Joe Biden still bests fellow Democrats on electability, polls show

[highplainsdem]

New analysis this morning from CNN's Harry Enten:


https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/07/politics/joe-biden-wisconsin-poll-of-the-week/index.html

Poll of the week: A new Marquette University Law School poll from Wisconsin finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 51% to 42% in a hypothetical matchup. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is ahead of Trump 48% to 44%, while California Sen. Kamala Harris and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren are tied with Trump at 44% and 45% respectively.

What's the point: Two things are apparent when looking at the Wisconsin and national numbers. Wisconsin leans a little bit more to the right than the nation, and Biden does better there than any of the other Democrats against Trump.

Biden's 9-point advantage in Wisconsin compares to 10 points over Trump in an average of August national polls. Meanwhile, Sanders is up 6 nationally, a little behind his 4-point Wisconsin advantage. Warren's tie in Wisconsin is less than her 3-point edge in August national polls. Finally, Harris's Wisconsin tie lags her 2-point average national lead.

-snip-

Right now, the polling says Biden -- even with his gaffes on the campaign trail -- is currently the safest bet in for Democrats to ensure Trump doesn't pull off a 2016 repeat in Wisconsin. This, of course, plays into Biden's argument about being the most electable Democrat overall, something that seems to be powering his advantage in the primary given Democratic voters are prizing electability more than usual.

Now, these numbers can obviously change, but it would be a mistake to dismiss Biden's superior numbers against Trump compared to his fellow Democrats as mere name recognition.

-snip-

Looking more broadly, the other candidates don't seem to be reaching Biden's levels against Trump even as they become better known as the year carries on. Sanders has held an average 5-point lead this year in the national polls, which is near his 6-point August edge. Warren's lead against Trump in the average national poll this year has been 2 points, similar to her 3-point August lead. Harris' edge has been 1 point in the average poll this year, which is nearly identical to her 2-point August advantage.

-snip-

Enten goes on to point out that Biden's numbers are "holding up significantly better" that Clinton's were four years ago.

The key to Biden's lead is actually quite simple: He's winning over those who disapprove of Trump's job performance. As I noted back in May, Biden's winning about 95% of those who disapprove of Trump's job performance nationally. In Wisconsin, Trump's deficit to Biden of 9 points is nearly identical to Trump's net approval rating (approval - disapproval) of -8 points.

In this way, Biden is following the playbook of the midterms and not Clinton. Democrats running for the House in 2018 won 90% among those who disapproved of Trump's job performance. In doing so, they took back the House. Clinton, on the other hand, won just 77% of those who held an unfavorable view of Trump.

[Sloumeau]

1. Thank you so very much for posting this.

Biden Rocks!

[highplainsdem]

2. You're very welcome, Sloumeau!

[Thekaspervote]

3. Really good news!

Go Joe go!! We’ve got your back!!!

[highplainsdem]

7. I thought so!

[crazytown]

4. The fact that Sanders usually comes second in these polls

suggests to me that electability is a cipher for name recognition.

[highplainsdem]

9. Enten: "...it would be a mistake to dismiss Biden's superior numbers against Trump compared to his

fellow Democrats as mere name recognition."

[stonecutter357]

5. K&R

[peggysue2]

6. Doesn't surprise me

Joe Biden from Day 1 took the fight directly to Trump:

A struggle for the soul of the country, an existential threat, an aberration that if continued will change the very fabric of the Nation.

And this is where the energy needs to be IMHO because the 2020 race will ultimately be a referendum on Trump and Trumpism. Biden has been criticized for fighting with a General Election playbook. However, as Trump becomes ever more erratic, voters are realizing that Trump is a true danger to national security and to our future. There is no brilliant policy that will change the fact that Trump must be defeated and that the defeat must be crushing, a full, indisputable repudiation of everything Donald Trump and his enablers stand on--the bigotry, the racism, the constant lying, the cruelty and brazen corruption.

It's why the head-to-head numbers are meaningful. The bigger the win, the less room there is for cheating and whatever shenanigans the Trump humpers have in play.

Then there is the repair necessary to get us back on track so we can work and solve the problems facing us. For this, Joe Biden comes with years of experience, built-in trust and integrity and a vast network of relationships, both here and abroad, people who will roll up their sleeves to get the job done as quickly, as effectively as possible.

