What if Joe Biden runs away with this thing?

[left-of-center2012]

According to the Real Clear Politics average of national polling, Biden now has a 23.5-point lead over Bernie Sanders (and the rest of the pack). That's a massive leap for Biden from even a few weeks ago.

The most likely outcome, then, is that Biden's numbers return to earth somewhat after the initial glow of his announcement wears off. But even "returning to earth" will likely mean Biden's lead nationally is in -- at minimum -- the 10- to 15-point range. Which is still significant, especially if he continues to lead in key early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

For all the focus on how many people are running, the race could effectively be over on February 3, 2020, if Biden crushes the field in the Iowa caucuses.

There are three reasons to think Biden could -- emphasis on could -- run away and hide with the nomination.
1) He's broadly liked within the party.
2) He's running very strong with black voters.
3) He doesn't have much competition for the establishment mantle.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/joe-biden-2020-democratic-nomination-donald-trump/index.html

[bloom]

1. I'd say it's number 3

And he has apparently been getting outsized attention on cable news.

That does not mean that he is the one who would serve the country the best.

[Demsrule86]

20. You have to win a general in order to serve the country....the most perfect pure

candidate will achieve nothing if he/she can't get elected.

[democratisphere]

2. If Biden runs away with the nomination it will be ALL GOOD!

It means we have an extremely strong candidate most Democrats can get behind and support with their vote.

[oldsoftie]

8. Along with Independents. Who are the votes that win elections.

I'd say Biden would get a larger share of the Independent vote than the rest of the field

[Sherman A1]

3. It is really, really early in the whole process

Time will tell.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

9. What?! I've been told in post after post that the 2020 primary race is over...

You're not seriously suggesting we should wait for the Democratic electorate to vote, are you?!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Sherman A1]

14. I don't know

maybe, just maybe we should go through the motions anyway. After all what will the Breathless 24/7 Breaking Noise Infotainment Cable Networks Talking Heads have to discuss between ads for drugs we never knew we needed?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

4. What's the "establishment mantle" mentioned above? And how is that democratic?

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[themaguffin]

12. "establishment" is a generic catch all word used on both ends of the spectrum.

[WeekiWater]

13. The "establishment" is a trope used by outsiders as a fear tactic.

Often used as an excuse as to why they can’t win and to promote that they are fighting against the world.

Some like Biden don’t use such a fear tactic.

Well done pointing it out.

[msongs]

16. establishment, like bernie, who is definitely establishment nt

[oasis]

5. Then let the campaign contributions stream into the mighty Biden River.

[dlk]

6. It's Still Very Early in the Process

And too soon to predict anything.

[More_Cowbell]

7. I'll be glad if his big lead encourages some contenders to run for the Senate instead

I believe that we have some people who could turn a few red or purple states blue.

We're going to need good Senate candidates, and any of them would be great in the Senate.

[BlueWI]

10. Then he wins. And we move on to the GE.

Primaries come first.

[watoos]

11. I hope someone does.

I don’t want super delegates to get involved in a 2nd ballot at the convention

[Demsrule86]

18. Given our system is proportionate voting...supers often put candidates over the top...

Obama was the clear winner but delegates put him over the top. Now if Biden wins big, this may not be needed. However the supers will vote for the winner as they always do whether on the first ballot or the second.

[PDittie]

15. He won't.

[Demsrule86]

19. All indications are he will.

[CaptainTruth]

17. If Biden runs away with it I'll vote for him & hope he kicks Trump's ass.

[Shrek]

21. Maybe he will, but Cillizza isn't necessarily great at analyzing this stuff

Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero

The 2016 electoral map is rapidly slipping away from Donald Trump

[NastyRiffraff]

22. The answer to that question is simple

We should all vote for Joe Biden if he's the nominee. We should all vote for the nominee, whomever it is. Period. This is no time for childish whining.