Biden leads with 28%, Warren second at 21% in Pennsylvania poll

[Drunken Irishman]

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/366978281722999151-f-m-poll-release-august-2019.pdf

[highplainsdem]

1. K&R. B- rated poll, 84% accuracy rate according to FiveThirtyEight.

[Cha]

3. Thanks for the rating, HP..

We'll have to see an A rating PA one of these days.

[Blue_true]

6. It, like other polls is pointing to what I think it all comes down to.

Biden v Warren for the nomination.

The first face to face debate between the two is going to be huge.

[FloridaBlues]

2. Solid lead in Pa!

[Cha]

4. You switched, FloridaBlues!

[FloridaBlues]

17. Hi Cha

Yep going for biden

[cwydro]

20. I keep going back and forth between them.

Gah!

[True Dough]

5. Pennsylvania, a state Biden supporters insist only he can carry

and yet Warren has closed to within 7 percentage points this early? Y'all ought to be sweating!

[jcgoldie]

8. This

Pat yourselves on the back all you want but Liz is still surging.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. *sigh* another poll post without mentioning MOE - for this poll, 8.7%!!!!

That means Joe could be as low as 19.3%, and Warren could be as high as 29.7%

A MOE of 8.7% for the registered Democrat subgroup means that Biden and Warren are TIED.

[SouthernProgressive]

9. It doesn't mean that Biden and Warren are tied.

That is an abuse of statistical storytelling.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. It's a fact that, in this poll they are statistically tied

With a MOE of 8.7%,Joe could be as low as 19.3%, and Warren could be as high as 29.7%

Feel free to refute my assertion- I've already done the math for you.

[SouthernProgressive]

11. That is not a fact.

It’s one possibility among many. Interesting use of the word fact.

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. That's what the term "statistically tied" means

For the general, would you feel good if our nominee were polling 4% ahead of Trump in a crucial battleground state, but the MOE of the poll was 8.7%?

A poll like that would mean the race is statistically tied, and too close to call, just like the rust belt was in 2016, and just like this poll is, despite the screaming headlines, the race in this state is currently too close to call.

[SouthernProgressive]

13. This is what you stated.

“means that Biden and Warren are TIED.“

That is not a factual statement. The poll couldn’t tell you that.

Verbiage matters. “Statistical tie” and “Biden and Warren are TIED” aren’t even remotely the same. That is specially true when defining it as a “tie” is claimed to be a factual statement. The MOE leaves many possibilities.

[Princetonian]

14. Salient point, indeed!

Verbiage matters. “Statistical tie” and “Biden and Warren are TIED” aren’t even remotely the same. That is specially true when defining it as a “tie” is claimed to be a factual statement. The MOE leaves many possibilities.

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. A MOE of 8.7% creates so many possible outcomes that it is utterly inaccurate to say Biden leads nt

[SouthernProgressive]

16. It is no more inaccurate than claiming they are tied as a fact. NT

There is actually a higher probability that he is leading than it being tied, as a fact that you have stated.

The “math” you provide is an incomplete equation. No partial credit for not finishing the math.

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. Again I ask, and you haven't answered, would you be confident with an 8.7% MOE for the general?

If this were November 2020 and there was a poll showing our nominee with a similar lead over Trump, but the poll had an 8.7% MOE, would you still feel confident about our nominee winning?

"No need to campaign in Wisconsin, we've got a commanding lead! Our victory is inevitable!"

There were numerous polls like this in 2016, (with MOE's far less than the outrageous 8.7% for this poll) and because the media had lulled people into complacency with inevitability narratives in both the primary and the general, it created overconfidence and suppressed turnout (along with other factors of course)

Nate Silver gave Hillary a 66% chance of winning in 2016, with a MOE of less than 8.7% Nationally and in the Rust belt- if the vote were held today, Biden would have much less of a chance of winning this state primary than Hillary did.

Overconfidence and false narratives created by not looking past the headlines to analyze to MOE and methodology of a poll may be desirable short term strategies in the run up to the primaries, but are very dangerous in the long term...

[oasis]

19. Looking good. nt