Economist/YouGov JB 21 (-1) EW 20 (+4) BS 16 (+3) KH 8 (-) Beto 5 (+3) PB 5 (-3)

[BeyondGeography]

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

1. ut oh....

[highplainsdem]

2. This is always one of the worst polls for Biden, and has been for a while. He's been as low

as 22 points before, and Warren's been as high as 19 points before, though this is the closest she''s been to him.

[BeyondGeography]

3. Yeah, that's why I posted it

The movement in Warren’s and Beto’s numbers is meaningful tho, IMO. Bernie too.

[bluewater]

4. Sign of the Times?

[BeyondGeography]

7. Fits with the vibe

Warren had a very positive week in Iowa. Beto showed moral leadership in El Paso. Glad it's showing up in the numbers.

[bluewater]

12. +1000 "Glad it's showing up in the numbers."

[bluewater]

5. That's how it works... the lower polls will change leaders first. Seems headed that way...

[bluewater]

6. RCP POLLS mistakenly lists Biden +2 higher in this poll, AGAIN.

They did the same thing last time too, yet the actual poll internals RCP links to shows the numbers shown in this post.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Click on the Economist/YouGovlink to go to the poll itself.

Transcribing error? Or a SINISTER pro-Biden Conspiracy? lol



It does effect the RCP Polls tracking average, so it's a shame they don't explain why this keeps happening. Only Biden's number is different than the actual poll internals.

[highplainsdem]

19. They're using the results for Democrats, not including the results that count independents as well.

The independents don't affect Democratic primaries in states with closed primaries.

Warren's doing better with independents than Biden is. I posted a separate OP about the results for Democrats.

[bluewater]

21. That's a bit Disingenuous by RCP, most polls include Dems and Dem leaning indies this far out

Since people have ample time to register for closed primaries.

[highplainsdem]

20. Whoops, they're wrong if that's supposed to be Dems only, too, since that was 24-21.

[bluewater]

22. Exactly. wtf is RCP actually doing?

[highplainsdem]

24. RCP had Warren 2 points higher than her actual YouGov number in the previous two polls, too.

They had her at 20% for the poll ending July 30, when she was actually at 18%.

And they had her at 18% for the poll ending August 6, when she was actually at 16%.

I haven't compared their numbers for Biden yet, don't have those handy, but I wrote down the Warren numbers because a glance back at the YouGov polls posted here in the last month showed she'd been poling in the high teens through July, 18% twice, so 20% now isn't that huge a bump compared to those earlier numbers.

[bluewater]

28. So RCP s just being generally shitty? Good catch!

Makes you wonder how many errors are in ALL the RCP summaries for ALL the candidates.

We caught their mistakes for Biden and now Warren because they are prominent candidates at this point in the race.

Who else has RCP mangled?

So much for the RCP Polls Tracker being a "go to" reliable source, eh?

[crazytown]

8. The number I am seeing is Biden 23%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[bluewater]

9. Seems like an error, click on the pollster name to see the actual results.

This is the second week in a row that RCP's summary had a +2 higher number for Biden than the actual poll results RCP itself links to.

They never explain why. Only Biden's number is different.

[highplainsdem]

25. See reply 24. RCP is posting higher numbers for Warren, too.

[BeyondGeography]

10. It's 21-20; see question 20 at the link

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c1mjtqtl2f/econToplines.pdf

[crazytown]

11. Yes. That is correct.

How could RCP fail to catch the error?

[bluewater]

14. Second week in a row their summary had Biden +2 higher than the actual poll.

and that effects the RCP Polls tracking average.

[BeyondGeography]

15. It's pretty amateurish; their execution does not align with their brand

[highplainsdem]

27. See reply 24. They've been getting Warren's numbers higher than the actual poll results, too.

At least some of the time.

I had Warren's numbers handy because I looked at the internal numbers for the YouGov polls back through the start off last month. When I compared them to what RCP listed the last few weeks, they've had Warren's numbers two points higher, too, at least at times.

[bluewater]

30. How many other results for other candidates has RCP been screwing up?

Again, we caught RCP's mistakes for Biden and now Warren because they are so prominent right now.

What about all the candidates?

So much for RCP POLLS being a reliable source.

[jcgoldie]

13. Nice to see Beto jump a bit

Maybe the folks who seem obsessed with him dropping out will STFU.

[essadaw]

17. +1

Agreed!

[andym]

26. Expect that Beto will poll better in the coming weeks

He made quite the impression confronting Trump in El Paso.

[theophilus]

16. Encouraging. A Warren/Abrams ticket would

clean the Republican clock. Vote 'em (Republicans) all out!

[jcgoldie]

29. Love that

But I really think Beto would be awesome for her if she wins the nomination to help put Texas in play. Of course you are right Abrams would be a great choice and possibly also boost AA turnout.

[dr03]

18. I'm Amazed

Amazed at all the people who think Biden is going to do anything. This guy has never gone anywhere before and doesn't excite anybody. He's Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton. Warren, Sanders, people like that, get people to go out and vote.

And I'm neutral. I'm going to vote for whoever ends up with the nomination, but Biden is just a bad candidate.

Biden's time was in 2016. Looking that way for Sanders as well.

[jcgoldie]

31. Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton

WHat a shit post. Bash Democrats much?

[dr03]

32. No

Like I said I'm neutral.


Biden doesn't energize people to go out and vote for him.

He's a safe option. When people label you that way it's not good.

[highplainsdem]

23. Btw, although Warren's # is +4 from last week, it's only +2 from her numbers in this poll last month

Poll ending July 9 - 17%
July 16 - 15%
July 23 - 18%
July 30 - 18%
Aug, 6 - 16%
Aug. 13 - 20%