Biden lead shrinks to +7 in latest Emerson Poll

[bluewater]

June National Poll: All Eyes on the Democratic Debates; Biden, Sanders and Warren Separate from the Field

A new national poll finds the Democratic field coming into focus as the candidates prepare for this week’s first debates.

Joe Biden continues to hold his announcement bounce, and has gained a point since May – now holding 34% of the vote, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders who moved up 2 points to 27%.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has broken away from the rest of those running, into 3rd place – improving from 10% of the vote up to 14%.

Senator Kamala Harris comes in fourth with 7%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fifth with 6%, and Senator Cory Booker follows in sixth with 3% of the vote. All other candidates poll at 1% or lower. The data was collected June 21-24, and has a margin of error of +/-4.5% for the Democratic primary.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/06/24/june-national-poll-all-eyes-on-the-democratic-debates-biden-sanders-and-warren-separate-from-the-field/

Biden continues to fall back to the field as a leading tier of challengers emerges.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. lol nice editorializing...

Joe Biden continues to hold his announcement bounce, and has gained a point since May – now holding 34%

Biden's lead has barely budged - he's not falling back to the field. He expanded his vote total. But it's cute that's what you go as the lead instead of, you know, the actual headline for the damn poll.

So, no, Biden doesn't continue to fall back to the field. He still holds a very similar lead to the last Emerson poll (he led Sanders +8 back in early May).

[Kahuna7]

9. Yeah, basically. When compared to the previous Emerson Poll, Biden was +8,

now he's +7????

Link to the May Emerson Poll
https://process.filestackapi.com/AG3wH2AR3SP2Mo58NZitaz/rotate=exif:true/resize=width:1200/https://cdn.filestackcontent.com/bqmnYfmESRaMoiltPo8x

[Scurrilous]

2. That's some shrinkage!!1!

[bluewater]

6. It's a 14% loss of a small lead.

When you only lead by 7%, a 1% loss is 14% of your lead.

Warren meanwhile improved 4% and continues her upward momentum gaining on the two front runners, Biden and Sanders.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. You do a disservice to your candidate with stuff like this...

What you extrapolated from the poll is pure hooey. Biden's lead literally dropped by a one-point in over a month's span, and he actually gained support. Moreover, that drop is well within the poll's MOE. Don't be disingenuous and manipulate polling data to push a narrative that isn't there. It makes you look petty.

[Kahuna7]

12. I expect to see a rationalization like this from Sirota. nt

[bluewater]

16. Warren wentup 4%

And continues to close in on the leaders. Please don't ignore that.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. And yet you felt the need to focus on a nonexistent point...

Says a lot that instead of pointing out Warren is moving up, you focus on misleading by suggesting Biden is losing support...hm...

[Cha]

37. Yoiu're not helping EW.

[OilemFirchen]

41. Also within the MOE.

Basically, this poll shows no movement among the top three at all.

Hope you weren't counting on that bubble for air.

[qazplm135]

27. that's a bad use of statistics

particularly since the MOE means that he could have also gained 2 pts as lost 2 pts.

The only statistically significant movement in that poll is Warren who appears to have gained outside of any likely MOE.

Edited to add, Harris losing 3 pts might also be statistically significant if I am being fair.

[Merlot]

3. The post-debate polls will be most telling

[bluewater]

15. more telling, for sure

It is very early in the primary process. it will take months for a clearer picture to emerge.

[sacto95834]

42. Yes

It will be interesting to compare this poll to one after the debate. Hopefully one conducted a few weeks after the debate to allow what was or wasn't said sink in.

[Blue_true]

44. I agree. Tomorrow is "moving day" for Senator Warren.

She is the one that I expect to emerge from the debates looming large.

[SouthernProgressive]

4. "Biden continues to fall back to the field as a leading tier of challengers emerges."

The poll contradicts your statement here. Biden gained support in this poll. He hasn't fallen back.

No reason to be shady and deceptive when putting forward a poll. Specially when there is so much positive to it.

Go Warren!

[bluewater]

10. his lead over Sanders went down 14%

When you only have a small lead, every percentage point counts.

Meanwhile, Warren has gained 4% and continues closing in on the leaders.

