*****Texas G.E. Beto 49% Trump 39%. No other Dem beats him by more than two*****

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20190730_TX.pdf



If Beto could really carry the Lone Star State that would be reason enough to nominate him.

[hlthe2b]

1. That's got to be encouraging for BETO, who surely has needed something like this.

If he could break out with a very strong debate performance, I think he could hang in there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. If

If Beto could really carry the Lone Star State that would be reason enough to nominate him.

[hlthe2b]

3. I don't think that alone is sufficient, but it could propel his viability in other states.

Winning one primary is obviously not enough.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I am referring to the general.

[crazytown]

6. 270. You are exactly right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. If

If Beto could really carry Texas it would be reason enough to nominate him. If he could carry Texas he would be on his way to 400 Electoral College votes as PA, WI, MI, FL, NC, OH, AZ, GA, and IA would likely be flipping too.

[crazytown]

13. I would have said so in 2016, but the dynamics are changing.

There's been lone star talk there about the Fed's coming down, using eminent domain to tear up good land for the border wall. No swing is ever even but TX may be closer than people think, Certainly the DNC has an eye on them.

[hlthe2b]

8. He has to win the primary first. Texas votes on Super Tuesday. He'd stand a chance if he pulled in

Texas and several other states but since the primary is so front-loaded, Super Tuesday could very well decide it all. Texas alone would not be enough. If he makes a splash and gets more name recognition in this set of debates he could start to break out. He has time between now and March 3.

[crazytown]

5. if ... IF Beto takes TX in the GE

and wins back no other, that's 270.

[hlthe2b]

9. He has to win the prmary first.. Geez.

It is a promising finding, but we don't get to coronate him based on a single poll.

[crazytown]

11. One thing is certain. TX is tinged with purple.

The DNC has put a debate in Houston.

[hlthe2b]

12. It is a promising finding, that's for sure. And now is the time to press Texas.

[crazytown]

14. I've been looking at the electoral map for many years

imagining a sold blue sweep from Washington to Texas. If it ever happens, 'The Trump Wall' will have played a part. It's the scenario the GOP has feared for years. W and McCain were onto it - but Trump wants his white votes.

[Indygram]

17. WHEN Beto takes Texas

Everyone will be able to go to bed early.

Beto has Texas Independents on lock. They can vote in the primary. Too bad Democrats keep trying to push their BEST shot out of the race.

[secondwind]

7. I guess Beto will be the scumbag's next target now.

[highplainsdem]

15. Interesting poll, but it looks as though it's weighted more toward younger voters and men

than the Democratic electorate overall.

Looking at other internals... Checking the question on preference in the primary, I see that Biden nearly ties O'Rourke (and is way ahead of all the other Dems) when Democrats were asked about their preference (26.5% O'Rourke, 24.4% Biden). Most of O'Rourke's advantage over Biden is from suppprt among independents (69.5%).

I'm looking at FiveThirtyEight's page on the Texas primary.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/texas/

This new poll looks like an outlier.

A YouGov poll in mid-July had Biden leading O'Rourke 27% to 17%.

An earlier YouGov poll from early June had Biden ahead of him 23% to 15%.

A Quinnipiac poll in early June (the highest rated poll there) had Biden leading O'Rourke 30% to 16%.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if any more state polls show O'Rourke doing this well.

That Quinnipiac poll in June had Biden the only Democrat beating Trump

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287140598

and in that poll O'Rourke lost to Trump, 45% to 48%.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625



Editing to add that the RCP Democratic primary poll average for Texas has Biden leading O'Rourke by more than 10 points

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-6875.html

and their page for Texas general election polls has Biden beating Trump by 2.5 points and O'Rourke losing to him by 1.5.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Texas.html

O'Rourke still does better against Trump than any other Democrat except Biden.

[Indygram]

18. Those Independents can vote in the Texas primary and they decide general elections

Most of the polls coming out of Texas for the primary don't show the reality. Beto DELIVERED young voters. He has proven he can turn those voters out. Early voting for young voters was up 500% in Texas. Young people who see and hear him speak often end up volunteering and going all in because he inspires and motivates them. Beto wins Independents against Trump in the poll too, but Biden doesn't. Canvassers on the ground in Texas actually show Beto even stronger than this poll indicates because they are knocking on all doors and even talking to Republicans.

