Why Joe Biden's Image Appears at the Bottom of My Posts

[MineralMan]

It's not that I like him the best of all the candidates. It's not that I agree with his positions on everything.

It's simple: I think he is the candidate most likely to defeat Donald J. Trump next November and carry enough coattail Senators along with him to regain a majority in the Senate. That's what I'm looking at and how I will decide for whom to vote in the Minnesota Primary election on March 3, 2020.

I like a number of the current Democratic candidates, for their positions on issues and on other grounds. For me, though, liking has little to do with my vote in the primary election. The ability to win the votes of a broad spectrum of voters, some of whom I actually disagree with, is the main issue for the 2020 election.

If that changes, I'll change my preference.

That's why.

[beachbum bob]

1. many americans believe the same

[MineralMan]

3. So it seems.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Yes.. my feelings exactly... gotta get the dotard out

[MineralMan]

4. That is the most crucial issue for 2020.

[beachbum bob]

5. Biden candidacy will have coattails in many other elections than just president as

so many white working class voters who left the democrats stranded in 2016 will be supporting Joe

[Skya Rhen]

6. According to the polls, you and around 45% of respondents, feel that Joe is most likely to defeat

Trump. The next candidate follows far behind at around 18%...

Snip...

Crosscurrents underlie candidate preferences in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. A broad plurality, 45 percent, says Biden has the best chance to beat Donald Trump in the general election...

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1206a12020Democrats.pdf

[MineralMan]

7. Yes. I saw that earlier.

Now, those numbers may change over time. I don't know. But, for now, VP Biden is staying put in my posts.

[marylandblue]

14. If everyone does the same thing, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Other people think he is most electable even if they don't like him, therefore I think he is electable too. If everybody does that and in tlan extreme case, a majority could believe most other voters like Biden, when in reality the majority prefer someone else. So electability can make a candidate appear stronger than he really is.

[MineralMan]

15. Elections are compex things.

They're also state-by-state things, when it comes to the presidential election. If we learned one thing in 2016, it was that states we thought would go our way might not.

I include such calculations in my assessment.

National electability polls don't break it down state-by-state. I don't trust that polling very much, really.

In fact, I don't pay a huge amount of attention to polls until much closer to the election. In my own state's primary, I will be looking at Minnesota polling in particular, as well as other individual state-based polls.

Since we do use the Electoral College, it is not just national popular vote that matters. If we didn't know that, we learned it in 2016.

[marylandblue]

24. National polls have their uses. I have found the media and most people misinterpret them.

First, they focus on the margin, and ignore if both candidates are blow 50 per cent. If both are below 50, then there are enough undecideds or 3rd party voters to swing the election.

2nd they mishandle the margin of error. Sometimes a candidate leads by say 4 points, "outside the margin of error." They think this means that candidate is really winning. but that 4 points really translates into something like the polls being wrong 20% of the time, assuming polls are perfect. We know polls are not perfect so the real probability of error is even higher.

So even though I thought Clinton would win, I recognized based on national polls a high chance she might not and so the conventional wisdom could be wrong.

[Hoyt]

8. Waiting until my primary approaches to decide who is most likely to kick trum's rear.

So far, Biden ain’t hit his stride. Kind of like the favorite team in early season, that isn’t showing championship caliber, but still good enough not to write them off, yet.

[KPN]

9. That's a good reason to prefer him. I'm not there yet because I believe a number of candidates

may have an equally good chance of defeating tRump in November 2020. We're a long ways away from even voting for a preferred eventual nominee. If the polls still show Biden has a clear advantage come primary voting time as far as beating tRump, I will definitely take that into strong consideration.

One question: why do you think Biden has an advantage as far as affecting the Senate? I don't see that as an absolute myself, but maybe I'm missing something.

[Galraedia]

11. Biden has the best chance in a general election.

It's unfortunate that we have the electoral college but we have it. Winning in California and New York isn't going win the presidency.

[marylandblue]

12. Polls show that several leading candidates can beat Trump.

And some polls show Biden and Sanders both beating Trump by the same margin. So why do people think Biden has a better chance than Sanders? Whatever the reason, it isn't based on just polls.

Also, since both Biden and Sanders are beating Trump, general election voters clearly aren't look at policy, since those two are the furthest apart on issues.

[MineralMan]

13. I base my decisions on my own analysis, as well as polling.

You might have another opinion. I've expressed mine.

[marylandblue]

16. I do have a different opinion. I think winners should have little or no Washington experience.

Four of the last seven Presidents were governors, one was a first term Senator(Obama), and one had no political experience at all. All the outsiders saud they would fix Washington. Only Bush Sr. was a Washington insider, and he only lasted one term. The two two-term Democrats had a lot of charisma.

So the ideal candidate to me is a charismatic non-insider who can plausibly run against Washington.

[MineralMan]

17. Hmm...maybe.

Warren is a Washington insider, too, as is Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and some others.

Basing things on past elections isn't always a good idea, I think. The 2020 election is going to be unique, due to Trump being in the mix.

