New CNN Poll: Biden 22%; Harris 17%

[stopbush]

Warren 15%; Sanders 14%

Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have made steep gains after the first Democratic presidential debate, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. shows, with former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over the field shrinking to a narrow 5 points.

The results indicate a significant tightening in the race for the Democratic nomination.
The poll, conducted after the two-night debate, finds 22% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents backing Biden for the party's presidential nomination, 17% Harris, 15% Warren and 14% Sen. Bernie Sanders. No one else in the 23-person field tested hits 5%.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-poll/index.html

[riverine]

1. Good. I am tired of seeing a certain VT Senator who can't win in second place.

Now we have a more realistic race.

[stopbush]

2. Sanders will fade quickly, but he will sadly stay in the race as long as the $ holds out.

And I have no belief that hardcore Sanders supporters will support our D nominee in 2020.

[marylandblue]

4. If Warren becomes the presumptive nominee, Sanders may stand down quickly.

[Celerity]

11. I would NOT lay wager on that, the NON DU Berner crowd hates Warren (along with all others

except for Tulsi, and even a good chunk of them only tolerate her as a VP for Bernie.)

They are in it to wreck it if Bernie has his inevitable fail.

His 2020 demographics are far more radical, far less Democratic Party voters, far more hostile than in 2016.

[Turin_C3PO]

12. Damn, I was hoping their would be less of them this time around.

[Blue_true]

37. There are fewer of them.

But in close General election races, they can cause us to lose critical states.

What we need to do after our nominee is clear is launch a full out assault on them, don't have them helping to set our platform nor being delegates at our convention. We need to focus on getting some of the rational, but voting ambivalent voters to vote, I believe that a lot of them did vote in 2018, we need to keep them voting with us.

[marylandblue]

13. You are right,.there will be some hardcore holdouts, but

I'd guess they'd be fewer than last time, given that Warren doesn't have that "corporate Democrat" epithet, and will likely get a warm endorsement from Sanders.

[Celerity]

15. if Warren is the nominee then Bernie can stop probably 80% of the hardcore Berners

from defecting to Rump or the Greenies or some toss-away true socialist/communist party vote bin toss IF he 100% goes all in for Liz.

I did some crazy-detailed analysis on this this all several months ago. I should dig it up. I went pretty granular on the drill-down in it.

[bluewater]

16. Indisputable Anecdotal Proof based on Limited Personal Interactions

Ok, you know the post title is meant to be light-hearted, right?

That said, every Sanders' supporter I know well enough to call by first name in real life (10 or so) says they will gladly vote for Warren if Sanders does not get the nomination.

That's spread pretty evenly across the age brackets.

[Celerity]

21. the ones I know personally are more likely to vote for our winner than defect

I also will find that detailed post, as it was based off hard historical numbers, and only then did I make some numerical extrapolations.

[stopbush]

23. The ones I know won't vote for POTUS if Sanders isn't the nominee.

They believe that the Rs and Ds are two sides of the same coin, so they don’t care if it’s tRump or the D. They won’t vote for either.

[Celerity]

25. 2016 Sanders supporters versus 2020 Sanders supporters

The 2016 Sanders primary supporters' numbers.

Obviously the 3rd party voters were a far smaller percentage in 2016 (it was around 8%) as 23%
of his 13,206,428 (and that number is actually around 13.75 -14 million, as it does not include popular vote totals from Iowa Caucuses (he got 85,055), Maine Caucuses, which has only district reps vote (2,226), Nevada Caucuses (9571) , North Dakota Caucuses (difficult to guess as they have delegates vote, and he had 253 in the districts), Washington (401,452 votes total for Sanders), Wyoming, or non-binding primary Nebraska primary (he got 37,744 votes)

is around 3.2 million votes. Stein only got 1,457,216 total votes (1.07%) nationwide. Also obviously, not every single one of her votes was a Bernie Dem voter. I will give number below of the percentage of Sanders 2016 primary voters who defected en toto below, but it was probably around 5% (If HALF her totals were Bernie voters) to 7% (if a full 70% of her total votes were Bernie primary voters who went Stein.) My guess based off 2012 numbers for her is that it was around 6%, and that turns out to be very close, as you wil see in the data below.

