather spend an hour looking at the Obama/Biden memes than stand in line to watch him speak. I'd go see Beto in a heartbeat, though. So there you have it. Beto has the "it" factor and if some could see beyond any given purity test or anxiety over perceived odds at beating Trump they might realize they have a once in a lifetime type of candidate right under their noses.

[TomJulie]

78. Hello, Indygram...

There's something about his mannerisms, the way he flails his arms about and the way he talks. He's too animated.

Also....Although he did well, with all the money he had, he still lost to grandpa Munster Ted Cruz.

Take care, Indygram.

[andym]

77. Beto has a lot of potential but he has to be at least as tough as Biden to be able to beat Trump

We will see if he has what it takes. That means knowing when to fight back and make Trump look ridiculous, and knowing when to keep quiet and let Trump's words speak for themselves.

[Indygram]

80. I would love to see Beto get a crack at Trump over family separation

[TomJulie]

82. My Thoughts As Well.

[Demsrule86]

75. I like Beto and still consider Texas a long shot. I will stick with Biden as the one with

the best chance...maybe Castro or Beto as VP.

[StevieM]

79. I am proud to say that I am Beto O'Rourke's newest supporter. (eom)

[Indygram]

81. Welcome!

Wise choice, imo!

[McCamy Taylor]

88. His brand is the antithesis of Trump--smart, compassionate, young, energetic.

American voters act like consumers. Harris has the same "brand" going.

[coti]

91. That's a big, big deal. nt

[Skya Rhen]

92. The polls that show match-ups state by state, is what I find most revealing...

[mountain grammy]

94. That his approval ratings are above 40% in anything makes me sick..

[brooklynite]

106. A 1-2% difference 18 months before the election is noise...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

108. According to CNN it's a ten point difference.

[Indygram]

109. Unless I'm reading that poll wrong that's with voters age 50 and over, too

That is even more significant I think.

[brooklynite]

110. I mean among the other Democratic candidates.

O’Rourke 52%
Biden 51%
Sanders 50%
Harris 49%

[Gothmog]

113. I have met Beto in person and I really like him