CBS News poll: Bernie Sanders leading among Democrats in Nevada

[Uncle Joe]

[Joe941]

1. That is impressive.

[Uncle Joe]

2. I agree Joe. Despite it being an early state, there haven't been many polls to come out of Nevada

Last edited Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:39 PM - Edit history (1)

AUG. 9, 2019, AT 6:00 AM

Have Pollsters Forgotten That Nevada Is An Early State?

There are few constants in the presidential primary, but the order in which early states vote is roughly set in stone: first Iowa, then New Hampshire and then either Nevada or South Carolina, depending on the party.1 This is critical to how candidates operate in a presidential primary because what happens in one state can influence what happens in the next state to vote. Knowing this, campaigns often tailor their strategies to how they can best contend in each individual state, emphasizing the early-voting states as they try to advance deeper into the primary.

This is why it is important to know how candidates are faring in each state, rather than just how they are performing nationally. We’re about six months away from the first nomination contest in Iowa, but a look at the number of surveys conducted in each state gives us a window into which states are — and aren’t — being polled enough based on their position on the primary calendar. With the addition of an Iowa survey by Monmouth University released on Thursday, Iowa now has more Democratic presidential primary polls than any other state thus far in the 2020 cycle — 22 surveys. But while Iowa leads the way, another early-voting state, Nevada, has been surveyed just three times! Granted, Iowa does hold the first caucus, but even states like South Carolina, California and Texas, which go after Nevada, have been polled far more. And yes, each of these states could host a crucial contest, but so could Nevada!

(snip)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-pollsters-forgotten-that-nevada-is-an-early-state/

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Ruh-Ro for Joe

That's 3 early states he's projected to lose...

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. With a 5% MOE?

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Oh, NOW you care about MOE

I have yet to see a single post about a Biden lead in a poll that includes the MOE...

[George II]

6. Using selective polls. He's actually ahead in all four early states using the RCP average....

By 10.5% in Iowa
By 0.4% in New Hampshire (even with two Senators from abutting states)
By 6.3% in Nevada
By 24.6% in South Carolina

Ruh-Ro for Joe!!

[Thekaspervote]

7. Ruh -Ro for Joe is right. Thx for posting the realistic poll averages!!