The danger when people show the total number numbers of Stein voters in the close states and say, 'Look, if you take ALL her votes and give them to Clinton, Clinton would have won easily!' is that a large chunk of her total voters would never vote for anything but the Green Party candidate, they are never Democratic or Republican voters, except for the one-off freak candidacy of Bernie in the primaries. Again, the real danger for us this time, in 2020 is that THIS group of 2020 Bernie voters are far, far less Democratic (many very hostile to us in fact) and far, far more radical than he had in 2016, so the haemorrhage is going to be far greater than in 2016 I fear.

so now lets drill down further


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

How many Sanders voters voted for Donald Trump?

Two surveys estimate that 12 percent of Sanders voters voted for Trump. A third survey suggests it was 6 percent.

First, the political scientist Brian Schaffner analyzed the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which was conducted by YouGov and interviewed 64,600 Americans in October-November 2016. In that survey, Schaffner found that 12 percent of people who voted in the primary and reported voting for Sanders also voted in November and reported voting for Trump.

Schaffner examined only voters whose turnout in the primary and general election could be validated using voter file data. This excludes people who said they voted but actually did not — although it also excludes people who voted in caucuses or party-run primaries, for which validated turnout data are not as readily available.

Second, the same 12 percent figure emerges in the 2016 VOTER Survey, which was also conducted by YouGov and overseen by the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (of which I am research director). In 2016, this survey interviewed 8,000 respondents in July, when they were asked their primary vote preference, and then in December, when they were asked their general election preference. This has the advantage of measuring primary preference closer to the primaries themselves and then tracking people over time. But their turnout in both elections has not been validated as of yet.

The third survey is the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey, which interviewed the same group of about 3,000 Americans six times during the campaign. Again, this survey has the advantage of tracking voters over time, but nobody’s turnout has been validated. Among voters who reported supporting Sanders as of March 2016, 6 percent then reported voting for Trump in November.

snip

I think the numbers of Bernie to Trump voters was probably around 10% overall (although I will show the numbers with 12% too). That 10% number is given here That link has a lot more data and goes into great depth, but at 10% Trump from Bernie defection rates, that would have swung the election to Hillary EXCEPT for one massive thing. The problem with saying those Berner to Trump voters made the diifrent completely ignores the Republican to Democratic switchers, as well. You cannot just pull out one set of switchers. Trump lost some support, too, of course. 34% of Kasich primary voters voted for Clinton. And 11% of Rubio primary voters did the same. Kasich had 4,290,448 votes, so 34% of that yields 1,458,752 Rethugs switching to Clinton, OR MORE than ALL of Bernie to Trump votes. Cruz had 7,822,100 Votes, so 11% of that yields 860,431 Rethug switches to Hillary. That is more votes than Bernie to Stein votes, or damn close. Next up is Rubio voters, who defected at a rate of 10%. Rubio had 3,515,576 votes, so that yields 351,558 Rehug to Hillary defections.

Add up those 3 numbers you get 2,670,741 Republican primary to Hillary general defection votes. That is just from THREE of losers, there were many other losing Repug smaller candidates who also had switchers to Clinton. The total was probably around 3 million Republican to Hillary switches.

If you take the 16% of Bernies 14 million primary votes (10% to Trump, 6% to Stein) that yields 2,240,000 Bernie to Trump defections, or far less than went the other way (Rethug to Clinton). In fact, lets say EVERY single Stein voter was a Bernie defector (Literally impossible in reality but lets do it just for fun). That yields 2,857,216 or so, which is still less than the total Rethug to Clinton total switches (counting all Repug primary voters).

I will now deal with last 2 categories. Non voters in the general and then the Gary Johnson general voters.

As for Sanders primary voters who didn't vote at all, it was only 3.5%. Hillary in 2008 had 5% of her primary voters not vote in the General. 5% of Republican primary voters didnt vote in the general.

