Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBiden supporters should hope that Bernie Sanders never drops out of this race
because if Sanders eventually drops out, there's a good chance that Elizabeth Warren will walk away with the Democratic nomination when most of Bernie's supporters go flocking over to her instead of to Biden. Do the math.
Even if Bernie doesn't drop out, Biden might do so poorly in the debates that Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Beto, and a few others will likely catch him in the polls, regardless. Warren and Buttigieg are gaining momentum while Biden's early momentum is already slipping, but if Bernie drops out of the race, I think Biden's presidential hopes will quickly be dashed for the 3rd straight time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DrToast
(6,414 posts)Former vice president Joe Bidens status as the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 is highlighted in a new poll, which suggests he is not only the current favorite in the crowded field of candidates, but that he would remain the favorite even if he were running against a single Democratic opponent.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/5/25/18639755/joe-biden-new-poll-beat-democratic-candidate-2020-one-on-one-race
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)that Sanders has both a LW sorta-socialist faction (because he is) and a populist faction that includes a lot of people who lean socially conservative; his dissenting class-warfare revolution and hostility toward Democrats are what unite them. Then there's the usual goulash of regular Democrats who think he makes sense and the job would keep him reined in, romantics looking for a movement to be part of and leader to scream for, plus various types who more often than not end up voting third party for whatever reasons people do that.
Sure, Warren will get a fair number of those remaining after those who promise to walk do, at least initially, but with all these candidates it seems reasonable there'll be a fair amount of scatter also.
I'd say former Sanders supporter Marianne Williamson is made to order for some. Her version of Sanders' positions may sound a little too sensible for some maybe, but with her feel-good spirituality she strikes me as a natural "third-party" choice conveniently already available during the primaries. She's as charming and charismatic a speaker as Sarah Palin and several times smarter, so I'm kind of expecting after the first debate ecstatic claims that she must be our next president.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,262 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ananda
(28,873 posts)nt
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wyldwolf
(43,869 posts)I like *just about* every top and second tier candidate in the race.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,487 posts)I still believe that is sanders is the nominee, trump will win 45+ states
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)Biden 33.6 vs. Sanders/Warren 24.8
Plus, in each individual poll Biden's number is higher than both BS and Warren combined.
Early states (most recent poll):
Iowa: Biden 24, BS/Warren 30
New Hampshire: Biden 36, BS/Warren 27
Nevada: Biden 26, BS/Warren 33 (back in March before Biden announced)
South Carolina: Biden 41.5, BS/Warren 24.5
Except for in Iowa, Biden is ahead of both of them combined, and in Iowa would only finish second if EVERY Sanders supporter goes to Warren.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
uawchild
(2,208 posts)It's the trends that will tell the tale.
Has Biden hit his ceiling?
Will Warren continue to move up?
Will Sanders motivate more people to vote?
Time will tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LibFarmer
(772 posts)technically called "hypnagogic cognition."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
uawchild
(2,208 posts)Time will tell.
Cheers!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
watoos
(7,142 posts)would be happy if Warren is the nominee.
If Bernie were to throw his support to Warren she would be a shoo in. She moved to the top of my list just because she is taking on Trump.
I voted for Biden in the 2008 primary, I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary, maybe it's time for someone else like Warren?
I hate polls, I don't believe in them, they are used as tools to sway the narrative. Biden is a good Joe but IMO he carries a lot of baggage with him. I'm for whoever wins, my record isn't very good in picking winners, I even voted for McGovern.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to watoos (Reply #8)
George II This message was self-deleted by its author.
genxlib
(5,529 posts)I am reluctantly behind Biden because I see him as the only thing standing between us and a disastrous Sanders nomination. In a fractured, overcrowded field, Sanders is polling high enough to win if Biden were not there.
Without Sanders, I would probably move away from Biden because I prefer a second group of candidates that includes Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mainstreetonce
(4,178 posts)I have always thought Biden decided not to run last time because he would have taken votes from Hillary giving Sanders the nomination.
Thinking Hillary would win,but Sanders would lose to Trump,Joe stayed out.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ace Rothstein
(3,183 posts)It is pretty clear that a lot of Bernie's 2016 support were people that just didn't want to vote for Hillary. Bernie would probably have been in the 20% +/- range last primary if it was a 3 person race like he is this time around.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LibFarmer
(772 posts)That will seal the deal.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,487 posts)Super Tuesday will decide this race
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cwydro
(51,308 posts)No way.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,366 posts)Last edited Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:29 PM - Edit history (1)
running, and not only minimizes them, it assumes that those supporters will flock to Warren
No one can assume that
It is a long way off, and a lot can happen, and Super Tuesday has a lot of states, where so far some of those critical states do not show Senator Warren fairing that well
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,513 posts)that will never happen.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,366 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
samnsara
(17,634 posts)...i still feel bidens by far the best candidate and im not sure that liz could stand up to trump during a debate. Bidens as much of a bulldog as trump and thats who we need to go toe to toe with him. trumps scared of joe..not so much scared of liz. She would make a GREAT veep i think!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)"most of Bernie's supporters go flocking over to her instead of to Biden. Do the math."
You can support that premise with objective numbers and analysis, yes? Or is this one of those "I know art when I see it"- type posts that relies wholly on the subjective, and refuses to support its own weight?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
karynnj
(59,504 posts)I would add that if Warren does continue to rise to the point where she and Biden lead with others far behind, she will be seen as a very viable woman. She also seems more dynamic than Biden. The debates will be the first time they are seen side by side (at least after the number of candidates falls do they are on the same stage.)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,513 posts)far as I'm concerned.
But, like was said up thread.. that ain't Never gonna happen.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)They also said Trump ain't never gonna happen, and it did, Cha.
I don't think Bernie is gonna stay in it this time around like he did in 2016. In 2016, Bernie only had Hillary for serious competition. This time he has competition coming out of his ears. Not just Biden, but lots of other excellent choices to contend with as well. I think Biden will do everything in his power to encourage Bernie to stay in the race because without Bernie in it, I think Biden could be finished. Even if Bernie stays in till the end, Big Joe will still most likely drop drastically in the polls once the debates begin.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
EveHammond13
(2,855 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Butterflylady
(3,547 posts)Gave me a ........well my grandma said if you can't say something nice ...shut up so........
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SouthernProgressive
(1,810 posts)He wont even consider dropping out. He is power hungry and views any delegates gained as power. He owes his millions to Warren. Sanders would have been virtually unheard of and wouldnt have made millions had Warren run last time around. If he was more good natured he wouldnt even have considered running this time. Sad to see his futile attempt hurting Warren.
He isnt going to drop out no matter how many wish it. If wishes worked he never would have ran.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided