Finally, new Quinnipiac poll, with trendlines from before debate:

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Finally, new Quinnipiac poll, with trendlines from before debate:

Biden – 32% (-2)
Warren – 21% (+6)
Sanders – 14% (+3)
Harris – 7% (-5)
Buttigieg – 5% (-1)
O’Rourke – 2% (+0)
Booker – 2% (+1)
Yang – 1% (-1)
Klobuchar – 1% (+0)
Gabbard – 1% (+0)
Castro – 1% (+1)

Link to tweet

The Q-poll result that interests me most…

Who did best in debate?

Warren - 28%
Biden - 15%
Harris - 8%
Sanders - 8%

Who is most electable?

Biden - 49%
Sanders - 12%
Warren - 9%
Harris - 6%

Link to tweet

Democrats are scared. They think several other candidates may be better *campaigners* than Biden, but they believe those white guys in the Midwest want Uncle Joe and no one else.

Link to tweet

[qazplm135]

1. Yep, it's fear

unwarranted fear, but fear nevertheless.

[emmaverybo]

28. I am afraid. We are sitting on top of a powder keg. Never before have we been so close to a nuclear

war. Although India and Pakistan might be the two nuclear powers to start a first nuclear war, there are other hot spots.

Biden is the only candidate with the knowledge, experience, and stature on the world stage, prepared on day one, to lead in these dangerous times.

If you want to say that his showing in the polls reflects only a perception of electability, fine. But
I think that perception is based on his qualifications as well as the idea that he might garner the
electoral college votes.

Personally, I see a depth of character I do not see in the rest of our fine candidates.

[qazplm135]

40. oh no he isn't

not remotely.

[emmaverybo]

42. You can certainly argue that a) Joe, compared to other candidates, does not "remotely" possess

Last edited Thu Aug 8, 2019, 05:32 PM - Edit history (3)

the requisite needed qualifications, knowledge, experience, and stature on the world stage to lead
a super-power through perilous times.

And next b) you can explain how any candidate of your choosing, or several, possesses
greater foreign relations and policy qualifications, experience, knowledge and stature on the world stage than does Biden.

Keep in mind that Biden was a long-standing member and the former chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

Under Obama, he “helped formulate U.S. policy toward Iraq through the withdrawal of US troops,”
visiting Iraq eight times to implement that policy, dealing with complicated political realties in the region.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden)

He has also studied the Pakistan-India situation in depth, among other potential hot spots, while his recent op-Ed article explaining why Migrants fled Central American countries suggested how his deep, knowledge of policy history wedded to his understanding of current conditions can inform actions to
address the humanitarian crisis at the Southern border,

Finally, the international community welcomes a Biden presidency.

Snip——————————————————————-

World leaders tell Biden: We need you

The former vice president would bring deep relationships and heavyweight credentials to a 2020 Democratic field lacking in national security experience.
By DANIEL LIPPMAN 03/20/2019 05:04 AM EDT

—————

From an article that illustrates the basis for other countries’ leaders to respect Biden and hope he will ultimately lead America:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/20/biden-2020-foreign-policy-national-security-1228345

[onetexan]

46. +1 K&R

[calguy]

2. Go Joe Go

Unless something drastic changes in the race, Joe will be the nominee. I really do like the others running as well but the hard left policies they are pushing just will not fly with the general electorate. Been there, done that, way too many times. Joe is our best chance to beat trump.

[Alpeduez21]

10. Like when?

Dems have ALWAYS tried to placate the center. That has been the failure in strategy. Warren says it best because she will fight for the left instead of running away from it

[calguy]

11. Just like McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, etc. etc.

[Alpeduez21]

15. Those were TERRIBLE candidates

I want a candidate who will fight for me. Not ones who try to placate racists so they (he) can get votes. The Democratic Party needs to stop letting the right define it

[TwilightZone]

18. Your argument was that Dems always placate the center.

That is clearly false, unless you believe that Mondale/Ferraro, for example, were centrists or chosen to placate centrists. That's laughable.

As for the center, we're not going to win without a significant number of independents. At the presidential level, we've done better with candidates who were perceived to appeal to a wider spectrum, including moderates (Clinton and Obama), than we have with more liberal candidates. That may not be ideal, but it's been political reality for some time now.

[BlueWI]

22. There are so few liberal candidates lately that you really

have to go back to Mondale and McGovern for a non-centrist candidate.