A total of 8% went 3rd party from Bernie, so taking out Steins 6% (which I used in the calculation above) that leaves 2% who went to Johnson. That yields 280,000 votes. So the grand total of Bernie to other parties voters is 2,520,000 if you take the 10% to Trump number, or 2,800,000 if you give Trump a 12% Defection rate from Sanders primary. Still less than just Rethug primary voters who switched to Hillary. That is not even counting at all the Trump or any other candidates in the Rethug primary to Stein and especially Trump to Johnson switchers. Nor does it count the Rethug to Evan McMullin 732,273 votes (almost none came from Hillary or Bernie). Johnson took in a massive 4,489,233 votes. If only a third of the rate (so 4%, although I think it was higher, as he had 3 MILLION more votes than in 2012) defected from the Rethugs than did Bernie to Trump voters, that means Trump lost another 1,247,354 votes as there where 31,183,841 total votes cast in the Republican primaries.

That means over 5 MILLION defections from Trump to Hillary and 3rd parties, versus around 2.5m to 2.8 million defections away from Hillary via Bernie primary voters. Large net plus for Sec Clinton

The overall rate for Bernie primary voters who didnt vote for Sec Clinton and who voted for either Trump, Stein etc or didn't vote at all was 21.5% to 23.5% (depending if you give Trump 10 or 12% of their vote) versus a 30% defection/non vote rate from Obama for Hillary primary voters in 2008.




2020

5 Weird Items In The New Bernie-Buttigieg Poll (April 17)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldurkheimer/2019/04/17/5-weird-items-in-the-new-bernie-buttigieg-poll/#7945897b7ddd

snip

No. 4: Only 42% of those who voted for Bernie in the 2016 Primary selected him as their top choice in the 2020 Primary.

Many assume that Bernie’s supporters from 2016 are a deeply loyal group, but it would appear that with more alternatives in 2020 (beyond Hillary Clinton) former Bernie voters have new top choices. For example, of Bernie’s 2016 supporters, 15.7% now selected Beto O’Rourke as their top choice, 11.7 % selected Joe Biden, 7.9% selected Pete Buttigieg and 6% selected Kamala Harris.

No. 3: 26% of current Bernie Sanders supporters said that they would rather vote for President Donald Trump over Senator Elizabeth Warren, if that were the eventual 2020 matchup.

While many have assumed that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren appeal to a similar progressive voter, many apparent Bernie supporters would seem to disagree. More than one-in-four of them say they would rather vote for Donald Trump’s second term instead of voting for Elizabeth Warren. In the overall head-to-head between Warren and Trump, voters suggest that they would prefer Trump 52% to Warren 48%.

No. 2: While 100% of Buttigieg’s supporters said they would support Bernie against Trump (if that were the General Election matchup), only 79% of Bernie’s supporters said they would vote for Buttigieg over Trump in a General Election.

This is just another example of the trend where Bernie's supporters appear to be incredibly loyal to just Bernie. Here, 21% of Bernie's supporters say that they would rather vote for President Trump than Pete Buttigieg, if given the binary choice. Perhaps many Bernie supporters would legitimately prefer Trump over most other Democrats. Perhaps Trump and Bernie have a similar, singular appeal to a certain subset of voters. While most Democratic primary voters would support Bernie in the general election if he were the nominee, it appears that some significant subset of Bernie’s supporters do not intend to reciprocate.

No. 1: Only 51% of current Bernie supporters actually voted in the 2016 General Election for the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton – 7% voted for Trump, 23% voted for a third-party candidate, and 19% did not vote.

This result is the most difficult to interpret. Because nearly 30% of those who currently support Bernie say they voted for Trump or a third-party candidate in 2016, this statistic could support the claim that Bernie has crossover appeal and can expand on what Hillary was able to do in 2016. If 19% of non-voters now say that they would go to the polls for Bernie, it would support the narrative that Bernie can motivate many more people to go out and vote for a Democrat in 2020. If we take these potential voters at their word, it would appear to be a good sign for Bernie.

