Monmouth poll: Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren in three-way lead for Democratic bid

[JoeOtterbein]

[link:https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/monmouth-august-democrats-biden-warren-sanders/index.html|

(CNN)Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden top the Democratic field for president in 2020, with no clear leader, according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday.

The three candidates are bunched together, each receiving about the same amount of support (Sanders 20%, Warren 20% and Biden 19%) from registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters.
They're followed by California Sen. Kamala Harris (8%), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (4%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (4%), businessman Andrew Yang (3%), former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro (2%), former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (2%) and author Marianne Williamson (2%). All other candidates received 1% or less in the poll.
Since Monmouth's June poll, Sanders and Warren have gained slightly (up 6 and 5 percentage points), while Biden has lost significant support (down 13 points).

more at link

[Uncle Joe]

1. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread JoeOtterbein.

[LanternWaste]

12. So polls finally matter because...?

And here we've heard over and over they simply don't matter this far out.

Seems you're moving the goalposts of their relevance simply because this one is politically expedient.

[Uncle Joe]

16. I agree LanternWaste , this far out polls can most definitely be taken with a grain of salt, they

are at best only a snapshot in time and depending on the turnout of the electorate, ie; if the younger generations turn out in force, they can be flawed because those generations are heavily discounted.

The goalposts are in the same place they have always been.

[qazplm135]

17. They are of limited utility

In telling you who will ultimately win.

They are obviously of more utility in telling you who has momentum in the moment and who is likely to be competitive over the long haul.

And as many have said, there is zero reason to believe Biden is the likely winner anymore than Sanders or Warren. And there is plenty of time for Harris or even Buttigieg to gain enough to have a shot.

It's early and it's wide open.

[mobeau69]

2. Bam!

I'll have no problem getting excited and enthused about supporting Warren as our nominee!

[qazplm135]

3. so if my math is right

there's still like another 20% or so floating out there to be allocated to someone.

Lotta time left and a lot can and I believe will change.

Someone is going to pull ahead...I suspect whomever wins Iowa will have a large leg up in NH.

[mobeau69]

5. Yep, a lot of people here called this race over way too soon.

[CentralMass]

4. K&R

[Skya Rhen]

6. Patrick Murray, Director of Monmouth Polling, admitted on CNN that his poll can be an outlier...

Both Monmouth and CNN polls were conducted around the same time period, where the CNN poll has Biden with a 14 point lead...

[LincolnRossiter]

9. Hopefully an outlier. Worst national poll for Joe since he declared.

I buy Warren's surge, but not Sanders'.

If this is indeed indicative of the race, I hope Joe and his team are prepared to make some first-quarter adjustments.

[True Dough]

11. This is the beginning of a trend, IMO

We'll see more like it.

[LanternWaste]

13. What specifically leads you to believe only now a trend is being drawn?

[LincolnRossiter]

14. We'll see.

I have some serious reservations about the electability of the other top-tier candidates. Sanders might lose 35 states. Warren could do better. Buttigieg may be the smartest and most savvy political talent to enter a national race in years, but I fear the country isn't ready for a gay president.

[George II]

7. Remember, this poll has one of the biggest MOE - 5.7% either way.

[Lordquinton]

20. So you're saying Joe could be at 14%?

Yikes!

[Dopers_Greed]

8. My preferred outcome at this point

1. Sanders drops out and endorses Warren
2. Warren wins the nomination and the presidency

[corbettkroehler]

10. In Line With My Admittedly Unscientific Count

But I concur with those here who remind us that it's early. Not a single vote has been cast yet.

[floppyboo]

18. Demographics: Women 62%, Men 32%

So much for the Bernie bros bullshit!
Yay, says this older demographic woman!

[FoxNewsSucks]

19. So the top 40%

is actually split between the most liberal/progressive candidates. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren combined get 40%.

Sanders/Warren 2020, with more progress to come in 2028. Enough with the "establishment" and "corporate-friendly" democratic candidates. We don't need more of that.

[Gothmog]

21. From Nate Silver re recent Monmouth poll

Link to tweet

Link to tweet