That's Biden's strength. He brings the fight and the necessary skillset to turn this around. WINNING IS EVERYTHING in 2020. Anything less is unthinkable.

[emmaverybo]

8. +1000

[Kahuna7]

13. The twitter responses to that thread...

[Gothmog]

10. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[colsohlibgal]

12. Name Recognition Is Driving A Lot Of His Support

I am among those worried about his age, and some of his past positions and votes bother me. I will still vote for him over Trump who is evil and too old.

Rachel Bitcofer was dead on in her 2018 election forecasts. She says any of our top 4 or 5 candidates will win handily......if voting machines and vote counting malfeasance doesn’t crop up again.

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. Perhaps more people are worried about Elizabeth's "age". Could that account for her much lower...

performance against Trump? Not sure why anyone should be any more impressed with Rachel Bitcofer's predictions than Harry Enten's. The point people are trying to make is that we need to nominate the person who is performing best against Trump, with a wide enough margin of victory, so that the "voting machines and vote counting malfeasance" aren't as easy to pull off.

[Scurrilous]

14. K&R

[NurseJackie]

15. I can easily understand why.

[Cha]

16. "..but it would be a mistake to dismiss Biden's superior numbers against Trump compared..

Now, these numbers can obviously change, but it would be a mistake to dismiss Biden's superior numbers against Trump compared to his fellow Democrats as mere name recognition.

That's funny.. because before I read that I was thinking.. ".. do they think it's still name recognition?"

Thank you for this highplainsdem!

[Tarheel_Dem]

17. I'm elated, but not surprised that Biden is performing so well despite the attacks from right....

left & center. This just reinforces my belief that Biden will be the nominee, and barring outside influence & interference, the next POTUS.

[Gothmog]

19. Joe Biden's appeal actually isn't a mystery

Link to tweet

Biden shows reverence for the most popular Democrat around, former president Barack Obama; others find fault in everything from the Affordable Care Act to immigration policy. Biden does not bombard voters with a torrent of multi-part plans; he gives them a few basic positions and defends them. Biden does not campaign from the neck up; he campaigns with his heart on his sleeve. Biden is deeply optimistic; his opponents think Americans are the problem, not Trump. (I don’t suggest that his opponents are wrong, merely that their stance apparently isn’t as popular as they thought.) Biden wants normalcy plus reform; his opponents want a peaceful revolution. Biden knows people want to be heard and seen; his opponents (with the exception of Sen. Kamala D. Harris) don’t fully grasp this. They want to “help," to pepper people with ideas and a to-do list, while Biden takes the time to listen to them. (Think of the well-meaning friend who has a thousand suggestions when you are grieving and you’d rather they just shut up and commiserate.)

This is the grouchy-white-guy-in-the-diner problem all over again. Reporters are blinded by their own age, background, education and geography. Instead of going to West Virginia diners to find the Trump voter, reporters should go talk to the residents of The Villages in Florida, the African American churchgoing ladies and the buttoned-down professionals in the affluent suburbs (the Romney-Clinton voters). These people have endured a noisy, offensive and intrusive presence in the White House. They don’t necessarily want a different noisy, intrusive presence — even one they agree with on substance.

Part of the “mystery” of Biden’s appeal would be solved if the moderators flipped their questions, as one smart Democrat not in the Biden camp put it. Instead of asking Biden or another moderate, “Why aren’t you going with the big, bold idea of Medicare-for-all?,” the moderators might consider asking Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) or Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), “Why blow up Obamacare, and why don’t you trust people to choose Medicare if given the option?” Instead of assuming that extreme proposals are the standard, requiring the moderates to explain why they are such wet blankets, the moderators should press the super-progressives on questions such as: What makes you think that voters want to go through another health-care makeover? Why should poorer people pay for richer people’s health care or subsidize their college debt?

Better yet, ask the candidates to relate the personal story from a voter who moved them the most, or the last voter whose phone number they took so that the candidate could call later, or the most insightful thing they have heard from a voter. It might reveal who is talking at voters and who is listening to them.

[Gothmog]

20. Tony Evers says a pragmatic Democrat can carry Wisconsin in 2020

Link to tweet