8/8 PENNSYLVANIA poll: Biden 28%, Warren 21%, Sanders 12%, Harris 8%, Buttigieg 6%

[highplainsdem]

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/366978281722999151-f-m-poll-release-august-2019.pdf


This is a B- rated poll (rating by FiveThirtyEight) from Franklin & Marshall College.

[Miles Archer]

1. I'll say it again...

...I'll vote for and support the Democrat who lands at the top of the ticket, and I am hoping that Democrat is Joe.

[Cha]

2. KR!!

Thanks, highplains !

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. 8.7% MOE?!?!?!?!?!

Beyond meaningless, should be rated D-

For this poll, Biden, Warren and Sanders are statistically tied.

[DeminPennswoods]

4. Terry Madonna is the dean of PA pollsters

He has been at this for decades and knows the state inside and out. This is the best poll in the state, hands down.

Warren's support surprises me a bit since she hasn't really campaigned here, but Pennsylvanians must be paying more attention than usual at this point in the election cycle.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. I don't care if he is God, an 8.7% margin of error renders this poll useless.

In general, polls are considered valid only if the sample size is large enough to have a MOE of 2-3%, MAX

Biden, Warren and Sanders are all within the 8.7% MOE and tied with each other.

I bet Biden's camp don't think this poll indicates he's got a lock on PA...

[DeminPennswoods]

6. Subgroups often have very high MOEs, but

disregard this poll to suit your own narrative at your own peril.

I live in Pennsylvania and have followed this poll for years. Some of the other information specific to the state tracks with what I read and hear in my neck of the woods and with how the vote went in 2018.

Belive what you like, but I doubt Biden has PA "locked up" since the Warren/Sanders economic message is quite popular here. Sanders did really well in the 2016 Dem primary, winning 31 of 67 counties, all of which are in "red" areas of the state.

Also, the Warren/Sanders prefernce is equal to Biden's according to the poll. If you look at second choice candidates, Warren gets 25% of that vote. I think if she actually had campaign events here, she would be ahead.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. You seem to agree and disagree with me at the same time

We agree that Biden does not have PA “locked up”

We agree that Biden Sanders and Warren are essentially tied in this poll

We apparently disagree that this poll is worthless as far as predictive value, particularly the headline proclaiming Biden the clear front runner in PA, which is not supported by this poll and it’s 8.7% MOE, hence my rationale for disregarding it.

[ucrdem]

9. It's consistent with other coterminal polls.

So no, even with the MOE, they are not tied. It's the pattern that counts. No single poll is determinative. Unless your guy or gal is winning of course!

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. Yes they are tied- you are wrong

Add/subtract 8.7% from each of the results and you will see that Biden, Sanders and Warren are statistically tied.

For example, Biden’s support could be as low as 19.3%, and Warren’s could be as high as 29.7%.

With that level of variance in the reliability of the results, it’s usefulness is minimal, except as propaganda to promote a sense of inevitability. It was trust in these kinds of polls that led to overconfidence in Hillary’s support in the Rust Belt. (And those polls had narrower MOE)

This is the largest MOE I have seen for a state poll posted here; before that, the largest I had seen was 6.something for CA.

[ucrdem]

12. Yes but that's ridiculous. Sorry. nt

[oasis]

8. I like this!

[ucrdem]

10. It's getting to be a habit

a good habit!