538 : Is Joe Biden Still The Front-Runner?

[Shrek]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-still-the-front-runner/

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Joe Biden’s status as the 2020 Democratic primary front-runner has started to crack. Following the first Democratic debate, three different polls have found his lead slip into the low 20s, as compared to his standing in the high 20s to mid-30s prior to the June 27 debate. So let’s talk about the case for Biden as the front-runner and the case against him.

To get us started … a show of virtual hands: Who still thinks Biden is the front-runner?

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): ✋

Though I’m raising it slowly, kind of like Biden did when answering questions during the debates.

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): Yes, Biden is the front-runner.

micah (Micah Cohen, managing editor): I staked out an extreme position on the pod.

sarahf: … that you’d like to walk back?

micah: I don’t think Biden is the front-runner in any meaningful sense.

[Skya Rhen]

1. Yes. Joe is leading in every single poll, which means that he is the clear front-runner...

[DownriverDem]

2. Winning the middle

In order to beat trump, we have to win the Electoral College which means state by state. We have to win the middle or trump wins. If there is any chance of moving progressive ideas forward, a Dem has to win in November 2020. We need to focus on November 2020. It's not who I like or you like. Beating trump is all that matters.

[LakeArenal]

3. Looks like a diminish Joe day.

Joe remains the leader And is the most qualified nationally and globally.

[BeyondGeography]

4. Kinda sorta maybe yeah we'll see

Have a nice summer folks. The race will still very much be here when you get back.

[True Dough]

5. You are right about that

If this were a sprint, Joe would have been impossible to catch, despite his advanced age. But this is a marathon, and Joe is going to need a lot of oxygen, but he's prone to reach for the helium.




Many, many miles to go.

[treestar]

6. So what does "front runner mean?"

How can you not be the front runner when you have the highest percentage?

Desperation to create a horse race. They know no one will pay attention to them unless they can make it close.

[qazplm135]

8. Front-runner implies someone with a significant lead

so you can have someone with "the highest percentage" but not the front-runner.

So, in polls where Biden is ahead by double digits, front-runner is a fair term.
But, other polls that might show him up by single digits, not so much.

He's nominally the front-runner right now, but not a particularly strong one as we saw one debate moment ate significantly into his lead. There's a lot more debates, and most people haven't really started paying attention yet and won't until probably the fall.

So he could expand his lead, hold steady or lose it. Any of those three are equally possible IMO.

[treestar]

9. I have to laugh

OK, it has to be double digits? Or a lead does not mean anything? 9%? On what tablets is that written?

[qazplm135]

11. yeah

since you chose not to really pay much attention to what I actually wrote, I don't really plan on spending any time trying to explain it to you.

[treestar]

12. So you are going to hide behind pretending that I don't understand?

Yes I do not understand how the candidate with the highest number, whether in single or double digits, is not the front runner. Someone 9% ahead of the next person is the front runner.

[qazplm135]

13. lol so if someone leads by 1% pt

they are "the front-runner" to you?

Got it. Ridiculous position to take but got it.

Definition: "the person or thing that is most likely to win a race or competition"

Being in front by single digits and with support in the 20s to low 30s is not going to make you "the person or thing that is most likely to win a race or competition" this early out after only one debate.

Having a larger lead adds credence to such an argument. Having a smaller lead does not.

[SouthernProgressive]

7. We have a clear front-runner. It's Biden.

There isn't a sound argument to the contrary.

[Celerity]

10. Yes, he is the clear front-runner. nt