Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumPoll: Biden, Sanders Tied In Iowa
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/poll-biden-sanders-tied-in-iowaBiden and Sanders both sit at 24% support among likely caucus-goers, according to the survey, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), at 14%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 12%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) at 10%, according to the survey. No other candidate was higher than 5% in the poll.
This survey suggests a wide-open race for the Democratic nomination and numbers that could be problematic for Biden as he looks to maintain his front-runner status. The former vice president might have a big lead in national polls, but the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire matter the most in terms of how the race will actually shape up since they go first.
A few caveats: Change Researchs online polling methodology isnt the live-caller phone polling favored by top pollsters, and while the pollster had fairly accurate polling in the 2018 midterms, their track record is relatively limited compared to some longtime pollsters. The survey of only likely voters also might be too tight a measure of who will actually vote this far out from the Iowa caucuses.
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There havent been any other recent polls of Iowa Democrats. An early April Monmouth University poll, conducted before Biden had announced his campaign, found Biden with an 11-point lead over Sanders, while a late March Emerson poll had Biden and Sanders essentially tied.
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Some good news for Sanders supporters, who had some bad news from another poll earlier today..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
W_HAMILTON
(7,876 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,232 posts)You can't trust online polls.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)So, while it's possible, I'll wait for other sources.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,667 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SouthernProgressive
(1,810 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
mobeau69
(11,163 posts)Change was the only pollster to show Andrew Gillum with a lead in the Florida Democratic primary
Change showed Kendra Horn ahead in OK-05 when virtually no one thought she had a chance
Changes polling showed Steve King and J.D. Scholten in a surprisingly tight race in Iowa.
Our 2018 polls were more accurate than The New York Times/Siena research in races where we both polled, we have a polling bias of less than 1%, and we were the only pollster to correctly predict several key races in the last cycle.
Read our full 2018 accuracy report here.
https://medium.com/change-research/change-research-accuracy-c4ce51a190cb
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
SouthernProgressive
(1,810 posts)Change research is a C rated poll who has called 57% of races correctly. They have a Republican bias
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
mobeau69
(11,163 posts)"...Bidens huge national lead appears to be considerably slimmer in both Iowa and New Hampshire with more than six months until the primaries and caucuses if it exists at all."
I look for things to really tighten up after the debates. We already know old Joe and Bernie like the back of our hands. The others, not so much.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)They are the Cenk Uygur of the polling world.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mobeau69
(11,163 posts)Way too early to be spiking the ball.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mobeau69
(11,163 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Tarheel_Dem
(31,245 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Although unlike the author of that article, I prefer polls that focus on "likely" voters, like this one does. Still, good news for Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)question too...I would never vote for him as a woman in the primary and I have a feeling I am not alone.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Port of call?
Proof of concept?
Person of color?
Purloined of coins?
PM of Canada?
Prussian Officer Class?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
dem4decades
(11,307 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)it's a joke. "Joke: a thing that someone says to cause amusement or laughter"
It became apparent to me later, but I didn't connect it at first because the post was about women. Not POC.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wyldwolf
(43,870 posts)Maybe they're a bit more accurate this go 'round?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Partisan D
(43 posts)"Change Research" isn't exactly Gallup or Quinnipiac! Iowa Democrats are more in the centrist mold of rural Dems. I guarantee you the next mainstream poll has Biden in the lead.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden