What to watch for when Biden and Beto launch

[brooklynite]

Washington Post

Neither former vice president Joe Biden nor former Texas representative Beto O’Rourke has officially entered the presidential race, but Democratic insiders have little doubt both will take the plunge. O’Rourke may leap into the fray in the next week or so, Biden early next month. Each will be a top-tier candidate, entering the race with high name ID, a donor base and considerable political talent.

Biden’s challenge is four-fold: Mastering online fundraising; coming to terms with his record on race; maintaining self-discipline; and setting out a vision that is more than a defense of the Obama years.

...snip...

In a way, O’Rourke has all the problems Biden doesn’t — and few of the deficits that Biden must address. O’Rourke, 46, can raise gobs of money online — and likely will when he enters the race. His Senate race showed he can generate wild enthusiasm among nonwhite voters and young people. He has a vision — healing American, listening to one another, embracing diversity. However, he will be in the spotlight from the get-go, and will have to answer three questions.

[customerserviceguy]

1. I think it's an overstatement

to generalize O'Rourke's fundraising from the Senate election to the Democratic primary election. In the former case, he was running against a man hated even by his fellow GOP'ers. In the situation we have before us now, there are lots of good Democratic alternatives to Beto O'Rourke.

Sure, he's got a big list of prior donors, but who's to say that they will automatically support him politically and financially in a quest for the presidential nomination?

[Eric J in MN]

2. Beto O'Rourke's fundraising total in the

...first 24 hours after he announces will be informative about whether he has a good chance to win the nomination.

[customerserviceguy]

3. I agree

that it will be interesting to see what that total is, but even if he out-raises Bernie, I don't think he will end up with the nomination. About the only thing I'm waiting to see is if he can get about 10% of the total support out there, or will he just be another 2-3 percenter, like Inslee.

It's shaping up as Biden, Sanders, Harris, and maybe one more candidate to get into and stay into double-digits as this thing moves along. I have been surprised that Castro has not been able to break out of the under-five percenters with Latino support.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Beto a 2-3 percenter?

I think I can figure that out one.

Members of this party are going to be shocked are how quickly and easily he surpasses others. He's running against some maiden claimers.

[customerserviceguy]

17. Well, even here

Beto's only at 2%, and I have not heard him discussed anywhere in my circles, except as the butt of a joke by some RW loudmouth at a bar once or twice. I'm hearing far more support for Biden around me than for anyone else.

[peggysue2]

4. The advantage O'Rourke has is . . .

the 'it' factor. It's a quality you can't buy or fake or even nail down. But it certainly has the power to attract excitement, inspiration.

And money. Those donations in the Texas race came from all over the country. Yes, Cruz was/is a hated figure but Beto O'Rourke tapped into something far greater than distain for Cruz. At the recent Austin conference, O'Rourke was described as:

"He's like a movie star."

Whether we agree or not, that quality and sentiment exist for a lot of voters.

Will that translate onto the national platform? I don't know. But the two 'B''s, Biden and Beto, will undoubtedly enter the race on a wave of excitement.

Can that be sustained?

We shall soon find out!

[customerserviceguy]

5. While star power

is indeed a motivating factor, especially in a general election, I would hope that most Democratic voters are paying more attention to a candidate's policies, etc. than the average voter.

"Star power" got us Trump and Schwarzenegger.

[peggysue2]

6. Star power . . .

also gave us JFK and Barack Obama.

Don't think we should minimize the power of what O'Rourke brings to the mix.

[Garrett78]

7. Charisma and youthfulness are *huge*.

I give O'Rourke better odds than everyone except Harris and Biden.

O'Rourke would be 48 when taking office. The average age of the last 5 Democratic presidents when taking office? You guessed it, 48.

[peggysue2]

8. I agree.

Even if we don't like the idea that doesn't discount the power of the charisma quotient. In this election cycle, Beto O'Rourke wins that quality hands down.

The question is can he sustain it, add to it on a national playing field.

How odd is that 48 thing?!!! Stars aligning?

[flamingdem]

9. Biden/O'Rourke is my hope

Happy with Biden/Harris as well

Biden and O'Rourke really compliment one another but both are white men in a climate where we really have to see a woman win (well win again and really get to govern).

Whoever runs with Biden might be nicely set up for a presidential run.

[CTyankee]

10. Is this another year where women will hear "Sorry, dear, it's not your turn."?????

Just wondering...

[WeekiWater]

11. I think the thought that Beto can raise gobs of money is flawed.

Not taking anything away from him and his solid senate run. He did amazingly well and pulled in lots of money. He had complete democratic support and people far and wide helped him. Why? He was going against Cruz and had an outside shot. All forces on our side were in his favor. 2020 is a completely different set of circumstances.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

12. Beto will suck all the oxygen out of the campaign of Bernard Sanders (I-Vt) with respect

to the "youth vote."

Biden will benefit by becoming the clearly dominate front-runner.

Good thing, as he's our best candidate to beat Donald J Trump in the Electoral College.

[R B Garr]

14. +1...

[peggysue2]

16. I think that's probably true

Beto has that quality you simply cannot put your finger on. It's just there and a force to be reckoned with even for folks who don't find him truly credible as a presidential contender.

I have no idea how he'll fare in the long-term. My bet is that in the primary, he'll bite hard into the youth and Hispanic vote.

I think he does pose a threat to the Sanders' campaign which is why the negative stories are already flying. There will be plenty of fireworks in the future.

O'Rourke will definitely add an edge of excitement to the overall mix.

[R B Garr]

13. Oprah Winfrey really likes Beto!

Just saw a clip of her interviewing him.