***WOWZA*** BRAND SPANKING NEW A + RATED MONMOUTH IOWA POLL JB 28% EW 19% KH 11% BS 9%*

[DemocratSinceBirth]

IOWA DEM CAUCUS POLL: Early #2020Dem preference:
28% @JoeBiden
19% @EWarren
11% @KamalaHarris
9% @SenSanders
8% @PeteButtigieg
3% @AmyKlobuchar
3% @TomSteyer
2% @SenGillibrand
2% @AndrewYang

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ia_080819/

*Bernie got 49% last time.

[Princetonian]

1. Love your enthusiasm... lol

Marianne and Joe would approve.

[FarPoint]

4. If Joe Biden continues like he did yesterday...

He will be the next President...

[ProudMNDemocrat]

6. Joe will, he is PISSED at the LACK of moral leadership....

and he will tie every Republican to Trump.

As I suspect ALL of the Democratic Party candidates for POTUS and down ticket will. The heat needs to be applied heavily on Republican enablers of Trump's racism.

[Princetonian]

10. I watched Joe's speech twice with my family and friends at a birthday dinner party.

No one complained about watching CSPAN - we liked it that much. Teenagers who will be voting next year for the first time and adults alike in the room were delighted.

That was our general consensus too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I even added music.

[Princetonian]

14. Keeping your standards high, I see! lol

I love Motown but the entire 60's music era is so good. Oh and love the poll numbers, too!

[honest.abe]

2. If Joe wins Iowa big then its over.

He will coast to the nomination... imho.

[bluewater]

3. Pennsylvania Poll? Washington Poll?

[frazzled]

5. Two possible takeaways

1. The larger part of the Democratic voting public (in Iowa at least, but these numbers seem to mirror national trends in this moment) is not looking for big change, but is rather seeking a return to normalcy and some kind of known stability after these tumultuous few years.

2. Bernie Sanders is pretty much toast. (Though he has enough money to continue to the bitter end, and probably will.)

People in Iowa are paying attention already, so this poll is to be taken more seriously than most.

[BeyondGeography]

8. Alternatively, more than seven in ten Iowans appear to want something new

Unless there's another "return to normalcy" candidate out there besides Biden.

Anyway, I share your respect for Iowans but a review of polls this far out will show the end result rarely looks anything like what you see six months before the caucus. Apart from the Sanders number no candidates should be too alarmed or reassured by these numbers.

[frazzled]

17. Well, this poll is not predictive of the caucus results in the first place, because

it polls all the voters, and we all know that actual caucus voters are massively fewer in number, and are generally more in the activist camps for their candidates. So caucuses, in general, are not reflective of a state's voting predilections. That is why so many states have abandoned the caucus system: it's not very democratic.

Whoever wins Iowa will be the candidate who gets the largest portion of their supporters to turn out, who employ the tactics that make caucus attendees fall into line. (I've lived in a caucus state previously, plus one more with caucuses on the local and state level, so I know how they work. Loudest and boldest prevails, and they're often not pretty affairs.)

I was not talking about who will win Iowa. I was addressing the general trend I've noted among respondents in all the polls, state and national, at least at this point in time. Joe Biden has not been among my top picks for this nomination (about which I remain steadfastly uncommitted), but I am sensing the temperature of the populace, and what I (personally) read into it is that a plurality are still just looking for "the devil they know." (Please note: I am not in any way suggesting devilishness on the part of Joe Biden; it's just an expression for seeking the status quo.)

[bluewater]

9. Take away is: WARREN SURGES in IOWA!!!1!!1!!

[mopinko]

16. i dont think it is so much a return to normalcy as democracy.

as bad as cheato it, he is a symptom, and i think most people know that.
he is the poster child for the decline of american democracy, and for the consequences of corruption.

ew is showing us what we are capable of if we ever return the power to the people.
she is connecting dots all over the map, and the picture aint pretty.

[brooklynite]

7. Nate Silver says Gillibrand may have a window into the September Debate.

[Vegas Roller]

11. BS in single digits

yay!

[duforsure]

13. I like Joe, but,

He's in the past on several issues, and not as progressive , and smart as she is. She has proposals ready to go , and he's lagging behind, and he's often making mistakes . Many in DC fear her because of her intellect, and they can BS her on anything.

[Princetonian]

15. Nothing is written in stone as Barack showed us in 2008. Warren has a great organization in Iowa.

I would not be surprised to see a joint ticket if they are a good fit interpersonally.

[Hortensis]

18. Great. Thinking 9% v 49% is apples to oranges for Sanders.

Only Democrats were polled for this. In contrast, in 2016 Iowa had an open primary that anyone who wanted to try to sabotage the election could vote in. That would only be one of the reasons for the enormous difference, of course, but significant. We now know conservatives took advantage of open primaries in especially large numbers to engage in malicious crossover voting.

Good news is that IA has instituted many changes to its caucus since 2016. Including making it far more accessible by adding a "virtual caucus" open to voting for 6 days, not just the one in-person caucus, making it far less likely that supporters of one candidate can flood a very under-attended local event and take it over. And only supporters of a candidate who does not receive the minimum, 15%?, will be allowed to realign with another, not everyone.

Bad news is it's still technically open, and if Trump is still a candidate at that time malicious crossover to try to throw the state's delegates to a weak Democrat could be worse than ever.