Emerson COLORADO poll: Sanders 26%, Biden 25%, Warren 20%, Harris 13%, Buttigieg 5%

[highplainsdem]

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/08/20/colorado-2020-sanders-biden-and-warren-lead-democratic-field-democrats-look-to-gain-senate-seat/

Sanders’ base of support is among 18-29 year olds where he takes 42% of the vote, and he also leads with 30-49 year olds with 34% of the vote but takes only about 12% of the vote from those over 50. Conversely, Biden leads with those over 65 with 43% of the vote while his numbers drop with the younger voters bottoming out at 18% of 18-29 year olds. Warren gets a more consistent percent of the vote from each age group. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling notes, “the Colorado data is similar to other state and national polls where Sanders holds a base with the youth vote, Biden has his base with older voters and Warren holds equally strong across age groups. If either Sanders or Biden slip, Warren may be the beneficiary”.

Of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Primary, 45% now support Biden, 21% support Warren, 14% support Harris, and just 4% support Sanders. Among those who voted for Sanders in 2016, 53% still support him, 24% support Warren, 9% support Biden, and 3% support Harris.

For the first time in twenty years, Colorado will be holding a primary instead of their traditional caucus which has potential to impact the turnout model of the state. In 2016, Sanders won the state 59% to 40% over Hillary Clinton, but a look at potential new voters shows the top four candidates all popular and vying for new voters’ support. Of new voters who plan to vote in the primary, Harris receives the highest percentage (21%), followed by Sanders (20%), Warren (17%), and Biden (16%). Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, says that “Colorado will be interesting to watch in 2020 because of the change in their nominating rules, going from a caucus to a primary, should increase turnout from about 13% to perhaps as high as 50% and we will see which candidate is able to attract those new voters, so far they appear split among the top four candidates.” In 2016 Sanders won 11 of 18 caucuses but lost 30 of 41 primaries.

When Democratic voters were asked if they could change their mind and vote for someone else or if they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate, 64% say that there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, whereas 36% say they will definitely vote for the candidate they chose. Younger and older voters appear the most set in the choices; 50% of those under 30 and 42% of those over 65 plan to stick with their candidate. Among those aged 50-64, a lesser 26% say they would keep their choice and 33% of 30-49 year olds said the same.

[still_one]

1. Thanks for a full analysis highplains

[highplainsdem]

2. You're welcome! That's the pollster's analysis, but it was helpfully handy so I could just

copy it in as I was posting poll results from this and a Nevada poll. (Haven't had coffee yet, not about to try to analyze the internal numbers myself.)

Sanders seems to have held on to more of his 2016 supporters in this CO poll than in some other polls I've seen.

He has a tremendous lead with the youngest group of voters. OTOH, those are much less reliable voters than the ones over 50.

[still_one]

3. I agree

[hlthe2b]

4. Not really surprised. Lots of Sanders support in the 2016 Caucuses

led to HRC's primary loss, though an overwhelming CO win in the General. Obviously, we will get to see how skewed are the caucuses when CO decides in a primary election this time around. Still, I think this poll suggests he has retained quite a bit of that prior support.

[honest.abe]

5. I wonder if those contacted realize this is not going to be a caucus.

Some may have just hung up since many dont have time or the energy to attend a caucus. If so, that would skew the results to Sanders.

[highplainsdem]

6. Good question.