Dukakis appeared more appealing to some due to the Jesse Jackson candidacy. I wouldn't put him on the left edge of the party.

I would count Obama as more liberal than Clinton - less prone to supporting a status quo line on the drug war and a tad less intervention-minded.

If the other poster had said that the Democratic party nominees have leaned center-moderate since Clinton (the 21st century), that would be correct. Including 2000, we have had three moderates lose the race for the presidency. The only time the Democrats have won since Clinton is with a fresh face that inspired the POC in the Democratic base and appealed to the sense of new possibilities. The record of moderate candidates since 2000, overall, is nothing to brag about.

[Demsrule86]

24. People who look at things this way don't understand the Reagan effect...the GOP held the presidency

for 12 years...and had Clinton not run to the middle,we would have lost in 92 also...and Perot helped of course. Clinton never had a majority...this country is at best center left...and the GOP have also taken the states which has really hurt us.

[BlueWI]

44. The winners had a more effective campaign - Clinton and Obama.

Everything I said in my previous post was correct. Moderate Democrats have a middling record, at best, in elections since 2000. It's a fact. Reagan was last elected in 1984, 35 years ago, and white Reagan Democrats are largely now in Trump's base. There is no magical formula for wins with 43%/49% like the Clinton wins, with Perot saving our bacon. This is 2020. There are demographic shifts even in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania that could be advantaged if there's a campaign that's more than stand pat, promises of middle class tax cuts and other worn out scripts.

Let the best candidate win in the primaries, strategize proactively rather than retroactively, outwork the opposition and most of all, stand for something with clarity and conviction. That way, the opposition may respect you and reasonable voters will support you.

This election, once again, is ours to lose. Another snoozefest campaign is the biggest risk to a clearly winnable election.

[Demsrule86]

25. Moderates took the house in 18...we need to appeal to those same voters or we could lose the house

and the presidency.

[BlueWI]

43. There are numerous ways to lose or win.

Last edited Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:33 PM - Edit history (1)

Not turning out the base killed us in 2016 - an actual presidential election year.

There is no magical strategy. The more narrow the thinking, the greater the chance of an unexpected outcome.

[Demsrule86]

45. No, the demonization of Hillary on the right and the left is why we lost and the refusal of

some to vote for a woman and of course the Stein monster and the Russians-a perfect storm...and we need states that the base can't help us with...if the base doesn't turn out no matter who runs then they are not the base but a wing of the party that can't win but can only spoil. The so called base have only themselves to blames for this country moving right which the midterms clearly show it did...they didn't turn out in 10 or 14 during the midterms...they didn't turn out forcefully in 16 and going back to 2000 and 2004 this is true as well. If you elect Republicans the country moves right... perhaps they should vote for the Democrat in the general always and see how that works out for us.

[BlueWI]

48. The left didn't vote for Trump.

Have you looked at exit polls results? Every election, liberals are the most likely to vote for the nominee. But on DU, the liberal wing is hectored and blamed constantly. You won't win any additional votes through hectoring the people that voted in the highest percentage for the nominee.

Tell your white moderate and conservative neighbors to stop voting Republican. 62 million of them voted for Trump. They shouldn't be hard to find.

And pressure the moderate Democratic candidates to refine their messages. It's hard to win in 2020 with a 1992 campaign. Social contexts have shifted.

[GulfCoast66]

27. Yeah, well that your opinion. But perhaps the real answer is not your hypothesis.

Perhaps the majority of our Party is actually Center Left. Not progressive.

That my bet. And Biden’s. So far it’s a winning bet.

But of course, things can change. Once voting starts we will know. My prediction is candidates that were all in for Medicare for all rather than improving the popular ACA are going to regret that decision. Actually no. That’s an insult I do not mean to make. I don’t think Warren is calculating but truly believes it best. I just don’t think most Democratic voters will agree.

[nbsmom]

32. Makes me wonder who you were supporting in 2004

Remember how Kerry was going to hand W’s ass to him? How he was much more “electable” than Dean? More recently, remember how Obama was not favored to win in 2008 but turned out he was electable after all?

I totally get it... we want Obama the Sequel, but guess what? Biden has already run 2x, and both times he wasn’t in the race past Iowa because of dumb stuff he did or said. And he was 11+ years younger the last time he ran at the top of the ticket. “Something drastic” could very well be something that Joe did or will do again.

Warren’s positions aren’t that left, it’s really that the center has been pulled so far to the right. If you look at things President Carter says, she’s basically right where he is. She’s also much more in alignment with the nation on pocketbook and labor issues. Biden will always be more of a corporatist, having represented all of those starving corporations who incorporated in his state. (Don’t get me started on how I feel about his record with credit card companies.)

If Joe is our best chance to beat Trump, we are well and truly screwed.

[Thekaspervote]

34. And jimmy Carter luv him I do was an ineffective one termer. He has as much as said so himself

You are certainly entitled to your opinion but, considering leaders around the world were asking Biden to run... totally screwed??..nope!

[nbsmom]

39. Make up your mind

I point out Carter not because he lost to Reagan, but because he won in 1976...after Nixon.

(And here I thought all Biden supporters were big on the idea of just one Biden term to “get us back on track”)


2018 midterms showed us that there are a LOT of people — even in red, Trump-voting districts — who are ready for change, believe in government by the people and for the people, and who are ready to vote for candidates who will serve them wisely and well.

These are the same people that you expect to get excited about voting for someone who has been running for elected office for nearly 50 years?

I’m sure that leaders around the world will be fine with the majority of our Dem candidates...maybe Biden can take on Secretary of State for a couple of years...

[thesquanderer]

3. Dumb question I wish they'd stop asking: most electable.

Polls that tell me how people will choose vs. Trump in the general are useful.

Polls that tell me who people think OTHER people will choose vs. Trump are useless.

[still_one]

4. It has nothing to do with scared. Because den has the most domestic and international experience,

and people know it

What a belittling comment that presumes Democrats can’t discern except fear

Similar nonsense was bantered around when Biden first entered the race, and the excuse they made for his lead was name recognition. Now it is fear

Quite interesting how some seem to project how Democrats think

The Democratic Party has never been a monolithic party

[Swift Hixson]

5. I don't like Harris's declining numbers

I didn't think Gabbard's dishonest hits would stick, but that's the American electorate.

[thesquanderer]

8. I don't think Gabbard's attack hurt as much as her (non-)response to it.

I also think doubling down on the busing thing may not have been the best idea. i.e.

HARRIS: And so, on that issue {busing}, we could not be more apart, which is that the vice president has still failed to acknowledge that it was wrong to take the position that he took at that time.

A lot of people don't think it was wrong for Biden to take the position he took at the time.

[JI7]

16. she is getting destroyed on social media with the putin trolls

[cwydro]

41. I don't think it was Gabbard's attacks as much as it was Harris' attack on Bi

That left a lot of us cold. She was in my top three until that happened.

It was just too calculated, and it was ugly.

[treestar]

6. Claim they are "scared"

That's convincing.

[peggysue2]

7. It's not just fear though undoubtedly that's there after everything we've witnessed

It's pragmatism.

We cannot improve anything until we knock the Squatter-in-Chief from his faux pedestal and beat as many Republicans across the country as we possibly can. Because Trump and his enablers are at the center of the festering wound. We have to cut that out before any healing, restoration or moving forward can occur.

That means choosing the most electable candidate to beat Trump like a drum, the candidate with the widest appeal and reach. That's not just those white guys in the Midwest but our AA electorate in the South and around the country. Hispanics, Asians, Native Americans, suburban women, working-class women, etc.

Right now Sleepy Joe is that candidate who can wake up Trump (Biden's words) and be the Trumpster's worst day and nightmare.

Btw, debating and campaigning are not the same. Elizabeth Warren had two very good debate performances. But it has not put her into the top polling slot. Because as this poll indicates, voters still question her ability to win all segments of our Democratic family. Without an uptick in minority support, she simply cannot win.

[Thekaspervote]

35. True. I like Warren's policies and ideas but she is not well liked in her own state. Should tell one

Something. Those that know her the best like her the least... why?

I’m not bashing her, IMHO I simply don’t think she could win in the general

[ucrdem]

9. It looks like the final contest will be Biden vs Warren

as many here have probably already noted. Joe is pretty clearly headed for the nomination, so it's just a question of how long Warren wants to keep campaigning. She has a right to take it to the convention if she has the delegates, and she might, but I hope she (or whoever) drops out sooner, say, right after super-Tuesday. The reason is that we really need to focus on shoring up the election machinery and not just the primary wars.

[calguy]

12. They can stay in the race as long as they want.

Just be civil about it please. Don't pull a Bernie and try to inflict maximum damage on the eventual nominee before the convention, during the convention, and going into the general.

[ucrdem]

13. Yes, that's exactly what I'm getting at.

I don't think Warren will do that, in fact I'm sure she won't. But unless Bernie really tanks, I don't see him doing anything differently this time than last time, even if he's a distant #3 or 4, and that could be a problem.

[calguy]

14. I have to agree with you

Unlike Bernie, Warren isn't about to burn the house down if she doesn't get her way. She has a lot of good positive messages to convey. While I don't agree with 100% of everything she's promoting, she should be able to continue to promote her ideas. I think she will do it with class as long as she campaigns.

[peggysue2]

17. That's what I anticipate

The final throes will be between Biden and Warren. Unless some unpredictable element enters the picture like a meteor strike.

[ucrdem]

19. I think it will be a tough fight, but not fatal

Warren will probably bring up abortion, bankruptcy, and a few other assorted sore points. But I think Joe will have good responses and remind her that he's been in the US mainstream all along and remains there now. And I think Warren will remain mindful of the future and avoid repeating the Harris maneuver.

Hoping anyway . . .

[Thekaspervote]

36. Agree! The way she handled herself in 2016, bowing to the most competent candidate says it all

She wanted to run then, in 2016 but did the right thing. I’m sure she will continue to do great work in the senate

[GulfCoast66]

29. I'm not as optimistic as you about Biden being in such control.

Of course I hope you are correct.

But Warren would NOT take it to the convention if Biden has a commanding lead. She is a good democrat who I could happily support. She would do what’s best for the party.

There is only one candidate, who even as the apparent loser would take it to the convention. History had proven such.

[ucrdem]

33. I'm not worried about Joe taking it.

He's already past the traps that sank him in previous runs and there are plenty of Dem debates remaining where he can shine if he wants to. I think he was a little rusty for several reasons, one being his Secret Service protection, but he's getting back into the swing of campaigning, which he's very good at, even though I hoped he wouldn't need to, as he probably did too. But the fact is that he's the one with the best credentials and is a likable, beloved and highly capable politician. To put it another way, his Teflon shows no signs of wearing thin so it's just a matter of making it through the next year of 24/7 campaigning which he seems fully prepared for.

[Thekaspervote]

37. Indeed!! And after today's speech in Burlington ia...wow just wow. All the pundits were talking

About it. It was outstanding. All of his qualities and qualifications were on full display.. it was a site to behold

[highplainsdem]

20. This is BS from Weigel, who's made his dislike of Biden clear for some time now. Plus he's

being very condescending toward Democratic voters. "Oh, they're scared, those poor dumb little things..."

Significantly, he left out the fact that the new Quinnipiac poll also shows that Biden's considered the best leader by a wide margin.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287230222

Just as significantly, he left out the fact that the only group of Dems that Warren has a wide lead with are the ones who consider themselves "very liberal."

Biden has a wider lead than that with black voters and with moderate/conservative Democrats. He leads Warren among "somewhat lliberal" Dems and among women voters.

So Weigel is basically trying to suggest that the ONLY Democrats who aren't "scared" are very liberal Democrats, and all other Democrats are simply motivated by fear, which is why Biden's ahead.

That's pure crap.

[emmaverybo]

31. What a post. I tried to take on this rubbish "fraidy cat" argument used to insult Biden supporters

and explain his lead in the polls, but got tongue-tied and didn’t have the stats.

He leads, for one, because so many see him as the best possible leader among the primary candidates.

[Blue_true]

21. I say it again. This race is coming down to Biden v Warren. nt

[Devil Child]

23. According to this poll, Harris has lost almost all of her support among black voters

Last poll had her at 7% and this poll has her at 1%. According to Quinnipiac, Biden is doing very well with black voters at 47%.

Current Aug 6th
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

Prior Jul 29th
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635

[democratisphere]

26. Time for the top 3 to move on, while the other candidates should now bow out.

[GulfCoast66]

30. Not sure I agree. We don't need to have an obvious target so early.

And it’s really early. Beto showed some major stuff today. Some should stay.

[quickesst]

38. Joe Biden is on top....

.... not out of fear but because of common sense.

[Princetonian]

47. I would vote for any Democrat who is most electable against The National Nightmare.

I am just happy Joe is the most electable. We'll find out soon enough if that is true -- despite the ageist attacks coming out of the White House, brain dead media, and political partisans.