CNN-Joe Biden's early state polling looks more like those of past winners than losers

[Gothmog]

It is still very early but Biden's numbers are encouraging. This is from Harry Enten https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/joe-biden-state-national-polls-frontrunner/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Politics%29

Leading in all the early states at this point has historically been a fairly good sign. Dating back to 1980 (the year in which we start getting solid state polling data), nine candidates in competitive primaries have led in polling around this point in the cycle in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

All but one candidate (Ted Kennedy in 1980) who led in Iowa and New Hampshire would go on to win their party's nomination. The eight eventual nominees were Ronald Reagan in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, George W. Bush in 2000, Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. All these candidates also held advantages in Nevada and South Carolina in years in which early polling was available and those states held early contests.
A number of national polling leaders who would go on to lose the nomination are not listed above. Joe Lieberman led in neither Iowa or New Hampshire in 2004. Rudy Giuliani trailed in Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina at this point in the 2008 cycle. Hillary Clinton was behind John Edwards in Iowa and was neck-in-neck with Barack Obama in South Carolina in May 2007. Scott Walker, who was briefly leading nationally with much less support than Biden, followed Jeb Bush in May 2015 New Hampshire polling.

The big picture here is that, at least in early state polling, Biden doesn't have the obvious weakness that many frontrunners who failed to get the nomination in earlier years had.
Instead, Biden's lead in the early states is consistent with his frontrunner status, who at least for the moment is doing the things he needs to do in order to win.....

Second, Biden's doing well with voters who are tuned into the race. Early state voters are the most likely to be paying attention to the race right now. They're the most likely to pick up on momentum for a candidate first. Biden's polling as well among highly enthusiastic Democrats as he is among Democrats at-large. In New Hampshire, Biden is ahead of Sanders, who is from next door Vermont and won the New Hampshire primary by more than 20 points in 2016, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is also from next door.

Again this is early and there are ways for Biden to lose this lead. However I am encourage

[Cha]

1. Thank You, Goth!

[ananda]

2. Been lookin that way to me too!

Go Joe!

[NYMinute]

3. In the current environment

Trump's bad behavior is making the desire to defeat and destroy him more and more acute.

All the policy positions and debates over the nitty-gritty are not important to the voters. Only clobbering Trump is what matters.

Since Trump will get more and more deranged as time goes by, Biden has to do nothing and his poll numbers would go up every time Trump does anything outrageous -- which is daily.

I think it is impossible for another candidate to come out of this with rising poll numbers.

[Lucky Luciano]

4. Bad assumption! No complacency! nt

[R B Garr]

5. Biden is definitely overperforming since he entered. I heard

that term "overperforming" on MSNBC yesterday, but at least the pundits are recognizing that he has more than proven some of them wrong.

[zipplewrath]

6. Look at that list

The eight eventual nominees were Ronald Reagan in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, George W. Bush in 2000, Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

3 winners and 5 losers. And all three winners were republicans. I thought we were focused upon nominees that could win the general?

[musicman65]

7. It is early but,,,

it is no surprise He is leading,too many good things to mention,,,but we already know