Economist/YouGov poll, May 5-7 interviews, voters giving multiple replies for candidates they like

[highplainsdem]

Just out. This one's interesting because this was what they were surveying:

Which candidate or candidates are you considering voting for in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in your state in 2020? Select all that apply


Link to poll results:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tkqga43437/econTabReport.pdf

The results are on page 118 of 313 (they were polling on lots of subjects).

Anyway, the top results in order of preference:

Biden 53%

Sanders 42%

Warren 41%

Harris 39%

Buttigieg 36%

Booker 22%

O'Rourke 22%

Castro 12%

Klobuchar 12%


All the other candidates were in the single digits.


Sanders and Warren did better than Biden among 18-29 year olds. Biden led in all other age groups.

Biden had more support among whites (49%), blacks (69%) and Hispanics (52%) than any other candidate.

[WeekiWater]

1. Biden is even leading with a majority of millennials?

That’s really good news for him.

[highplainsdem]

2. He's leading among the 30-44 age group, which would include the older half of millennials (23-38 yo)

Biden 42%, Sanders 41%, Warren 35%, Buttigieg and Harris both 31%, Booker 21%, O'Rourke 19%, Castro and Klobuchar both 10%, all others single digits for that age group.

[Demsrule86]

3. The older millennials are the ones most likely to vote.

[WeekiWater]

5. Thanks for sharing the data.

Considering the range mentioned in your follow up, it doesn’t necessarily mean he is leading older half of millennials. It’s probably safe to say it’s at least close. 39-44 in the group you mention might be what puts him over in that wider age group.

Again, thanks for the additional info.

[highplainsdem]

7. I agree that's possible. We don't have an exact breakdown by age.

[DownriverDem]

14. 55 and up

are moving from trump to Biden. Biden/Harris would be an excellent ticket.

[ananda]

4. I know.

This is looking good for Biden and Dems !!!

[highplainsdem]

6. At the moment it looks like 4 tiers there for the top candidates:

Biden
Sanders / Warren / Harris / Buttigieg
Booker / O'Rourke
Castro / Klobuchar

This is pretty close to what Nate Silver found:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/

Nate’s not-to-be-taken-too-seriously presidential tiers

For the Democratic nomination, as revised on April 30, 2019
Tier Sub-tier Candidates
1 a Biden
b [this row intentionally left blank]
c Harris ↓, Sanders ↓, Buttigieg ↓, Warren ↑
2 a O’Rourke
b Booker, Klobuchar, Abrams*
3 a Yang, Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee
b Hickenlooper, Bennet*, Ryan, Bullock*, Gabbard ↑

* Candidate is not yet officially running but is reasonably likely to do so.

[DownriverDem]

15. Biden/Harris

We have never had a woman VP. Then Harris would be aligned to become President. Americans are so behind when it comes to women leaders.

[George II]

8. Interesting poll (lots to wade through), thanks. Some like to talk about the 18-29 year old....

....age group, not noting that they have had the lowest turnout of all the age groups. I wish pollsters would take that into account in their summaries.

[crazytown]

19. Census Bureau Survey

[George II]

20. Thanks. Their breakdown is a little different, the youngest cutoff is 24, not 29....

....that many pollsters use.

Younger voters have consistently had the lowest turnout, look at how the turnout increases as the ages increase.

[marlakay]

9. I did this poll belong to yougov

For over 10 years. They asked which party then if you were strong democrat, race, age, if you were definitely going to vote in primary, zip code for state, which candidate.

[uawchild]

10. Clearly the voters have NOT yet decided

And that's a good thing.

The candidates have not yet fully stated their positions and no face to face debates have been held. Voters don't have enough information to base an informed decision on.

One good or bad debate performance can shake up voter opinion when the candidates are as closely packed as this.

There is no other way to spin this:

This is slightly deflating for Biden and a shot in the arm for Booker, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders and Warren.

