Scorecard: How do Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren measure up in N.H.?

[Princetonian]

New Hampshire is an open primary like California. Appealing to independents will be key. I predict you will see all the top tier candidates talking nice. Joe has already started.

The article says Warren wins on number of visits out of the top tier candidates - though Delaney has gone 111 times but is still polling at 1% - Bernie wins on organization (no surprise there) while Joe wins top marks with the independent voters.

The latest Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll found a top tier of candidates had emerged in the New Hampshire contest: former vice president Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. And then there is everyone else (yes, all 20 of them)...

One of the biggest factors in the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary will be voters who don’t even consider themselves members of the party. Independent (technically undeclared) voters make up 43 percent of the state’s electorate and can choose to take a Democratic or Republican ballot in the February primary.

These independent voters helped fuel Sanders’s win in the 2016 primary, but so far polling suggests they are going elsewhere.

Advantage: Biden. The Suffolk/Globe poll had Biden winning this group with 19 percent, compared with Sanders at 15 percent and Warren with 13 percent.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/08/17/scorecard-how-biden-sanders-and-warren-measure/XS7lWX3LkVuRn7HrB7KQ2J/story.html?event=event25

[lunamagica]

1. K&R for visibility

[still_one]

2. The early primaries will most likely tell us very little. It will be Super Tuesday where things

really get started

[comradebillyboy]

4. News coverage magnifies the importance of early

primaries out of all proportion.

[Garrett78]

5. The early primaries will, as usual, be very influential.

It's why starting with Iowa and New Hampshire (states that don't remotely reflect our electorate) irks so many of us. Certain traditions need to die.

The dominant narrative that comes out of those first couple of contests has a major influence. South Carolina will arguably be the most influential early state, but what happens in South Carolina will be largely influenced by what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire (and Nevada, I suppose). The reason why South Carolina is so crucial is because of the large percentage of Black voters. Black folks can't afford to gamble and need to see who is truly viable, which - unfortunately - will be determined by what happens in 2 states that don't reflect our electorate.

Never underestimate the influence of the dominant media narrative.

California being back on Super Tuesday is substantial, but the earlier contests will hold influence there, as well. California voting on Super Tuesday isn't new, by the way--it used to be the norm.

[still_one]

6. I suspect the votes will be split pretty evenly on the top 3 or 4 candidates

[Garrett78]

7. Possibly, but that's far from guaranteed.

And having so many candidates, even if half drop out before Iowa, muddies the water to the benefit of those with the most name recognition.

Anyway, we really need to have different states kick things off.

[ucrdem]

3. Excellent point.

per wikipedia SC, MI, and WI also have open primaries. That kind of sucks, but it's not going to change in the next six months so we have to factor that in.

[Princetonian]

8. Yes, we will. Presently, SC polling does not factor its open primary dynamic into account.

There are 15 states with open primaries but not all of them are relevant after Super Tuesday:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States