On the other hand, can we know for sure that such voters will actually pull the lever for Bernie in 2020, given that they were the same voters who, in 2016, were convinced to switch their vote to Trump or a third-party candidate, or convinced to not vote at all? Through the slog of negative advertising and attacks that will take place over the next 18 months in the run up to the Presidential Election, perhaps many of the current Bernie supporters will not actually remain motivated Bernie supporters until the end. Only time will tell.

snip



The 2020 underlying fundamentals buttressing the Sanders supporters demographics

These truly worry me. It is a petrol can looking for a swan vesta. So many structurally dissimilar metrics to 2016 in a negative way. A 40 to 45% (or higher) walk-away ratio, with a 25% or so possible straight to Trump vote quotient contained within that overall yield is not at all a good thing.

If Sanders captures 6 million votes (total raw votes in the primaries) and loses out on the nomination in a contentious manner (which his team may self-create), that (if the current statistical trend-lines hold true as his percentage of support scales up) extrapolates out to a direct defection rate (even with fewer overall votes captured) of around 1.5 million votes straight to Trump, and another 1 to 1.5 million to a 3rd party(s). That could be catastrophic. He simply must cement those new supporters to stay in-tent even if he fails to land the nomination. The onus is ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT on HIM and him alone to do that.

The more hostile a stance towards our overall Democratic Party apparatus he himself takes, the more he inculcates a defector mentality into the minds and ultimately the actionable intent of his baseline support to do just that, walk away.

It will become a self re-enforcing negative feedback loop that culminates in a viscous circle that truly raises the re-election chances of the monster orange bloat to a maddening degree.


end




Finally, here is a breakdown on Hillary primary voters in 2008 (who actually had a higher defection rate than Bernie's in 2016)

Around 30% total of Hillary 2008 primary voters did not vote for Obama in the general

around 24 or 25% voted for McCain, around 5% did not vote

https://isps.yale.edu/research/data/d130

https://sites.duke.edu/hillygus/files/2014/06/hendersonhillygustompsonPOQ.pdf



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

Another useful comparison is to 2008, when the question was whether Clinton supporters would vote for Barack Obama or John McCain (R-Ariz.) Based on data from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, a YouGov survey that also interviewed respondents multiple times during the campaign, 24 percent of people who supported Clinton in the primary as of March 2008 then reported voting for McCain in the general election.

An analysis of a different 2008 survey by the political scientists Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus and Trevor Thompson produced a similar estimate: 25 percent. (Unsurprisingly, Clinton voters who supported McCain were more likely to have negative views of African Americans, relative to those who supported Obama.)

Thus, the 6 percent or 12 percent of Sanders supporters who may have supported Trump does not look especially large in comparison with these other examples.

snip

25% is almost triple the rate of Obama to McCain primary switches, and around double

the amount of McCain to Obama switches.

Also, look at the 'other' Dem primary voters, who had a horrific fall-off, a full 53% did not vote for Obama. 44% of those voted McCain and another 9% did not vote.

The Hillary primary voters and the 'other' Democratic primary voters fall-offs or outright switches positively dwarf the Republican defectors, who only had 13% switch to Obama and 4% non voters in terms of the McCain primary supporters, and then the 'other' Republican primary voters who switched even less, 9% voting for Obama and 4% who became non voters.

That last group of Democrats (the 'other' primary voters) defected at a rated over 400% greater than the same cohort for Republicans. If we had had those levels of defections in 2016 Trump would have probably won the popular vote (only a 1.1% switch from Hillary to the orange bloat gives him that) and won the Electoral College by as much as 350-188 (which, BTW, is the absolute MAX, perfect scenario ceiling for Trump in 2020 as well). That 350 is also OUR max possible in 2020 (that is giving us a few stretches, ie. AZ, GA, sweeping the closest swing states, and losing the not so close swingers, IA, MO, and OH) unless something huge blows up on Trump (which is a possibility always with that fuck).

snip


and before some says, oh, that was Rethugs in Operation Chaos, no, not really, those were actually really not a large percentage at all

Lets do a drill down

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rush_Limbaugh_Show#Operation_Chaos

Limbaugh started this around March 20, 2008, he urged Republicans to switch parties and vote for Hillary to tie up Obama

it only works in open primary states

It blew up in his face in one of the biggest (PA)

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24481603.html



so lets give Hillary 33% of 10% of the total vote

76,156 Republican switchers

She did win late deciders, but those were mostly Democrats





Next open primaries were also big states Ohio and Texas

let's give Hillary 75% of 10% of the total votes in the combined (I doubt it was that high but lets play this really in her favour of the Chaos concept)



