NC polls a few months ago found Dems beating Trump. New NC poll has Trump ahead by narrow margin

[highplainsdem]

The new poll is from Civitas/Harper Polling, which is rated B by FiveThirtyEight:

https://www.nccivitas.org/polling/president-trump-leads-top-democratic-candidates-razor-thin-margin


A mid-June poll from Public Policy Polling (B rated) found Biden beating Trump by 3 points and Sanders beating him by 1.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/PPP_Release_NC_62019.pdf


A mid-May poll from Emerson College (B+ rated) found Biden beating Trump by 12 points, and 4 other Dems beating him as well in NC:

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/05/13/may-national-poll-biden-back-in-the-lead-for-the-democratic-nomination/



It'll be interesting to see if future NC polls show the race staying this tight. I really liked the 12-point lead BIden had over Trump in May, but that was at the height of Biden's poling, and he's been under attack by Dems as well as Republicans.

[empedocles]

1. Biden has been hurt more by Dems than 'cons

[redstatebluegirl]

3. Absolutely, we need to stop this circular firing squad RIGHT NOW!

[sacto95834]

7. I disagree....

Better to get all the "dirt" out now. Have answers for all past policy decisions. Fine tune, fine tune and fine tune. Because if you think the Republicans don't know about all these issues you haven't been paying attention.

Unlike the Repugs, I don't recall any personal attacks such as calling a candidate's spouse ugly, or their kids are stupid, etc. All "attacks" have been on policy and past stances taken on issues.

Whoever emerges as the party nominee can then bush aside all these accusations as done that, explained, move on.

[Skya Rhen]

8. There were attacks questioning Biden's race relations - that's as personal as it can get.

[empedocles]

9. The race card plays are only good for Dem v. Dem. 'cons can't use race against Biden.

[BannonsLiver]

13. There's no such thing as "getting all the dirt out now" for any of these candidates.

If all that dirt would be “gotten out” more would be along to replace it in short order.

[still_one]

5. absolutely

[TwilightZone]

2. Emerson has seemed like an outlier at times.

538 has them relatively highly-rated, but there have been a few occasions where their numbers have been significantly off the averages at those particular times. This could be one of those that appear to have been off.

The other two polls look like they're within the MOE of each other, so there may not be much real movement of late.

[redstatebluegirl]

4. If we keep living and dying by these polls we are going to lose big time.

I don't trust them one bit, and nobody else should either. They have not been reliable for a long time. Plus some of our people used the ones in 2016 as a reason to stay home because "she was going to win big anyway and it is raining I don't want to go out and vote".

[dsc]

6. NC will be close no matter what

Yes we have those horrid people who attended and participated in the Greenville rally. But we also have the research triangle, Durham, Charlotte and Asheville. Democrats have momentum right now. But no, we aren't going to win by 12 or even 6. We will win or lose by no more than 3.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Three different polls...hard to compare 'em.

That's why it's best to go with the average of all three to get a better read for the nature of the race.

We'll have to see if any additional poll backs up the Civitas or if it continues showing Trump struggling there.

[thesquanderer]

11. Bingo, you cannot divine trends by comparing polls that have different methodologies.

Saying Civitas shows Trump stronger than he was in PPP and Emerson polls months ago is virtually meaningless. You'd have to compare the new Civitas poll to previous Civitas polls.

And once you do that, comparing the new Civitas poll to the previous one (almost 6 months ago, but that's the last one they did), the story changes:

Trump vs. Biden today, Biden plus 8. Previous civitas poll, Trump plus 4.

Trump vs. Sanders today, Sanders plus 4.4. Previous civitas poll, Trump plus 12.

Trump vs. Harris today, Trump plus 1. Previous civitas poll, Trump plus 11.

[BannonsLiver]

12. Their loins are probably still tingling over El Paso

The joy over the massacre probably gave him a slight bump among NC GOP voters.