New B+ Emerson National Poll: Biden is the only Democrat who beats Trump (Aug 24-26, +/-2.5%)

[Princetonian]

Democratic primary voters appear to be locking in their choices, with 50% saying they will definitely vote for the candidate they’ve chosen at this time, up from 41% who were decided in early July. Biden and Sanders have the most loyal supporters, with 63% and 62% of their supporters indicating they are sticking with their candidate. Additionally, 45% of Warren supporters and 39% of Harris supporters say they will stick with their choice.

Presidents Trump’s approval has dropped a point to 43%. His disapproval rating has risen 6 points from the last Emerson poll in July to 52%, his highest disapproval rating since January’s national poll. However, despite this, he continues to lead his potential GOP opponent, former MA Gov. Bill Weld 84% to 16%. (n=558, +/-4.1%)

In five hypothetical general election match-ups, Trump trails Biden, but is in a statistical dead heat with the four other leading Democratic candidates.

Source Link: http://emersonpolling.com/2019/08/27/august-national-poll-sanders-closing-gap-with-biden-mayor-pete-fades/

[Vegas Roller]

1. Except for Biden, all others are within the MOE nt

[Vegas Roller]

6. Wrong math

48+2.5 = 50.5
52-2.5 = 49.5

So .. if a MOE is applied, it will be Trump 50.5, Sanders 49.5 .... and that is before Trump & Co viciously attack using things like those a mobile billboard said in NY.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=254033

[bluewater]

9. You are correct. It's a head to head poll, hence twice the moe.

Thanks, my math was off.

I will edit or self delete.

[Bettie]

5. Well then, guess we should just declare the primary

over and skip all that messy, useless voting stuff.

[emmaverybo]

13. None of us knows what will happen. There are many pro-Warren posts each day touting huge crowds,

surges in the polls, positive media commentary, etc. Rightly so. Same with rest of the field’s supporters. Some post daily info graphic ads, big splashy testimonials.

Biden supporters don’t find much positive media, while at DU, the most vocal and numerous supporters prefer other candidates. Why should posting polls that reflect Biden’s support outside DU be seen as anti-Democratic? Why should some Biden cheerleading attract near-censure?

There are at least four or five posters who daily post more than one anti-Biden thread, three or four! Then the OP “mans” the thread to get in as many more negatives as possible and dampen any overt Biden enthusiasm.

As you imply, early days, just polls, so no threat. Let supporters support. Let us celebrate here and there. It is not as though Biden is a DNC or media darling. We are not calling the primary. But
just as some have their standard Bernie or Warren or Pete or Harris arguments, we have our points. That point, a theory of Biden’s potential to win in primary or GE, is not voter suppression, after all.

[Bettie]

14. I dislike being told

that voting doesn't matter and X, Y, or Z has it wrapped up. This is what the Biden supporters tend to say on every post.

[emmaverybo]

15. Please show me what post in this thread implied that voting doesn't matter. Biden himself has

said he doesn’t have a wrap.

[Thekaspervote]

16. I too will patiently wait for the reply

[Princetonian]

18. I'll wait with you two.

[Bradshaw3]

7. ALL top Democrats beat dump in new Quinnipiac poll

Released a few hours ago:

https://www.msnbc.com/velshi-ruhle/watch/all-top-democrats-beat-trump-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-67668549781

Biden, Sanders and Warren are just a point apart in beating dump, within the margin of error.

Quinnipiac is A- rated. Sorry to rain on the parade.

[Princetonian]

11. What's the Quinnipiac poll's MOE? What is their value of N? Emerson polled 1458 respondents.

This August Emerson Polling poll has one of the smallest MOE I have seen in recent memory. There's not much difference between A- and a B+ polls depending on their MOE and N values, both of which are very good here.

The national Emerson College poll was conducted August 24-26, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,458, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by age, region, income, and education based on 2016 turnout modeling.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/08/27/august-national-poll-sanders-closing-gap-with-biden-mayor-pete-fades/

So potentially, Biden will overperform in 2020 among black voters relative to 2016's lower turnout.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Thx for posting Princetonian...

Go Joe go...we’ve got your back!!

[Thekaspervote]

10. Here's an informative comment about why Biden is our best chance

10. No. If anything, this reinforces the idea...

The margins in this poll are pretty close once you get outside Biden-Trump. When margins are close, as we saw in 2016, any type of shift can be devastating.

The final RCP poll average in Michigan for 2016 was:

Clinton 47
Trump 43.4

There was generally one constant with Hillary's lead in Michigan - she didn't eclipse 50% in most polls - especially the final week of the campaign. You take those two averages (47+43.4) and you get 90.4% - which meant, on the whole, there was an average of 10% who was either voting third party or hadn't decided.

Trump won Michigan with 47.3% to Hillary's 47%.

What happened? Hillary's support stayed the exact same - but Trump's support grew as he picked up most the undecided voters. The margins were so close (3.6) in an average of the final polls, that it allowed him to barely win the state.

Looking at this poll, only one candidate is above 50% - Biden. In fact, in the last three Michigan polls, Biden has topped Trump with 54, 53 and 51%. In those same polls, Warren has topped Trump once by 50+% - back in March. In the most two recent polls, she's been at 47 and 49%. Bernie has done a bit better, eclipsing 50% in two polls but not in this poll.

Margins are important. The one constant, above anything, is that Biden not only beats Trump - he does so handily.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
JOE BIDEN

Pointed out by DU’er the drunken irishman

[Princetonian]

12. Good point! There'll be little room for late-breaking undecideds with Joe's poll numbers.

Thanks for adding yet another insight as to why VP Joe is Democrat's best choice for winning the general election, Thekaspervote.

10. No. If anything, this reinforces the idea...

The margins in this poll are pretty close once you get outside Biden-Trump. When margins are close, as we saw in 2016, any type of shift can be devastating.

The final RCP poll average in Michigan for 2016 was:

Clinton 47
Trump 43.4

There was generally one constant with Hillary's lead in Michigan - she didn't eclipse 50% in most polls - especially the final week of the campaign. You take those two averages (47+43.4) and you get 90.4% - which meant, on the whole, there was an average of 10% who was either voting third party or hadn't decided.

Trump won Michigan with 47.3% to Hillary's 47%.

What happened? Hillary's support stayed the exact same - but Trump's support grew as he picked up most the undecided voters. The margins were so close (3.6) in an average of the final polls, that it allowed him to barely win the state.

Looking at this poll, only one candidate is above 50% - Biden. In fact, in the last three Michigan polls, Biden has topped Trump with 54, 53 and 51%. In those same polls, Warren has topped Trump once by 50+% - back in March. In the most two recent polls, she's been at 47 and 49%. Bernie has done a bit better, eclipsing 50% in two polls but not in this poll.

Margins are important. The one constant, above anything, is that Biden not only beats Trump - he does so handily.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
JOE BIDEN

Pointed out by DU’er the drunken irishman

[LincolnRossiter]

17. Really warms my heart. The Biden part.

Biden and Sanders have the most loyal supporters, with 63% and 62% of their supporters indicating they are sticking with their candidate.

[Princetonian]

19. Yeah, after being enthusiasm-shamed, it turns out Biden supporters are the most loyal of all.

But we knew that.