385,544 Republican switcher votes

and the final 2 states that were part of Operation Chaos

Indiana and North Carolina (Obama won NC, but I will be just as generous as Texas in both)



211,749 Republican switcher votes for Hillary

that's it for Operation Chaos

so the total she gained was 673,449 Republican Operation Chaos-eligible Rethug voters for Clinton

now, she overall had



18,046,007 total votes (taking the largest possible number)

so at most 3.73% percent of Republican votes from Operation Chaos went to Hillary

subtract out the 5% who didnt vote in the general

3.54%

lets say 90% of those late switch Repug voters went back to MacCain (which is higher than the rate MCain Rethug primary voters switched to Obama, which was 87%)

yields a grand total of 3.19% (and this is being REALLY generous to Operation chaos, and assumes ALL of those, every one that was a Rehug late switcher, were game playing Operation Chaos voters)

so around 22% were actual defections from Hillary to McCain (I would guess the real number was probably 23.5 to 24%) and NOT part of Operation Chaos

depending on what stats you use for Sanders defections to Trump (I have see anywhere from 5% to 12%) that is a 183% to 480% (an average of 331.5%, but my gut says it was around 220% to 230%) HIGHER rate from Hillary voters to McCain in 2008 versus Berners in 2016 who flipped to the orange bloat.

All that said, we really have to worry about 2020. Given the stats I am seeing, if (more like when) Bernie loses our primary (especially if it is highly contentious and goes to multiple ballots) I can see 26%, 30%, or even higher bailing directly to Trump, let alone the Greens or just staying home, as his new base is FAR less Democratic now than it was in 2016. Many are super hostile to our party and the other candidates.


Hope all this helped!

[democrattotheend]

28. I agree about the Jill Stein voters

Most of the people who voted for Jill Stein never would have voted for Hillary, Bernie or no Bernie. They probably didn't vote for Obama in 2012 either. They might have defected to the Democrats in 2016 if Bernie had been the nominee, but they wouldn't have voted for Hillary. I give you that a small percentage of Bernie supporters defected because they thought the primary was unfair, but the vast majority of us supported Hillary after the primary was over.

[bluewater]

34. Here's the thing...

First, thanks for a detailed analysis about the defection rate of Sanders' supporters from the Democratic Party's candidate.

Second, you make a very strong argument that the number of disaffected Sanders' supporters is non-trivial and should be a real concern.

So the question is, what's to be done about it?

My belief, based on the Sanders' supporters I know, is that an economic progressive must be on the Democratic 2020 ticket to mitigate the defection rate of disaffected Sanders' people. That means Warren or Sanders as president or VP.

If Joe Biden is the nominee, the defection problem, which you so exhaustively and accurately demonstrated as being a real issue, will simply explode and become enormous. Biden is the worse possible candidate to keep the Sanders' people in the Democratic fold, in my considered opinion.

So, would you have any data on which potential candidates mitigate or exacerbate the problem the most?

I gave my opinion, but that's not based on the level of detailed analysis you showed in your previous post.

Thanks for all your hard work. That was an awesome post.

[Celerity]

36. here is a reply I just did when someone ask me about Bernie hardcore people and Warren

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287184171#post35

All that said (in that link and remember those are the NON DU truly hardcore BoB people I was talking about), Sen Warren at top would be the least damaging in terms of defections I would wager. Well, Gabbard too, but she has a sub-zero chance. Remember this is not me advocating anyone personally, as I do not want anyone to think I consider Bernie or Gabbard viable at all, they would both get crushed in general.

Warren as VP would also be a mitigating factor to reduce Berner defection, but it would be somewhat negated if the top is seen by Berner's (NON DU) as totally irredeemable. Biden would be the most obvious one of the top 8 to 10 for that. TBH, they hate most all save for Bernie or Tulsi, but many see Tulsi as only a VP, and the most extreme do not even like her(especially as top.)

TBF, the truly radical BoB'ers are going to do a runner anyway, if it isn't Bernie at top, but hopefully those numbers can be contained.

