** New ** Morning Consult Poll (Biden 31%, Sanders 19%, Harris 14%, Warren 13%)

[Skya Rhen]

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[SouthernProgressive]

1. Top candidates seem to be within the margin of error for the Emmerson poll just released. NT

[DownriverDem]

4. It's not who I like or you like.

All that matters is beating trump.

[SouthernProgressive]

6. Not sure how this comment pertains to my post.

I believe Harris, Warren, Biden, Insleee, Booker, Klobuchar, Steyer, and Gillibrand would all have a good shot at beating Trump.

I'm hoping in the end it is Warren taking him on.

[Demsrule86]

25. I don't.

[highplainsdem]

11. ????? The latest Emerson poll has Biden at 30%, and the next 3 tied at 15%.

Warren, Harris and Sanders all at 15%.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287195600

[SouthernProgressive]

13. With a margin of error of almost four and a half percent.

This poll seems to fall in-line with that one.

[highplainsdem]

16. If you mean the candidates closest to Biden are basically tied, within the margin of error

in the MC poll, I agree. But Biden's lead puts him well outside the margin of error.

I thought you meant all four top candidates were within the margin of error.

[SouthernProgressive]

17. This is what I meant.

"Top candidates seem to be within the margin of error for the Emmerson poll just released."

[highplainsdem]

18. Okay. Definitely agree that Warren, Harris and Sanders are basically tied.

[Demsrule86]

21. Wishful thinking...and I firmly believe with Warren coming out for getting rid of private insurance,

she will not win a general.

[SouthernProgressive]

22. Not sure what you are referencing with "wishful thinking."

And I fully believe Warren can win in a general.

Warren beats Trump in almost all polls commissioned on the topic.

[Demsrule86]

26. I saw a poll today where she was not beating Trump. I lived in PA ...East Coast won't win there and

is all going to come down to PA.

[bluewater]

15. Different Polls giving different results this early is a good thing according to 538.

Especially this early on. it shows pollsters are not "herding" their results to some expected value.

538 recommends looking at the average of all the major polls, which as of today has Biden at an average of 27.3% support.

[highplainsdem]

19. Which is still nearly double the support his closest rival has.

[George II]

2. Still way ahead of the pack. I hate those 20+ colored lines in the graph, for many....

....who are color blind they're impossible to discern exactly who is who. But, it looks like five or six have flat-lined and should probably consider pulling the plug.

[DownriverDem]

3. What matters

As long as we have to win the Electoral College to beat trump, we have to win the middle. Biden can beat trump. If Biden runs with a strong progressive Dem woman, it would be a formidable ticket. I get the feeling that folks here lean more left. That's fine, but if a Dem doesn't win in November 2020, we can kiss any progressive ideas bye bye. Beating trump is all that matters.

[hlthe2b]

5. Maybe we lean more left at DU--sure. But with 37% undecided, it is possible we'd end up more like MC

[treestar]

8. There's a letter to the editor in the Wilmington, DE paper today

complaining that Biden is losing his lead by going to the left with the party!

Yeah, DU has to be careful - don't be in a bubble. A lot of those people we need votes from are not very progressive.

[floppyboo]

28. Both Biden and Sanders beat Trump so don't worry about 'left' labels

I think it is silly to worry about 'left' - the republicans will call whoever wins a socialist. No point in giving them more ammo.

[redstateblues]

31. The tag "socialist" will not stick on Joe. It will on several of the candidates

[floppyboo]

32. I envy your confidence. He can't support unions and win back the mid-west

without getting the 'socialist' moniker push back.
edited to air quote socialist and to add: unions and the commie threat are peanut butter and jam to the right.

edit2: Also, what is Joe going do about talk of regulations, climate change, diplomacy, ACA?
If Joe can escape the 'socialist' title from the right, he'll have to hide all these important Democratic initiatives. Or just not stand for them, which will mean he looses his base.

[redstateblues]

34. I understand why you want other candidates to wear the millstone of "socialist"

That your candidate has chosen to wear, but Republicans calling Joe’s support for unions Socialism is just not going to fly. Like Obama, Joe is a centrist and the Republican attempt to hang that on Obama was an abject failure.

[floppyboo]

35. A failure? You're not going to have to convince Democrats. It's the others

who, according to a recent poll, still believe in double digits that Obama isn't American. No - it wasn't a failure.
All Trump has to do is mention Obama's name and he gets his base drooling for Red meat.

[LibFarmer]

7. K&R nt

[Peacetrain]

9. Oh Boy.. love it..

[highplainsdem]

10. Thanks! Btw, this is the first time the top candidates have the same poll #s for both nat'l

and early-primary-states polling.

Again, thanks for posting this! I was expecting the update late last night, kept checking their site, finally gave up on it.

[bluewater]

12. Biden drops from 33% to 31% support in this poll, his lead also dropped 2%.

The Politico/Morning Poll is one of the strongest for Joe Biden.

But this week his support continued to decline, falling from 33% to 31%.

Sander's support in second place stayed steady at 19% for both this week and last week, meaning Biden's lead in this poll also fell 2%.

Support for Harris went up 2%, and support for Warren went up 1%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html


Disclaimer: This is a very early poll and the polls seem to be in flux. The results of any single poll should not be over emphasized this early.

[Skya Rhen]

14. And Harris is tied with Warren and Biden is the clear front-runner...

Edit:
Harris is leading Warren

[Indykatie]

20. 1% to 3% Shifts Can Easily Be Attributed to Statistical "Noise" and Not Any Real Change in Support.

[onetexan]

29. yup, 2% is well within the margin of error. Joe is still leading by double digits!

[Cha]

24. your Concern is noted.

[floppyboo]

27. Hopefully Biden can make a comeback - I know he's #1 as of now

Last edited Tue Jul 9, 2019, 09:25 PM - Edit history (1)

but this is just too reminiscent of all his previous attempts. And let us not forget the last winner, who was famous for falling polls. I think its just a matter of time for people to wake up and see the trends and hopefully find someone else to support before its too late again.
edit: and there are a number of good choices! Myself, I would go to Warren as a pragmatic choice, but would ideally like to see Inslee get more recognition and thereby be more of a viable choice. Maybe next time!

[Cha]

23. Hmmm?!

Mahalo, Skra!

[Skya Rhen]

30. Mahalo Cha!!

[Scurrilous]

33. K&R