[marylandblue]

23. Well, Harris is a first termer, like Obama, so not an insider yet.

Warren hasn't been there very long either, has a short political career overall, and has been tweaking the nose of the establishment the entire time. Sanders, there much longer, but has also been anti-establishment the whole time. That helped him in 2016, but now he is old news and others have picked up his ideas.

While Trump does change the dynamic, his main effect is to run a very negative campaign and tries to turn it into a mud fest until both are covered in crap. When someone is that shamelessly malicious and negative, you can't fight back directly, he's the expert mudfighter and you are not.

So the best approach is to ignore him as much as possible and put forth a clear, positive message for yourself. Which is why I like her. She did not mention Trump once in the debate. She has a clear economic populist message instead.

[peggysue2]

18. That's exactly it, MM

My son and I were talking about this just the other night, saying how in a normal election cycle Joe Biden would probably not be our first choice. I like Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. But at this moment in time I'm still convinced Biden has the best shot at taking down Trump.

And in 2020, that's EVERYTHING.

Because without a win, all bets are off.

We have a fine lineup of candidates. But it all boils down to beating Trump decisively, a full repudiation of Trumpism, it's inherent cruelty, arrogance and crass ignorance.

[MineralMan]

19. That's what I think.

I think Biden has the best chance of attracting stray votes from people who voted for Trump, but are wary of doing that again, for one reason or another.

Now, I don't mind if those voters just stay away from their polling places, frankly, but if they do go and vote, I think Biden has a better chance of getting their vote than any of the other current primary candidates.

That's going to matter in states like PA, MI, and WI, among others. Trump hasn't succeeded in helping people in those states. Biden is a known quantity that doesn't scare people who fit into that wishy-washy political category, I think. Sanders does. Warren does, since she has said she'd make private health insurance illegal. That was a bone-headed thing to say. Who else? Well Kamala Harris is an unknown quantity still. I'm not sure what those voters will think of her yet. Personally, I think she needs some more experience as an executive type, which she could get as Biden's VP, I think.

My favorite ticket is Biden/Harris, in terms of overall electability.

[peggysue2]

22. We think alike, MM

Biden/Harris is my favorite ticket as well.

[marylandblue]

28. Warren said at a campaign rally that America is not ready for full government health care.

And we must take "baby steps" to get there. I think if she clarifies her position as to what she would actually do right away, as opposed to what she thinks would be best in the far future, that would be a lot more palatable to people.

[MineralMan]

31. One of Warren's challenges will be explaining all the things she "has a plan for."

While I think it's wonderful that she has so many detailed plans, they're hard to get across thoroughly in campaign speeches. Those who study her website will have a good understanding of what she has in mind, but that's a tiny minority of voters.

Most people vote based on broad understandings of what candidates tell them about. That's a drawback for policy wonks like Elizabeth Warren, I think.

[marylandblue]

36. Watching her speak, she is very good at explaining her policies, and she has a hook.

that she repeats in various ways until it sinks in. Wealth inequality leads to corruption. All of her policies hang off of that. If they remember and accept the big theme, it doesn't matter if they forget the rest.

[Dream Girl]

20. Agree. To me it is completely insane to go with some of the other favorites

We willlose 40 plus states and ge four more years of the Yeti. I cannot believe people are so flippant about this. Time to get real. America will not elect Warren, Kampala or Buttigieg. Do people understand this?

[MineralMan]

21. I wouldn't go that far. I just think Biden has a better chance.

Right now, we're deciding who will be the Democratic nominee. Like most Democrats, I'll be voting for whoever that is.

The thing is that there are lots of people who don't call themselves Democrats and they vote, too. Their votes, in fact, often determine who the winner is in the general election. I always think about those voters.

[marylandblue]

32. I don't and what does it say about America if are that bad off.

If people will vote for torturing children over even a mildly progressive agenda, or will only vote for a familiar midwestern face, we have a far deeper problem than Trump, and it's not at all clear what Biden would or could possibly do to fix that.

[Dream Girl]

39. Unfortunatley, the world and America is not the country we want it to be;

We can stomp our feet and gnash our teeth but in the end we could wind up with four more years of Trump. I'm always reminded of a young, idealistic African American woman who was a Bernie supporter. She was interviewed on TV during the convention and rather blithely stated that if Bernie wasn't the nominee she would just vote for Jill Stein. She had a little self satisfied smirk on her face. I always think about her when Trump does something particularly heinous and say to her "how's that working out for you? You really showed 'em!". The fact is you and I would love to see a woman president or gay or black president but lots of America does not feel that way. Trump will never debate any of them either so let's not think that American will get to make the comparison side by side. I think it's suicidal to not go with the safest choice.

[marylandblue]

49. What you are missing is the crisis

on the scale of the Civil War or the Great Depression. It's okay, they didn't see it coming either. And as it came upon them, a bunch of old men doing things the old ways tried to stop it or control it. Why not do it the old way? It had always worked before, right?