[George II]

14. He's "fallen ahead" slower than others?

[Kahuna7]

5. First...34% is nothing to sneeze at. Second, Emerson polling has always

been more generous to Bernie than other polls. The emphasis isn't on Biden "shrinking." If anything the emphasis would be on Bernie growing (2%) . However, compared to previous Emerson polls, they're basic static.

In the previous Emerson poll Biden was at 33 and Bernie was at 25.


https://process.filestackapi.com/AG3wH2AR3SP2Mo58NZitaz/rotate=exif:true/resize=width:1200/https://cdn.filestackcontent.com/bqmnYfmESRaMoiltPo8x
Emerson 5/10 - 5/13 33 25 10 10 8 3 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 -- Biden +8

[bluewater]

13. Unskewing the polls?

Not a good look.

Many people only seem to accept the validity of polls that favor their candidate the most.

[Peacetrain]

7. Ouch... that did not work out so well..

I do not know which I laughed at harder.. the misleading headline.. or that conclusion you pulled out of thin air.. Biden gains a point and has fallen back.................................

[Tiggeroshii]

19. It's interesting how emmerson has been a consistent outlier.

Showing a lot more support for Bernie over the last couple months than almost any other poll, while it is consistent with the overall support Biden has been receiving with every other poll. I wonder why?

[Kahuna7]

25. It is a mystery. nt

[Skya Rhen]

8. Cory is at 3% - Aww...

[Vegas Roller]

18. Deceptive OP

This is the same poll in April:




This is the same poll in May:




This is the current poll:





Joe had a 5 point lead in April and an 8 point lead in May. No need to deceive people.

[Tiggeroshii]

21. It actually looks like Joe was losing in April.

by five points. And gained a bunch after he announced, and has kept the bounce in this poll. Still I'm curious as to what Emerson is doing that is showing Sanders with so much more support than any other poll?

[Vegas Roller]

22. oversampling of younger voters

who will probably not show up if Senator BS is losing by double digits.

[Tiggeroshii]

30. BERNIE SANDERS will likely win young voters as he did last time

When he was losing in the polls by double digits in states like Michigan. What do those initials stand for? Best Selection, right? Thanks for your support!


If your intent is to imply anything else, negatively, I suggest you stop.

[Vegas Roller]

31. BS are not his initials?

[Tiggeroshii]

32. They sure are.

They are also the initials for Best Selection, which I'm sure is what your intent in using them are. Thanks so much for choosing Bernie!

But if your intent is something negative by using his intitials because BS also stands for something else that is negative, I encourage you to stop.

[Vegas Roller]

33. I do not mean Best Selection of course.

[Tiggeroshii]

35. And of course you don't mean Bull Shit. Right?

At all?

I think you would have to mean Best Selection, if there is anything else you are implying. Surely you wouldn't be trying to use his initials as an insult. Because if you are, you should stop

[Vegas Roller]

38. I repeat. I do not mean Best Selection.

[Tiggeroshii]

40. ...

I think you do. What else could be insinuated?

[Kahuna7]

24. Emerson was the only poll since the end of last year that ever..

had bernie in the lead.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. And there's this

Link to tweet

MTurk pays people to participate in polls.

[Kahuna7]

23. That may be true because Sanders always does the best in this poll. However

Emerson is a B+ rated poll by 538.

[emulatorloo]

26. Misleading OP, please self-delete

[NYMinute]

28. Meh

all within MOE except Senator Warren's rise which appears significant.

[Tiggeroshii]

29. Is Emerson overstating Bernie's support, or is every other poll understating it?

[Aaron Pereira]

34. Nice to see Warren rising and methodically building support.

It's a marathon and she is successfully making her case voter by voter.

[wyldwolf]

36. what usually happens when people creatively interpret facts is...

... they're flabbergasted when reality sets in. (I know - Warren may yet catch him, but this poll is certainly not indicative of that possibility.)

[honest.abe]

39. The truth about this poll is that there is essentially no change from their previous poll.

Biden up 1, Sanders up 2. That's in the noise. The only thing worth noting is Warren moving up 4 points.

[Demsrule86]

43. do you think by posting this somehow you can make it so?I saw the last poll so I know this is not

true.