Kamala Harris nearly tying Sanders in Florida?

[bigtree]

Marc Caputo @MarcACaputo 8h8 hours ago
I’m not surprised Joe Biden is ahead in Florida this far out, not that Bernie Sanders trails in a distant second.

But Kamala Harris nearly tying Sanders?

Hmmmm. That’s something to watch

Marc Caputo @MarcACaputo
Watch Kamala Harris. She might be well-positioned to surge ahead in a crowded Democratic field à la Andrew Gillum in 2018’s FL Dem primary (28% of the primary electorate is black).

The poll results for Sanders also recall how in 2016 he struggled in states w/nonwhite voters

Marc Caputo @MarcACaputo 9h9 hours ago
A year out from FL’s Democratic primary, Joe Biden remains the clear favorite, with 26% in favor, followed by Bernie Sanders at 11% and Kamala Harris at 9%.

Harris’s #s are notable. She’s never been on FL ballot —unlike Sanders— yet they’re almost tied
https://politi.co/2J94W5J

[WeekiWater]

1. Great numbers for her considering name recognition. NT

[Garrett78]

2. Polls will start meaning something on the eve of the Iowa caucus.

I like Kamala's chances. Biden's baggage (more substantial than some recognize) will weigh heavily and pre-Obama Biden was never considered presidential material. As for Sanders, the road essentially ends at New Hampshire. Numerous candidates have better odds than Sanders.

[calguy]

5. Agree on Sanders and Harris

But I think you're underestimating Biden. Post Obama Biden is a whole different game than Pre Obama Biden. Given where the country is right now, Biden may be seen as the best choice to repair the damage trump has done. Time will tell, it's much to early for anything beyond speculation.

[Garrett78]

7. The conventional wisdom may not be as conventional as some think:

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/campaigns/article226007090.html

[marylandblue]

10. Biden has a long record with a lot of points to be attacked.

He will need a strong defense to avoid making this election about every real or imagined fault he has ever had. That's true for all the candidates, but I think Biden is the most vulnerable.

[calguy]

20. You make very valid point.

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. It's a looooong time before the fisrt primary.

[Buzz cook]

18. I think the media likes Biden.

He's one of the centrist daddies the media swoons over. He also has inside the beltway cred.

Kamala is doing well. I hope that she continues doing well along with all the other newer faces in the party. I'm pretty tired of old white men.

[calguy]

3. Until we get a couple debates behind us none of these polls mean anything.

Except for one thing. It's Joe Biden and then everybody else, that all depends of course on if Biden actually runs. Kamala is definitely in front of all the ladies. Inslee and Hickenlooper could make gains on Bernie voters in the debates, other than that it's all up in the air.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

4. Bernie takes Florida hands down...

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[calguy]

6. I doubt it. But if it happens he can count on my vote.

[Garrett78]

8. That must be a typo. I'm sure you meant Vermont.

In all seriousness, Vermont may be the only state he wins.

[namahage]

9. Bernie is not spelled B-I-D-E-N. n/t

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

13. Last I checked, Biden's not running.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[namahage]

17. Not running YET.

But even if not, Harris has over a year to gain name recognition and support, making it anything but a "hands down" victory for Bernie.

You might remember the playbook--coming from low name recognition and monetary support to becoming a legitimate challenger to the "odds on favorite"? Where has that happened before?

The question would simply be then whether her ending mirrors Sanders'...or Obama's.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

19. Bernie will win in the end... he has the superior progressive agenda and, add to that...

the criminal justice reform vote, and it's pretty much a done deal.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[madville]

11. Harris has poor numbers with Hispanics

Gonna have to work on that if she wants to be a legitimate candidate.

I'm surprised her and Booker had such low Black support in that recent South Carolina poll as well.

[Garrett78]

12. Obama had to win Iowa before he was seen as viable. Those who are most oppressed can't take chances.

More importantly, though, polls mean nothing at this juncture.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

14. Not surprised with respect to Harris... the reasoning makes sense.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[JI7]

22. Obama had low Support among black voters early on also. he spend A LOT of time in early

days of the primary trying to win them over.

I don't think people realize how hard Obama had to work to win them over Clinton.

[jaceaf]

29. give her time

I think that will come with exposure.

In California, for Senate, she beat a well known latina politician. It wasn't even a contest.

