Bernie Sanders might be losing his N.H. firewall

[ehrnst]

But now, with a little more than six months to go until the 2020 New Hampshire primary, Sanders can no longer take the state for granted. He has gone from being the unquestioned front-runner to second place — and sliding.

A University of New Hampshire Survey Center/CNN poll out last week found Sanders dropping 11 points among likely Democratic primary voters since April. He relinquished first place to former vice president Joe Biden and was tied with Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. And while Sanders dropped there, Warren has surged by 14 points.

Adam Huberty, who was a senior New Hampshire staffer for Sanders in 2016, still backs Sanders, but said, “I think it is fair to say the staff didn’t think that Warren would be this big of a threat.

She has momentum here, and while she has her own challenges, she is a real problem for Bernie.”

The UNH poll suggests that in the past few months, Warren has become more interesting to New Hampshire Democrats, particularly women in the southern part of the state. Sanders is better positioned with men in the north.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/07/21/sanders-might-losing-his-firewall/OJ9NmJvPNVKqbcOXw7B07O/story.html

[George II]

1. He's in third place in RealClearPolitics' New Hampshire averages, and dropping.

[Gothmog]

2. This will be fun to watch

Link to tweet

[NurseJackie]

14. It's an absolute myth that BS "votes with Democrats 99% of the time".

[customerserviceguy]

3. I drilled down

into the document itself, and the thing that I found most amazing was the unfavorable rating for Joe Biden. At 25% unfavorable, he's in Marianne Williamson territory (24%), and is surpassed only by Bill de Blasio at 29%. I was a bit surprised to find Beto O'Rourke in that zone, too, also at 24% unfavorable.

Also of note is that Tulsi Gabbard rates better than expected with 30% favorable, and only 15% unfavorable.

[still_one]

4. Good

[EveHammond13]

5. Bernie and Nina Turner have burned EVERY bridge with me

[ehrnst]

6. I think that may be why Turner is working on the campaign.

What else would be available to her other than working for Sanders?

What other WOC would be Sanders's co-chair and dutifully publicly scold a group of activist WOC, to a white crowd, falsely claiming that they had "booed" Sanders's "civil rights actions?"

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128794008

They have each other, I think because they have both burned so many bridges with others. When even Tad Devine won't work with you, after who he's agreed to work with and for in the past, you know it's not good.

[Blue_true]

18. Nina does not just burn bridges, she burns every tree in sight so no replacement bridge

can be built.

[EveHammond13]

21. LOL. she does not play well with others.

[comradebillyboy]

7. Good.

[helpisontheway]

8. Good!! Best news I have heard in a bit. Nt

[lunamagica]

9. Good

[NurseJackie]

13. I know. I know!

[lunamagica]

16. He he he he

[Gothmog]

10. I remain hopeful that sanders will fail to reach the 300 delegate threshold

I was a delegate to the Philadelphia convention and saw how the process works. One key item is that under the rules, a candidate cannot be put into nomination without 300 delegates. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf

Nomination of the Democratic Candidate for President: The Permanent Chair shall receive nominations from the floor for the Democratic candidate for the Office of President of the United
States in the following manner:

a. Requests to nominate a presidential candidate shall be in writing and shall have affixed thereto the written approval of the proposed nominee and the name of the individuals who shall be recognized to make the nominating and seconding speeches on behalf of a presidential candidate and shall be delivered to the Convention Secretary at a location as specified by the Secretary no later than 6:00 p.m. of the day preceding the day designated for the commencement of presidential nominations.

b. Each such request must be accompanied by a petition indicating support for the proposed nominee signed by delegates representing not less than 300 or more than 600 delegate votes, not more than 50 of which may come from one (1) delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one (1) nominating petition for president and for vice president. Pledged and automatic delegates may sign the petition.

If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold

[NurseJackie]

12. I hope so. And...

If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold

I hope so. And I'm glad to see that my preferred candidates are performing admirably.

[Blue_true]

19. His hardcore supporters are so nasty that they will attack that rule

if he fails to hit the threshold. They will insist that it was put in place to trip him and only him up. They will ignore that voters wanted other people as the nominee, or that the rule was long in place.

[NurseJackie]

11. If BS is struggling or threatened in NH, then he's already lost.

[Blue_true]

20. The issue Jackie is how will he react to that. Early signals are not promising. nt

[silentEcho]

22. 'Cause "they" are cheating, don't you know.

[Blue_true]

23. The mythical "democratic establishment" taking the hands of voters at primary booths,

or something like that.

[silentEcho]

24. Or something like. Yes.

[TreasonousBastard]

15. People seem to be getting the idea that Warren is most of the best of Sanders, but with...

the ability to actually get some things done.

Let Bernie stay in the Senate where he can rename a few more post offices and continue to vote "99% with Democrats".

[Cha]

17. ...