Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
saidsimplesimon
(7,888 posts)cleared the field.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
2naSalit
(86,599 posts)I'll wait to see some actual votes out there. Polls have become weaponized from what I see over here in my corner.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,817 posts)But... time will tell
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Vidal
(642 posts)pretty incredible. wasn't sure Harris was that far ahead in Cali.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
PatrickforO
(14,573 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)Found this online:
"Jack Kersting
I just graduated high school at JJ Pearce High School in Richardson, Texas. I am attending The University of Alabama next year to study economics, foreign relations, and/or business law.
I started my website, jhkforecastsetc.com, in December of 2018.
I created a 2018 Senate Forecast and it was basic but fairly accurate.
I plan to do weekly updates of the state of the 2020 election here."
https://portermedium.com/author/jackker/
So, it's the guess work of a high school kid?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,384 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)He said he was "fairly accurate" on his Senate forecast.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,384 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)Some high school kid's predictions?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If the primaries were tomorrow I have no doubt it would play out the way he suggests.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Final result 54/46
His forecast 53/47
https://jhkforecastsetc.com/national-overview/
Not bad at all...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Ecological Fallacy. Description: The interpretation of statistical data where inferences about the nature of individuals are deduced from inference for the group to which those individuals belong
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts).....in each state, not the margins of the leaders.
Also, although Biden is ahead in 39 states and Puerto Rico, that doesn't mean he'll get all the delegates in each of those states. Delegates are awarded proportionally, so if Biden is ahead 51-49 in a state that has 100 delegates (hypothetically) he'll get 51 delegates and the second place candidate would get 49.
Also, no candidates get delegates in any states where they don't get at least 15% of the votes. If Biden is the leader and enough candidates split the remaining votes so that no one reaches 15% (that's conceivable), Biden would get ALL the delegates in that state.
Lots of things to consider.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)And he's getting his 15 minutes of fame.
But, as he himself said,
he was only "fairly accurate" on his Senate forcasts.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Feinstein has already endorsed Joe and Garcetti has all but endorsed him. I don't know about the rest but I haven't seen a lot of enthusiastic endorsement for Kamala, at least not yet.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Especially if Joe offered the veep slot or extended some other olive branch which he would be sure to do. I don't think she'd take the offer but it would it would patch up any hard feelings. And she still has 4 years left of her first senate term to look forward to.
p.s. needless to say a lot can change . . .
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden