Biden's Polling Average down to 29%

[bluewater]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Disclaimer: It's still 5.5 months before actual voting start.
Recently , it was notice by myself and other posters that RCP sometimes gives a candidate 1-2% higher results than a particular poll's actual number. This was observed for both Biden and Warren over recent weeks, perhaps more candidates results have errors. So far, these occasional errors seem to be on the high side, with a candidate being listed as having more support than the given poll.

The RCP Polling Averages tracker shows Biden back down to 29%. Sanders and Warren also down while lower tier candidates rebound somewhat.

Honestly, with a well known front runner polling at just a 29% AVERAGE, it seems the race for the 2020 Nomination remains wide open.

[SunSeeker]

1. Damn, these polls are all over the place.

[onetexan]

2. Down to??

He's been polling between 27 - higher. Consistebtly higher than the rest of the field.

[bluewater]

3. The tracking chart shows the trends, so yes, down to 29% as of today.

Biden was at 32.4% AVERAGE support as recently as August 4th.

He is at 29% AVERAGE support today.

[Vegas Roller]

5. Biden will track higher in 3 days

after today's polls are added to the average.

So your glee will be short-lived.

[bluewater]

7. Today's CNN Poll IS shown in the average. Look at the link again.

Biden received 29% support in today's CNN Poll.



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Please don't shoot the messenger.

The polling average is what the polling average is.

Any individual poll will move the average up or down, but what means more is to observe the trend over several polls over at least a week or two.

[Vegas Roller]

28. Yes .. but one of the older polls will drop from the average

and raise the average higher.

[Kahuna7]

19. ...

[Thekaspervote]

8. Same poll shows he maintains the same lead he's had for at least a week 13.2%

[still_one]

10. The OP definitely doesn't want to put any positive light into n Biden. Must be disappointing that

CNN and Bloomberg did

[bluewater]

14. The Polling AVERAGE is what the Polling AVERAGE is.

[Vegas Roller]

30. I feel your pain

I know BS and EW are not doing well and will split the Northern White vote.

The South, Midwest and West and POC are solidly behind Biden and that won't change.

The dynamics of this election are concretizing.

[onetexan]

31. That was my point. CN was obviously putting a negative spin on Biden

[Celerity]

33. the tracking chart, for what it's worth

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. More concerning is the enthusiasm gap for Joe

If he can’t maintain enthusiasm and inspire significant increases in voter turnout, Trump will be re-elected.

there’s an enthusiasm gap for Biden among some primary voters, the poll found. A majority of those surveyed, 56%, said Warren would fight “a great deal” for people like them, and 54% said the same of Sanders. Only 38% described Biden that way.

When asked who has been the most “passionate” so far, Warren and Sanders each had 28%, while Biden had just 14%. Warren, who has touted her policy proposals, was seen as the most specific candidate, with 42%, while Harris was seen as the strongest with 32%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-21/biden-leads-in-new-cbs-democratic-poll-but-faces-enthusiasm-gap

[Thekaspervote]

13. Here's another take on why voters may feel the way they do from The Guardian.

Essentially voters aren’t looking for excitement, but instead a return to normal

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/19/joe-biden-exciting-candidate

[onetexan]

32. Return to normal - exactly

The reassurance with Biden is the key. There isnt need for overblown enthusiasm considering the dire straits we're in now with this Idiot in the WH.

[George II]

6. And yet he's roughly equal to the 2nd and 3rd place candidates combined, one of whom....

....has been running for President since 2015.

[bluewater]

11. Crazy wide open race, eh?

It all comes down to whom voters cluster to as the field narrows,

So, again, the race for the 2020 Nomination appears wide open with a front runner who is polling just at a 29% AVERAGE of support.

[Princetonian]

9. Meanwhile "Harris plummets in new 2020 poll...out of the first and even second tier"

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287246549

to highplainsdem

[highplainsdem]

15. That link has HTML editing code, won't work for anyone but you. Here's the link to the thread:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287246549

[honest.abe]

12. Over the past 7-10 days Warren is down even more.

That should be in your headline.

