Yglesias thinks Biden won tonight, in a way, with Warren/Sanders debating weak moderate opponents

[highplainsdem]

Two tweets from Matthew Yglesias, and an op-ed at Vox:

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

In a weird way, I think Joe Biden was the winner



There’s an important debate to be had along the lines of the Delaney/Warren and Hickenlooper/Bernie fights, but it’s a debate with Joe Biden not these random nobodies.

From his Vox piece:

Joe Biden won the debate

The reason Delaney — or a more plausible candidate like Bullock or Klobuchar — isn’t doing better isn’t that he can’t win an argument with Warren and Sanders.

It’s that the vast majority of the people who agree with him support Joe Biden. Reasonable people can disagree as to whether proponents of moderation are well served by having a septuagenarian Washington insider rather than a two-term Montana governor or a younger but experienced woman from Minnesota serve as their champion. But for now that’s clearly what Biden is, and you’d expect the VP from a popular and successful recent administration to be a strong candidate.

And Biden is not just a strong candidate but currently leading the race — and by a pretty large margin. The view on display Tuesday night of two New England progressives taking center stage and shooting down all comers was powerful but doesn’t reflect the actual state of the primary. The central figure is Biden, the progressives are taking potshots at him, and so far, he’s holding them off in opinion polls and dominating in endorsements.

That’s the actual state of the Democratic primary, and it’s difficult for debates to move the conversation forward unless the frontrunner engages with his main critics not on obscure aspects of 1970s civil rights policy but on the big issues of 2020. It didn’t happen in the first debate, and the structure of the second one makes it essentially impossible. That means round three, when the roster will narrow and the format will shift to a single stage, will in most respects be the first real contest of the season.

[JoeOtterbein]

1. Ha!

He hopes!

[highplainsdem]

5. He's right that Warren and Sanders out-debating much weaker opponents is sort of irrelevant.

[JoeOtterbein]

7. Again. You wish!

Don't worry too much. Just plan on Joe having a strong opponent. Just like 2008!

[Blue_true]

9. I agree, there is a LONG way to go still.

Soon it will be Biden and Warren eyeball to eyeball. Biden faced Sanders and many feel that Biden won that round. Biden and Warren have not faced eachother yet.

[JoeOtterbein]

11. + 1 and...

I can't wait!

[Uncle Joe]

2. Well if Biden attacks Bernie or Elizabeth tomorrow during the debate it should be easier for him

because neither will be present to rebut.

Thanks for the thread highplainsdem.

[JoeOtterbein]

13. + 10000 nt

[highplainsdem]

15. You've completely missed the point of the OP. Suggest you reread that Voxx column.

[CentralMass]

3. Biden, Sanders, Warren and Harris should all be appearing on the same night at this point.

[highplainsdem]

4. Chris Hayes is making a similar point on MSNBC now. And Chris favors Sanders and Warren over Biden.

[Cha]

21. Oh really! What did Hayes say, please?

Thank You!

[BeyondGeography]

6. Hopefully we've seen the last of Warren/Delaney

Ffs, I mean he’s a club fighter and she laid him out. Enough.

[Blue_true]

12. Oh my gosh, such vivid imagery. nt

[Cha]

8. Interesting.. I was curious why he thought "..Biden won.."!

That’s the actual state of the Democratic primary, and it’s difficult for debates to move the conversation forward unless the frontrunner engages with his main critics not on obscure aspects of 1970s civil rights policy but on the big issues of 2020. It didn’t happen in the first debate, and the structure of the second one makes it essentially impossible. That means round three, when the roster will narrow and the format will shift to a single stage, will in most respects be the first real contest of the season.

Thank You for these perspectives, highplains

[bullwinkle428]

10. Tell him to just wait a freaking month!! You'll get all the heavyweights on the same stage!

[highplainsdem]

14. Brian Fallon seems to agree with Yglesias on the irrelevance of tonight's debate:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287217779

[Drunken Irishman]

16. He's right and I said as much on twitter...

Now, this doesn't matter if Biden goes out and has another bad debate performance tomorrow night. However, Warren didn't knock Bernie out, and Bernie didn't blunt Warren's momentum, so, the status quo kinda remains since they're going after the same group of supporters. Warren needs to keep eating into Sanders' support, or Sanders needs to regain what he's lost, in order to catch Biden - and neither will do it by taking this approach. They'll just continue to split the same demographics.

The fact is, Biden currently is averaging 32% support according to RCP. Bernie and Warren combine for 30.2% of the support. But it breaks almost evenly between the two - 16% for Sanders and 14% for Warren.

If I'm Biden's camp, I want Warren and Sanders to stay as competitive with one another as possible because the second one of 'em loses too much of their lead, the other will surge and this race closes fast.

[Cha]

19. Thanks for your analysis, DI.

to Biden doing well tomorrow night

[Gothmog]

17. Biden did win tonight

[Green Line]

18. That was the first thing I said after the debate

Biden won

[Cha]

20. Wow.. 'cause

Sanders and Warren stayed "status quo"?

Thanks!

[Gothmog]

22. I agree that Biden won

Link to tweet

[Cha]

23. Thanks, Goth.. someone

said.. ".. if no one stole the stage tonight then the front runner wins.. that's how it works.." paraphrasing..

[treestar]

24. Yep, this is all entertainment

The pundits will make the usual drama and try to elevate someone to get their much needed "horse race," but none of it will matter within 2 weeks.