The most important factor is Bernie himself. He damn well better not go full wrecker when he fails and also he needs to get 100000% behind our winner.

Also, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt (those 6 were the biggest players behind the plot to elect Rump) need to stay the fuck out of it, obviously, and that goes for ALL parts of the entire election process.

[Blue_true]

38. You should turn this into an OP. nt

[whathehell]

26. They "hate" Warren? Seems odd given how close her policies

are to Bernie's.. Are they just misogynists, or what?

[Celerity]

35. no, they think she is a DNC stalking horse, that at the end of the day she will sell out and not

really do any of the things their Bernie would do. Many buy into the ridiculous postulation that she is some slash and burn Rethug wolf in sheep's clothing.

The really hardcore Berners (NOT DU) are a cult. Many are actually compromised Trotskyites (the REALLY hardcore Trots I know hate Bernie, lolol) or actual democratic socialists (Bernie stupidly calls himself that even though he isn't, which fucks us all by giving the Rethugs a self-inflicted fake, false COMMIE!! target on our backs for them to shoot at) who will hold their purity noses and vote for him in the primary but will deffo bounce out (look at my giant post in this thread) in the general when he is not on the ticket.

MANY want Bernie to play full spoiler and destroy our party. Gain through pain. They think the only way to defeat the neoliberals and 'bankster whores/corporate shills' (THEIR WORDS NOT MINE) and kill off their grip is to make it impossible to ever win with a candidate to the right of BERNIE.

Then you have just the radical chic poseurs. Those are people around my age (I am 23) so say 16 to 31 now, who are not active online really, but are just playing plazzy radical for shits and giggles. I know a few of those in RL. I have switched some to Pete, BUT the Berners have pulled a few back into the cult.

Sure, I would love to have single payer, basically almsot free healthcare, and free uni tuition here in the US. (I have had and can have that anytime, as I am a dual UK/US citizen and also have right to remain (soon citizenship) in a Nordic nation as well)

But, for the US, it isnt going to happen for a long time, if ever. The country is too pushed and captured and artificially (gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc) forced into a RW electoral landscape and zeitgeist. Half our caucus are moderates from purple, pink and red districts, who will block all that, out of fear of losing their seats. I fully predict a public option is not going to pass, even if we hold the House and retake the Senate, plus win POTUS. Problem Solvers, some of the Blue Dogs, and some of the New Democrat Coalition will never vote for the public option. Plus the lobbyist groups who killed it last time will do so again.

I am cynical ad realistic, lolol.

If Rump wins re-election and we fail to retake the Senate, we are probably out of Los Angeles and back to the EU (I am there now, its almost 5 03 in morning, lol) if not for good then at least a long, long time. The SCOTUS will probably end up 7-2 or even 8-1 (Sotomayor has bad, bad diabetes) HARD RW, and like hell if we wait around to have out marriage de-legalised (lesbian). It would be back to London for sure, where we both grew up, but fuck me sideways, BREXIT, grrrrrrrrrr (Can I have any worse luck for my two nations, sheesh, first Rump and now soon that floppy-haired tw%¤ Boris as PM)

[whathehell]

39. The "Bernie bros" are notoriously sexist...

A bunch of male 20 somethings with Mommy issues, I'd guess..

The idea of Warren as a "stalking horse for the DNC" is truly absurd.

There seems to be a considerable amount of of mental illness in this group.

[SidDithers]

3. DU rec...nt

Sid

[Curky]

5. Bernie is declining significantly

To be honest. Same for Biden unfortunately. THIS could be a race between women.

[riverine]

6. Nope. There Will Be A Moderate.

(good movie, btw)

Buttigieg, Klobuchar if not Biden.

[Turin_C3PO]

7. Klobuchar doesn't stand a chance.

Buttigieg maybe. But it’s far more likely to be Biden, Warren, or maybe Harris.

[whathehell]

27. I agree. n/t.

[dawg day]

8. These polls are all so wildly divergent....

I think I'm going to wait till February to pay attention!

[tishaLA]

10. No, the other poll was about a different question

This question is which candidate Democratic and Democratic-leaning respondents support. The poll result, which is from the same CNN poll, is who the respondents believe can beat tRump.