This is not about gender or skin color, not really. It's about how countries respond to crisis. in this case, our crisis is slow moving and partly hidden.

And there are only a few ways to respond really. One is racism, look for scapegoats - the Trump way. And understand here that Trump isn't the cause, he is the effect. The crisis was already occurring across America when some people decided it was time to look for scapegoats.

Another is to play it safe - avoid upsetting anyone, avoid the unfamiliar - we'll call that the Biden way. This is common, but usually doesn't work because it just kicks the can down the road until the crisis becomes unmanageable.

Another is to go to war - nobody's done that yet, but you never know with Trump. War does solve things, but at a terrible cost.

And the last way is reformation - Let's call that the FDR way because that's what he did with the New Deal. Reformation isn't easy and doesn't always work, but it should always be tried because the other ways are worse.

In 2016, America had a choice of play it safe with Clinton or racism with Trump. We chose racism, or at least a majority in the states that mattered did.

Now in 2020, the Democratic Party must choose play it safe or reform, then America choose one of those against racism. Well they already rejected play it safe once and the crisis is still there, so I would suggest we offer reform this time.

The starting point of my entire analysis is that there was slow rolling, partly hidden, political and economic crisis that predated Trump. We've actually talked about a lot of it on DU -economic inequality, political paralysis, runaway corporations etc - we just haven't been treating these things as aspects one big long systemic crisis that's been building and threatens to crush us sooner or later.

[Turin_C3PO]

25. That's why I'm supporting him too.

He’s, as of now, the most electable, IMO. To be clear, I think we have several electable candidates. I also think Biden’s camp needs much tighter messaging. I could change my preference if the other candidates continue to impress or Biden keeps shooting himself in the foot.

[exboyfil]

26. I probably won't move to him before the Iowa caucus

but I understand your sentiment. Whoever is elected will still need to deal with the GOP so I am not as hung up on policy. Removing Trump and restoring a Democratic Senate have to happen. If only the Presidency is won, then the GOP will just logjam nominees.

[Dave in VA]

27. Exactly this

Thanks for the post.

[Peacetrain]

29. Well I like him the best.. but like a number of the other candidates also

so absolutely more than one person I could vote for with enthusiasm.. but I like Joe..

[world wide wally]

30. I agree, plus we have to really consider the rust belt where people consider Biden

To be one of their own. As well as working people everywhere.

[Politicub]

33. Those are all solid reasons. Hard to argue with them.

[zaj]

34. Ditto...

... and he's a good, decent man too. And a progressive. But relateable to seeing voters.

His glasses is that he's not inspiring.

[FiveGoodMen]

35. Wasn't that the argument for Hillary in 2016?

[MineralMan]

37. Yes, it was, and she won the popular vote by 3 Million.

Unfortunately, she lost in three crucial states by only a few tens of thousands of votes and the electoral college vote went the other way. So, we were right, actually.

In any case, she won the primary race handily and was the Democratic nominee. And that's history.

We have to do better than that in 2020, and we have to win those three states. Looking at their politics, I think Joe Biden has the best chance of doing that, frankly.

[marylandblue]

40. I think we are missing the message by focusing on her 2% "victory"

and not the expectation that it should not have even been close. I could not have designed a more unelectable candidate than Trump if I tried. People don't vote for clowns unless they are really, really unhappy about something. Some just blame it on racism, but that doesn't really explain it. Immigrants were just the scapegoats for their real complaints.

[marylandblue]

38. It was, and people miss that the radical Bernie had a lot of support in those states.

He beat her in Wisconsin and Michigan. Sanders could win there again, or IMO, they will switch to Warren. Maybe people are more interested in a progressive message than we give them credit for, but the problem is that we haven't seen the right messenger yet.

[Gothmog]

41. Same here

I will support the candidate who I believe stands the best chance of beating trump. My opinion may change. I currently believe that Biden has the best chance of beating trump but I also like other candidates.

I really like Senator Harris and I have posted a couple of videos of Harris with young girls that I found to be very nice. I have given money to Warren, Beto and Castro as well as Biden.

This is a long primary season and things will change.

[Gothmog]

42. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[MineralMan]

43. Pretty good turnout there.

Some protesters, though.

[Gothmog]

44. While trump is off golfing, Bidin is busy jogging

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[NYMinute]

45. K&R nt

[Gothmog]

46. Biden is in good form today

Link to tweet

[marylandblue]

47. I would like Biden to take the press on his regular exercise run, and

challenge Trump to join him. I remember Bill Clinton doing something like this when people complained he ate too many hamburgers.

[Gothmog]

48. That would be amusing

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

50. Joe Biden Is The Only Democrat With A Clear Advantage Over Trump In New Poll

Link to tweet

[LakeArenal]

51. I have wanted Joe since I saw him speak last Oct.

However, there are three other candidates I wish were doing better. They aren’t however. If any of these start to show me something, I’d be thrilled.

Even then, Joe, for me, just fits.