[Thekaspervote]

16. Yes, it should since the spread in the candidate's numbers have not shifted leads

[bluewater]

18. Front runners always get the headlines ;)

But the OP did explicitly mention that both Sanders and Warren were down too and that lower tier candidates rebounded somewhat.



So, with a FRONT RUNNER just at 29% AVERAGE support in the polls, it's obvious the race for the 2020 Nomination remains wide open.

[honest.abe]

20. And Warren is also a front runner in some polls.

Her drop in the polling average is worthy of a headline if Joe's drop is also worthy.

I would not say its wide open.. 30% is a big number given the large number of candidates. As they drop out many will go to Joe.

[Thekaspervote]

24. Here's a peak at how that drop out will affect the state of the race

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287237414

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

[Thekaspervote]

22. You are certainly entitled to your opinion

With the lead remaining unchanged between the candidates it isn’t significant

[highplainsdem]

21. Biden's been polling at about 30% most of the time for 10 months now, per CNN's Harry Enten.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-08-20-19/index.html

See the blog entry there with the headline Joe Biden's lead isn't going away like Jeb Bush's did.

The truth, however, is that the former vice president is pretty steady. With the exception of a major upswing upon his announcement and major decline following the first debate, Biden's been hovering around 30% in the polls for about 10 months now.

He was at 33% in October 2018, 29% in March 2019, 32% in May 2019 and 29% in our latest poll.

Weak front-runners in past years had already given up their national leads by this point. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had dropped to 13% in an August 2015 CNN poll. He lagged well behind Donald Trump.

-snip-

Candidates polling at what Biden is nationally win nominations about 40% of the time.

But perhaps most important is what our poll cannot show. Biden's national lead is backed up by smaller (though still consistent) advantages in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Most failed front-runners like Bush, Lieberman and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani were well behind in the early states by this point.

[bluewater]

25. So your point is Biden has been flat lining at 30%?

Not really.

There has been considerable movement.

His support was considerably higher in May at ~41%, dropped to ~35% for a week at the end of May beginning of June, plateaued at ~32% for 3 weeks until the first debate when it dropped down to 26.8%, it then gradually recovered to 32% by the end of July reaching 32.4% on August 4th.

Over the last two weeks his average support has decreased down to 29%.

The RCP Polls Tracker chart clearly shows this movement and the trends.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[highplainsdem]

29. Flatlining refers to death. Candidates stuck at a couple percent or less are flatlinging. Biden is

maintaining a lead despite a very crowded field and very strong opponents.

That shows strength, not weakness.

Yes, he got a bump in the polls following his announcment. That's standard.

His maintaining a lead for TEN MONTHS is not standard of any candidate I can recall who later failed to win the nomination.

This race is NOT "wide open" when Biden's two closest rivals have been dividing, with varying shares, a base of support no larger than Biden's support in most polls.

It's not "wide open" when the candidates following the top 3 are usually stuck in single digits, most of them with less than 1/10 the support Biden has.

Biden is WINNING in these polls, whether or not you like it.

[Thekaspervote]

34. Bottom line ...Biden still maintains the same lead over the other candidates 13.2%

[highplainsdem]

26. I just redid the message above to post as an OP:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287246804

[JI7]

23. the problem may be that the so called top tier candidates can't beat Biden

maybe someone who is polling lower and not as well known might be able to if they get more attention and people get to know them more.

[mtnsnake]

27. I agree.

This is still mainly a name recognition race when it comes to the polls. It's only human nature that half the people being polled are only choosing Biden because they hear he's been ahead in the polls to begin with. IMO, there are 3 or 4 low polling candidates who would be a much safer bet to beat Trump than Biden.

[msongs]

35. alternative title to OP - "warren down..." nt

[Kind of Blue]

36. Seeing that he was at 55% of dems in June then down to 40%

in June and 29% in May and still there. Just snapshots but hope remains strong that he's not the nominee.