[PeeJ52]

15. I wouldn't put too much faith in poll numbers for black candidates in Florida...

You saw what happened to Andrew Gillum when they got behind the privacy in the voting booth. I think it's still really difficult for the white voter to bring themselves to vote for a black candidate. They might say they'll do it, but when it comes down to it...

[bigtree]

16. the deal here

...is this will be a Democratic primary where the black vote can be influential if African-American voters show up in sufficient numbers.

[StevieM]

21. Here is why Gillum lost. And this also affected his coattails took Ben Nelson down with him IMO.

~snip~

The FBI investigation that shadowed Andrew Gillum throughout the 2018 Florida governor’s race entered a new phase on Wednesday when prosecutors charged Tallahassee Commissioner Scott Maddox with fraud, bribery, extortion, and racketeering. A 44-count indictment alleges that Maddox and an associate, political consultant Janice Paige Carter-Smith, led a lucrative conspiracy to extort and bribe businesses. Both defendants pleaded not guilty.

While Wednesday’s revelations point to appalling corruption in Tallahassee’s City Hall, one name is conspicuously absent from the indictment: Gillum himself. It looks increasingly likely that the former Tallahassee mayor is not implicated in the FBI probe, as he insisted throughout the 2018 race. Instead, it appears that Gillum may have been the victim of a political hit job by a Republican lawyer who represented one of the players at the center of the investigation and is now working for the man who defeated Gillum in November.

Gillum’s connection to the FBI inquiry has always been indirect. It seems to spring from his friendship with a Tallahassee lobbyist named Adam Corey. In 2015, Corey befriended an undercover FBI agent posing as a developer named Mike Miller. Corey then introduced Gillum to Miller, and scheduled a meeting between the two men while he and Gillum were on vacation in Costa Rica. (Gillum says he paid his share of the trip’s costs; Corey says he did not.) Later, Corey, Miller, and Gillum visited New York City along with Gillum’s brother. Miller obtained Hamilton tickets for the group, though Gillum said his brother purchased them.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/andrew-gillum-fbi-investigation-scott-maddox.html

[CrossingTheRubicon]

23. After opposing a resolution condemning anti-Semitism, the numbers in Florida may shift substantially

[bigtree]

24. against who?

Oh, and stop lying about what Harris supports.

"In separate statements, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who are all running for the Democratic nomination, condemned anti-Semitism but advocated for more discussion surrounding the United States’ policy with Israel."

“Anti-Semitism is a hateful and dangerous ideology which must be vigorously opposed in the United States and around the world,” Sanders, who is Jewish, said in a statement. “We must not, however, equate anti-Semitism with legitimate criticism of the right-wing, Netanyahu government in Israel.”

Harris also said that there was a “responsibility to speak out against anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, homophobia, transphobia, racism, and all forms of hatred and bigotry, especially as we see a spike in hate crimes in America.”

“But like some of my colleagues in the Congressional Black Caucus, I am concerned that the spotlight being put on Congresswoman Omar may put her at risk,” Harris continued. “We should be having a sound, respectful discussion about policy.”

Warren‘s statement hit many of the same notes.

“We have a moral duty to to combat hateful ideologies in our country and around the world — and that includes both anti-Semitism and Islamophobia,” she said. “In a democracy, we can and should have an open, respectful debate about the Middle East that focuses on policy.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/06/sanders-harris-house-rebuke-omar-1207966

[CrossingTheRubicon]

25. Against those who opposed it.

This is not going to play well in Florida.

[bigtree]

26. .

[Starry Messenger]

27. That's welcome news

My main worry is that a CA candidate wouldn't be competitive in states past the Sierras, so fingers crossed.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. Not here in Texas I don't think the state would elect

A female...way too bigoted against women.

[Starry Messenger]

30. Was Anne Richards an anomaly?

Not being snarky, genuinely curious.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

31. Yes

[Laura PourMeADrink]

32. If you are not Texan huge difference. I am stuck here

I see these crazy people. They hate women, then African Americans, then Hispanics. It is a horrible place to live. People I have met are mostly very ignorant, don't watch news, do not know about nor care about the world around them. Sure there are pockets of hope...thank God the pockets are where the population is. Trump approval lower than Ohio and Florida and that's just because of the border landowners who hate trump. And the sophistication of Dallas Austin Houston and San Antonio.

[Gothmog]

33. I saw this on twitter and it made me smile

Link to tweet