Beto is the only one who can turn Texas blue.

[highplainsdem]

20. I'm aware that Texas has an open primary. But at this point this poll is still an outlier. It'll

be interesting to see if any later polls back it up.

And no matter how well O'Rourke is polling in Texas, he isn't doing well nationally, or in polls of other states.

[Indygram]

22. This poll backs up consistent canvassing

Texas has 228 delegates.

Iowa has 41
NH has 24
SC has 54

Polls mean nothing. Votes do. Beto almost doubled turnout for midterm year.

Beto has an army of volunteers on the ground in Texas knocking on doors. They have a better idea of what's going on with voters.

[essadaw]

21. The weighting of Independents could be driving differences in polls

In this poll, Beto is crushing it with Independents/Lean D. He wins them 69.5% in the democratic primary portion of the poll when Independents/Lean D are broken out (Bernie next at 8.4% and Biden at 5.1%) . With straight D, Beto still is the highest at 26.5% but not by much.

Since there is such huge differences in independents in this poll and seen by canvassing teams on the ground, how a pollster weighs independents vs. those with a history of voting in the democratic primary will make a difference in the results.

And this makes sense to me, since Beto came very close in Texas by getting support from unlikely sources --huge youth and POC turnout in a midterm and simultaneously winning over many independents and moderate Republicans. I would expect Biden's support to be based in Democratic party loyalists.

I look forward to more Texas polls. If we win Texas in the general, it is game over for Trump and a huge hit to the Republican party.

[Indygram]

16. That's what his supporters have been trying to tell people, that lead is real, maybe bigger

Canvassing teams in Texas have Beto whooping Trump's ASS in Texas, even in red districts and even with Republicans. No one else can do this.

[dalton99a]

19. I drove through north Texas last month and spotted dozens of Beto bumper stickers

In metropolitan areas it's hard to drive a block or so without seeing one. People who voted for him still keep the stickers

[efhmc]

23. As much as I would love for Texas to go blue, his candidacy would

not pull in other states.

[Agschmid]

24. But he didn't win his Senate election...

We shouldn’t forget that.

[essadaw]

25. In Texas, Cruz is much more popular than Trump

I know it is hard for those of us on this forum to believe, but Cruz actually has a lot of support in Texas. Many Texas Republicans LOVE him. Cruz beat Trump soundly in the Republican primary. Trump, while popular with most Texas Republicans, has less support than Cruz. Texas has some Republicans that identify as Bush Republicans and some of these did vote for Beto over Cruz and more will vote for Beto over Trump.

Beto outperformed both Hillary and Obama in ruby red Texas in a MIDTERM and came close to flipping Texas. Historically, Texas Democratic performance in a midterm is abysmal.

We need a candidate in the general who can outperform Hillary's 2016 results. With a less popular opponent in Trump and presidential year turnout, Beto can flip Texas. Game over for the GOP.

[Tipperary]

28. Thank you.

[Indygram]

30. None of the other candidates would have gotten within 10-15 points of how close Beto got

None of the others would have elected 17 black female judges.
None of the others would have helped flip the house
None of the others would have increased youth early voting by 500%
None of the others would have gotten MORE votes than any other Democrat in the history of the state.

And NONE of the others can turn Texas blue. Beto can.
Most of the candidates can't even re-secure the "blue wall" either.

[qazplm135]

26. one, as I've said about all the other polls

looking at GE polling now is senseless.

[TexasAggieDemocrat12]

27. It's reason enough

for the eventual nominee to consider putting Beto on the ticket. I'm not sure it would be my personal preference but a Biden/Beto ticket would probably be game over for the GOP.

[5starlib]

29. Beto and Biden are the only sure bets in the Electoral College

Biden can win PA and Beto can TX. No other Dem can flip a state with almost certainty besides those two. Warren, Harris, and Sanders can't guarantee any state will flip from red to blue.

[Gothmog]

31. Texas will be a battleground states