Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
The Candidates Who Are Going All In On Iowa Or New Hampshire
Some presidential candidates like to put all of their eggs in one early-state basket. Chris Dodd moved his entire family to Des Moines. Jon Huntsman shunned the cornfields of Iowa and held more than 100 events in New Hampshire. And Rudy Giuliani mostly ignored Iowa and New Hampshire and gambled his whole campaign on a strong performance in … Florida. Here in 2019, there are already signs that some Democratic presidential candidates are once again hoping that a strong showing in one early state will set them on a path to the nomination.
According to Joshua Darr, a political scientist who studies political campaign strategy, this approach of prioritizing on-the-ground visits in early-primary states all started with Jimmy Carter. The then-obscure former Georgia governor poured a lot of time and resources into Iowa, finishing ahead of every other candidate in the state’s 1976 Democratic caucus, and eventually won the presidency. Since then, however, political science research has been unclear on whether campaign visits have any effect on candidates’ prospects. And Darr says that factors external to the campaign — such as getting increased press coverage or being a good ideological fit for the state — may matter more to a candidate’s success today. But this hasn’t stopped presidential hopefuls from trying to replicate Carter’s success, even if most haven’t been as lucky.
So we were curious how often the 2020 Democratic candidates have been visiting the states that kick off the primary process: Iowa and New Hampshire. We used local news trackers — from the Des Moines Register and New England Cable News — to tally up the number of events each candidate has held in those two states. (Note that candidates may hold multiple events per day.) So far this year, the 22 candidates that FiveThirtyEight has classified as major have already held nearly 800 events (through Sunday, May 19) in these two states — 427 in Iowa and 358 in New Hampshire. And as you can see in the chart below, former Rep. John Delaney (91), businessman Andrew Yang (65) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (61) are leading the field in total events held across the two states.
And this makes sense when you think about it — none of the three currently holds political office, so they don’t have to balance campaigning with their official duties like most of their rivals do. And unlike pretty much everyone else, Yang and Delaney have officially been running for president the entire year,1 which surely inflates their numbers. They also fit the traditional mold of an underdog looking to win the nomination by shaking one hand at a time. In fact, Delaney communications director Will McDonald told FiveThirtyEight that Carter’s 1976 campaign was their direct inspiration: “We knew from the start that we needed to lean into an early-state strategy.” It also makes sense to find O’Rourke near the top of this list, given that he made his name by visiting all 254 counties in Texas for his 2018 Senate race and reportedly prefers “retail campaigning” over media appearances and private events.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-candidates-who-are-going-all-in-on-iowa-or-new-hampshire/
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Undecided
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden