ABC/WP poll finds Biden supporters more committed to him than other candidates' supporters are

[highplainsdem]

to their favorites


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/warren-gains-harris-slips-room-movement-vast/story?id=65414558

The race has vast room to move: A minority of Democrats and Democratic leaners, 43 percent, say they’re committed to their current candidate as long as he or she stays in the race. Fifty-five percent instead say they’d consider switching horses.

Biden benefits from higher levels of commitment. Among his backers, 64 percent say they’ll definitely support him, while 34 percent say they’d consider supporting another candidate.

These numbers are reversed for the rest of the field. Among all other candidates’ supporters combined, just 34 percent are definitely for their current choice, while 64 percent say they’d consider someone else. While the samples are small, Sanders and Warren are essentially as vulnerable as the lower-tier candidates on this measure of committed support.

So much for the theory -- beloved by many in the media as well as supporters of Warren and Sanders -- that support for Joe Biden is "fragile" and based only on name recognition, perceptions of electability, etc.

[crazytown]

1. In the end the question is, do we believe Morning Consult?

If Sanders craters, do we believe Morning Consult that Biden will get more of those votes than Warren?

[highplainsdem]

2. I'm pretty sure I've seen polls other than MC that listed Biden as the most popular second

choice of Sanders supporters...but I've read so many polls in the last several months that I'm not entirely sure of that, let alone able to remember which polls also included second choices.

I do want to point out, though, that MC's polling of the top five candidates show their supporters will scatter to a few different candidates if any drop out.

Which is why I've posted about how having Sanders or Warren drop out, which many people seem to assume will mean their supporters will then all or mostly go to the other most-progressive candidate, will help Biden almost as much, so that won't close the gap with Biden in this race.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287237414

Btw, if the support for Sanders slips so much he actually "craters," that will be a much smaller pool of voters to divvy up, too.

[crazytown]

4. Well, be on the lookout for them.

Drilling down into around 15 articles on google, including 538, the source on second preferences ends up being Morning Consult.

[highplainsdem]

8. I just found a CNN analysis of their own poll, from early June.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-06-04-2019/index.html

Unlike among first choice preferences, Warren does seem to have gained some ground in the second choice category. She's the second choice of 14% of voters. That's up 5 points from March and good enough for being the second choice for more voters than any other candidate except Biden.

Warren though does continue to have the same potential problems she has in first choice selection. Her support is concentrated more among white, college educated and liberal voters.

One other key note is that Biden is steady on second choice. He's the second choice of 16% of voters. That's the same as it was in March.

Coming in with 16% may not seem great for a front-runner, but remember Biden's got a limited pool of potential second choice voters because he's the first choice of 32%.

Among those candidates who selected someone other than Biden for their first choice, Biden earns 29%. This is close to the the 32% he earns in first choice preferences among all voters.

The fact that Biden is able to get this many second choice votes suggests that there really isn't a Biden lane. Many voters selecting someone other than Biden will gravitate toward Biden if their first choice doesn't work out.

Warren's doing slightly better, obviously, in more recent polls. But Morning Consult has indicated that Biden's still doing as well as Warren when people are asked about second choices, even though the people being asked are currently favoring candidates farther left than Biden.

[crazytown]

9. Good find. Thanks.

There may be a lot reason why a majority of Sanders supporters would choose Biden over Warren, but I can't think of them. A preference for male candidates perhaps. There were not too fond of Hillary.

[DownriverDem]

13. Beating trump

is all that matters. Biden is the best candidate to beat trump. trump does not want to run against Biden. I wish folks would focus on that.

[JI7]

3. while i do believe it's still early and even the lower percentage candidates may have a chance

i think the fact Biden was leading in the polls even before he announced was a sign of how strong he would be. Sanders had same level name recognition so it wasn't just that either.

[TCJ70]

5. Fear is a powerful motivator. N/t

[highplainsdem]

6. I've yet to meet a Biden supporter who's motivated by fear. What an odd idea.

[TCJ70]

14. I see it in a lot of the rhetoric around Biden support...

...although it’s couched in language to hide it.
- “we can’t risk a second Trump term”
- “Biden has the best chance to remove Trump”
- “Biden is the only one who can win”

There’s fear behind each of those statements. Fear of Trump, fear of a loss (unfounded, in my opinion, as most electability arguments are). I don’t disagree that a second Trump term would be bad...but I’m not going to let that allow me to give up on the things I think are important and settle for what I view as a lesser candidate in the primary.

[highplainsdem]

16. And I've seen countless predictions that we need Warren or Sanders because Biden will lose.

If that electability argument equates with fear, that's also a fear-based argument for Warren and Sanders.

[TCJ70]

18. I apply the same standard to all electability arguments...

...regardless of candidate.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

7. Despite his gaffes, I am with Champ.....

We all make errors. Call it an age thing, or just too much going on in the brain. I trust Joe Biden, followed by Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

Who amongst us here is CLEAR of all BRAIN CLUTTER?

[highplainsdem]

11. Speaking of Champ...

[Joe941]

10. The poll means next to nothing.

[BlueMississippi]

12. K&R nt

[Gothmog]

15. I am committed to Biden

I just made a good size donation to go have lunch with Biden next week

[Cha]

20. Goood you, Goth.. you

Lucky Dawg!

[Gothmog]

17. Joe Biden still bests fellow Democrats on electability, polls show

Link to tweet

[Cha]

19. Wow.. Interesting.. I saw only "name recognition"

here a couple of days ago. Didn't even bother to reply.. let them think that if that's their go to.

Thanks, highplainsdem!

[Tarheel_Dem]

21. I know I am.