These poll results also sorta mirror the Party Leadership Endorsements that 538 has been tracking, where no one single candidate has broken away from the pack.

The 2020 Endorsement Primary (by 538)
Which Democratic candidates are receiving the most support from prominent members of their party?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/

[highplainsdem]

11. 53% is hardly "slightly deflating" for Biden, especially when you consider his lead

among black, white, and Hispanic voters, and among all age groups but the youngest.

The second-tier results do show how close Warren, Harris and Buttigieg are to Sanders.


Editing to add that I suppose you could say the results are a shot in the arm for all the candidates above single digits, because asking the people responding to list more than one choice will show more support for candidates who seem shut out by the frontrunners in polls where people give only one choice of candidate.

[uawchild]

12. An 11% lead here isn't slightly deflating compared to 34% in other polls?

C'mon man.

This poll was interesting in that it asked responders to list ALL the candidates they were giving serious consideration to. They weren't forced by the poll to just give a single choice.

This poll clearly shows that voters have not yet made up there minds and that 5 candidates are bunched up in terms of voter consideration. Your OP shows this!

Biden 53%

Sanders 42%

Warren 41%

Harris 39%

Buttigieg 36%

Perhaps Biden supporters need to join the rest of us in considering the SLIGHTEST possibility that maybe, just maybe, their candidate might not be the 2020 nominee.

[highplainsdem]

13. No, it isn't. He's still the clear frontrunner. The only reason the others are closer

is that this poll is taking into account people's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. choices as well.

Perhaps Biden supporters need to join the rest of us in considering the SLIGHTEST possibility that maybe, just maybe, their candidate might not be the 2020 nominee.

I haven't seen any Biden supporter suggest that his getting the nomination is inevitable.

I have seen a lot of supporters of other candidates reacting negatively to his lead in the early polls and sniping at his supporters who post about it. Even though, as I've said elsewhere, they'd be posting about any lead or surge in the polls for their favorites.

[uawchild]

16. We can agree to disagree, but you deserve Kudos

Thanks for discussing this with me, I think we both made our points and I must commend you for going even further and making this statement:

"I have seen a lot of supporters of other candidates reacting negatively to his lead in the early polls and sniping at his supporters who post about it. Even though, as I've said elsewhere, they'd be posting about any lead or surge in the polls for their favorites."


Yes, the price of prominence is that the current perceived front runner gets the most negative attention. As you have stated, this would happen no matter who was leading at this point in the primary cycle.

The only thing I would point out is that Biden supporters also are sniping at supporters of other candidates. It's a two way street.

Thanks for the discussion.

[TwilightZone]

18. "maybe, just maybe, their candidate might not be the 2020 nominee."

The only people I've seen making the "inevitable" argument are supporters of candidates other than Biden. I personally haven't seen any Biden supporters make that argument or anything even in the ballpark.

It's a similar situation to 2016 - those making the argument about Clinton were pretty obviously not Clinton supporters.

[DownriverDem]

17. A lot of folks have decided

they want a candidate that can beat trump. Most of the Dem candidates have great ideas, but I don't think they can beat trump. Nothing in Biden's past compares with trump. Foreign leaders begged him to run. He can beat trump. He won't take trump's crap. trump does not want to run against Biden. trump needs Pennsylvania. Biden can win Pennsylvania. He was born and raised in Pennsylvania and they will support a native son. Biden has a close relationship with blue collar workers. They will support him because they know how much trump has screwed him. Now the other day we see that voters 55 and up are moving to Biden. It's all about the numbers. I would love to see a Biden/Harris ticket. She would then be aligned to be President. Many Americans are way behind when it comes to women leaders.

[LibFarmer]

22. There is only one vote per person

So second tier votes are not significant unless people's top choice disappears.

It only shows that the second choice of most is vacillating and Sanders is not even a clear second choice.

[Laelth]

21. That's very interesting. Thank you. n/t

-Laelth