Re the latest poll

[mcar]

And why I'm paying little attention to them this early.

Link to tweet

?s=19


Jonathan Capehart
✔
@CapehartJ
Here's the thing about that new CNN poll showing a 12-point drop for Kamala Harris:

400 people with a +- of 6.1%. Not exactly reliable.

[George II]

1. I've been thinking all day about this - everyone else is right around where they were....

....in the last CNN poll (except Biden is up 7), she dropped 12%. Seems like something is amiss.

Biden 22 to 29 (+7)
Warren 15 to 14 (-1)
Sanders 14 to 15 (+1)
Harris 17 to 5(-12)
Buttigieg 4 to 5 (+1)
O'Rourke 3 to 3 (no change)

[mcar]

3. Yes

So many polls, so frequently. None of us have time to delve into the weeds of them. Media just wants their memes.

[blm]

8. Just too off to be credible

[Kind of Blue]

2. Cool, just when I'd given up on Capehart. He did something that I easily neglected.

All hands and brains on deck.

Thanks for posting, mcar!

[mcar]

4. Welcome

[still_one]

5. National polls mean very little mcar. That isn't how presidents are elected, while state polls

have more significance, I would argue this far out they mean very little also


Too many candidates which creates too much volatility

[mcar]

6. That's right

National polls are relatively meaningless.

[Iliyah]

7. Yeah, CNN poll regarding Senator Harris

was quite fishy.

[NYMinute]

9. Her "that little girl was me" bounce reversed - that's all. nt

[highplainsdem]

10. Harris has lost 8 points in RCP's poll averages since early July, her polling height after the

first round of debates. (The previous CNN poll was done in the days after that debate; they've gone more than two months between polls.)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html


She's gone from 15.2 on July 5 to 7.4 today, in the RCP average.

Looks like the CNN poll might be responsible for the last .6 of that drop, since she was at 8 yesterday.


https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Morning Consult has had her at 6% in the early primary states, with even Steyer ahead of her, though their polling has her doing better nationally, at 9%. That's down from a high of 14% in early July..She was at 6% a week before that first debate. She'd had a high of 14% back in February, too, but most of the time she's been polling in single digits. She was polling between 6% and 9% for the three months before the debate. That's Morning Consult. The RCP average had her between 7% and 9% during the same few months before the debate.

So she got a substantial bounce, but now it's gone.

[Skya Rhen]

12. Thank you for putting this in proper perspective by using documented stats...

[Hassin Bin Sober]

11. Unskewing the polls!