Predict It now has Elizabeth Warren as the favorite to win the Dem nomination

[Quixote1818]

Warren is currently at 29 cents, Biden at 26, Harris at 14 and Sanders at 13 cents.



https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

[DemocracyMouse]

1. I predicted her winning 2 years ago. And put my hunch all across my bumper:

It read simply "Warren for prez"

I also happen to think she's the exact opposite of Trump: smart, truthful and caring. America, I figure, wants that.... desperately.

Just about all the other Dem candidates have those features too... it's just that Warren has been a national presence pushing for reform for years. She's proven her mettle and commitment.

[Kind of Blue]

4. +1000.

[BootinUp]

2. These things measure what people think, nothing

I’d want to bet on, lol.

[Quixote1818]

3. However, they are surprisingly accurate

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T043-C007-S001-the-surprising-accuracy-of-online-election-betting.html

[Celerity]

6. Intrade was very accurate, until the US basically shut it down by barring Americans from using it

DEATH AT THE SUMMIT

As CEO of Intrade, John Delaney harnessed the wisdom of the crowds, with often freakishly prescient results. Technocratic dreamers were ecstatic about the company's ability to predict the future, and maybe even reshape society. Today Delaney's company has collapsed and his body is entombed atop Mount Everest. A tale of bravado, bluster, and efficient markets.

https://psmag.com/social-justice/death-summit-67326

[BootinUp]

7. There is no

Better way than polling. It’s just that you do have to know a lot about polling to understand uncertainty. I’m not sure why you think an article starting off with a miss makes your point.

[Quixote1818]

9. If you think one miss vs a long track record of more wins than losses helps your argument

you really need to go take a statistics course. Yes they missed the last Presidential race but pretty much the entire world missed that election. Hillary still won the popular vote and lost by razor thin margins in 3 rustbelt states that polling had her winning by comfortable margins. Betting odds are only as good just before an election as the polling is. Does this guarantee Warren will win? Of course not, she just has the best odds currently based on the information at hand. Anything could change in a week or two with a scandal or a major foot in the mouth by one of the candidates. The point however, is that based on probabilities, statistics and centuries worth of track records, betting sites do a better than average job of determining outcomes so it's worth at least looking at what they are saying and watching the movements as the months pass.

[BootinUp]

10. I work with statistics plenty. Thank you. Bye. Nt

[Kind of Blue]

5. Awesome!

[ucrdem]

8. 29 cents for Warren?

Somehow I feel that doesn't fully capture her worth.


p.s. I expect the race between the top two to tighten but when the voting is over Joe will be our man. Bet on it!

[handmade34]

11. I would be A-OK

with a Warren Presidency…