[Celerity]

19. all you say is correct, except the cherry picked number from that other OP was from the same poll

as this one, the CNN. The OP there just tried to 'bury the lede' with a confusing title.

That OP should have said specifically that those results were to a very specific question (the one you just correctly said), not just toss up the numbers (from that question of 'who has the best chance to win the general' and then obliquely toss on

** Best Chance to Beat Trump **

which simply seems like a declarative intensifier (ie editorialising or cheer-leading)

[Celerity]

17. actually they were not, the 538/MC debate poll showed Biden losing 10 points and Harris gaining 10

(from her numbers after the first debate) for net gain of plus on Joe for Kamala 20 points.

In this CNN poll Biden lost 10 points, and she gained 9, for a net gain of plus 19.

The big difference is that Biden started out higher in the 538/MC debate poll

The regular Morning Consult regualr daily tracking poll (NOT the special collab with 538 pre and post debate one) has always been an outlier for the national polls in terms of giving Biden a higher vote share


the CNN poll today

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/07/01/rel8a.-.democrats.and.healthcare.pd




The 538/Morning Consult pre and post debate poll

https://time.com/5617826/primary-debate-biden-harris-poll-slips-10/

The first Democratic primary debates appear to have cost Vice President Joe Biden some of his supporters – at least for now, one poll suggests.

Polling by Morning Consult and FiveThirtyEight before and after the two debates on Wednesday and Thursday suggests that support for Biden dropped by about 10 points among likely Democratic voters, when asked who they would choose if the election were held tomorrow.

Biden had previously enjoyed a healthy lead over the other Democrats. The polling prior to debates, which was conducted between June 19 and 26, suggested that Biden was supported by about 41.5% of voters. At that point, the polling showed Sen. Elizabeth Warren had the support of 12.6% of voters and Bernie Sanders had 14.4% of support. Biden appears to have slipped in the polls after each debate, his support falling to 35.4% after the first debate and to 31.5% after the second round.

Post-debate analyses suggest that Sen. Kamala Harris’ strong debate performance – coupled with her willingness directly attack Biden, including his civil rights record – posed a challenge for the former Vice President. In one of the most heated moments of the debate, Harris drew attention to Biden’s previous opposition to busing as a tool to promote school integration.

The poll also showed Harris gaining a significant number of supporters. While she had the support of just 7.9% of likely voters before the debate, (my add, she had 6.3% after the first debate) she had 16.6% of the the support afterwards. Other candidates appeared to experience smaller gains and losses, according to the poll. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ support rose from 14.4% to 17.3% after the second debate; Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s support grew from 12.6% to 14.4%.

snip


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-poll/

[democrattotheend]

30. Same here

I like most of the candidates, there's nobody I find incredibly objectionable, and there are too many for me to want to make a decision yet.

[tishaLA]

9. Really great results for Sens Harris and Warren

I thought Sec Castro would get more of a bump

[marylandblue]

14. I didn't think Castro did that well. He got too far into the weeds on "Section 1325."

I think he confused a lot of people by harping on that, rather than emphasizing the broader point of treating refugees humanely.

[customerserviceguy]

20. Yes, it was way too wonkish

for the average viewer. But, he seems to have gotten his name out there pretty prominently, and he really scored off of O'Rourke with that "do your homework" comment. Whether it's enough to lift him into the top tier remains to be seen, but I think he makes the cut for the next couple of debates.

[customerserviceguy]

18. At this point

it appears that Sen. Harris' approach worked. I expect the circular firing squad to tighten.

[Trenzalore]

22. Going after Biden paid off

That being said, I expect more of the candidates to do it now.

They will also be taking shots at Harris. The friendly part of the primary is over.

[AlexSFCA]

33. unfortunately taking down biden is the only way for other candidates to win

so they may all focus on taking him down right now, once he is shuttered the complete among themselves

[honest.abe]

24. My favorite part of this poll is Sanders sinking to 4th place!

[at140]

29. RCP NATIONAL POLL Average has Warren 13.4, Harris 10

Warren is catching wind in her sails!!

[Kaleva]

31. Warren and Harris are the only two trending upwards in the past week.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[at140]

32. Debate performances, no doubt...nt