DU Primaries Report, September 2019: So Trump Is Getting Impeached

[EarlG]

Last edited Wed Oct 2, 2019, 10:34 AM - Edit history (1)

Welcome to the sixth monthly DU Primaries Report, based on the ongoing candidate preferences of DU members right here in the Democratic Primaries forum!

How the Candidate Rankings board works:

• Displayed percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, so a candidate displayed at (for example) 10% will have an actual percentage in the range of 9.50% to 10.49%.


• Candidates below 0.5% are displayed at 0%. Candidates with no supporters at all are marked with a dash.


• For the purposes of the DU Primaries Report, only candidates who have an actual percentage of at least 1% are included.

Previously on the DU Primaries Report

August 2019: I'll Just Get My Coat
July 2019: Look, a Squirrel!
June 2019: Warren Takes Charge
May 2019: Steady As She Goes
April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started!

Where the candidates stand this month

Hey guys, I don't know if you heard about this but TRUMP IS GETTING IMPEACHED. This has of course thrown quite a bomb into the middle of the race for the Democratic nomination. With all media attention now focused squarely on Donald J. Treasonweasel and his increasingly pathetic attempts to squirm out of what's about to happen to him, our candidates have, for the most part, been thrust out of the spotlight.

One exception is Joe Biden, who -- befitting his real-world status as front-runner -- has been the focus of Trump's relentless smear campaign, while the other candidates have essentially been relegated to defending his honor. That said, Elizabeth Warren was spotted moving ahead of Biden in a few recent polls, and while they may not have been in the national news as much, all of the Democratic candidates are still obviously working hard in the early primary states.

But of course, the news over the last couple of weeks has really been all Trump, Trump, Trump. In our first graph, you can clearly see how the impeachment news has affected the primary contest here on DU:

Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided, all-time



Speaking of TRUMP GETTING IMPEACHED, has anyone noticed that heretofore-presumably-regarded-as-smart conservative political commentators have suddenly turned into the world's dumbest motherfuckers? It's so weird! Turn on any cable news channel these days and within an hour you're liable to see a "former White House lawyer" or "Republican political strategist" or "Senator from South Carolina" acting as if they can barely speak the English language, let alone offer any serious insight into Trump's wrongdoings. This is a witch hunt! Trump didn't say, "I would like you to do us a favor though," he said, "Aye, wood like you! To do: us? Afay! Vorthough." The last two words are, er, Elvish for "God Bless Ukraine."

But back to the primaries. First let's get a big-picture look at how the candidates have fared on DU since we started tracking these numbers at the beginning of March. Since the all-time chart is getting a little tough to read now that we're six months into this thing, I've broken it down to show where the candidates were on the last recorded date of each month. Which gives us:

Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided, all-time



Undecideds ticked up in August after Jay Inslee dropped out, but have once again reached their lowest mark since the primaries began, ending September at 35.83%. Now for the same view without Undecideds:

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, all-time



Elizabeth Warren continues to accelerate away from the pack, moving from 19.26% at the end of August to 21.87% today. She has jumped more than 4 percentage points over the last two months, leaving other candidates in the dust. Meanwhile, the attacks on Joe Biden from Trump and his surrogates seem to have barely moved the needle for Biden on DU. He ended August at 13.62% and finished out September at 13.46%.

Danger looms for Kamala Harris, however, as she now appears to be on the verge of dropping below Bernie Sanders for the first time. Let's take a look at the graph for the month of September:

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, September 2019



Sanders kept up his very-slow-but-extremely-steady performance throughout August, starting at 8% and ending at 8.15%, while Harris's support continued its noticeable decline. She started August with 9.26% support on DU, and ended with 8.2%, a significant drop which now sees her running essentially dead even with Sanders.

Pete Buttigieg also took a bit of a dive, starting at 6.57% before dropping to 5.92% by the end of the month. His trajectory continues to point downwards. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, managed to hang on throughout September, climbing slightly from 2.01% at the end of August to 2.10% at the end of September.

Next month's predictions

Last month I predicted that more lower-tier candidates would drop out in September, and maybe even a top-10 candidate or two. I was... pretty far off to be honest, as the only candidate dropping out in September was Bill de Blasio. We even gained a new candidate as former Pennsylvania congressman Joe Sestak got into the race -- although to be fair neither of these events caused a flicker on the DU Primaries Seismograph.

So what will next month bring? Would anyone be offended if I said FUCK IF I KNOW?!?! Let's see... well, by the end of October we'll be in the middle of a hot civil war, Russia will invade Alaska, and Trump will launch nukes at San Francisco after running naked around the Rose Garden with an ostrich feather sticking out of his butt crack.

The next report will take place on Monday, October 28, assuming we're not all dead by then. Thanks for reading!

[saidsimplesimon]

1. Excellent, that last paragraph

was a thing to behold, Hope you don't mind my laughing at what is a real possibility.

So what will next month bring? Would anyone be offended if I said FUCK IF I KNOW?!?! Let's see... well, by the end of October we'll be in the middle of a hot civil war, Russian will invade Alaska, and Trump will launch nukes at San Francisco after running naked around the Rose Garden with an ostrich feather sticking out of his butt crack.

The next report will take place on Monday, October 28, assuming we're not all dead by then. Thanks for reading!

[yuiyoshida]

2. Its very sad to see Harris drop like this....

I keep hoping she will turn things around but I really believe she would have been a great President ... maybe has a chance as VP...but I doubt she will still even be in the race at the end..disappointing.

[localroger]

5. While I agree she's presenting well...

...having been a prosecutor is always going to be a mark against her for a fair number of folks on the Left. That will probably hurt her considerably in the primary race, less so should she somehow make it to the general. Even if she was the fairest prosecutor who ever lived bottom line her job was helping the cops put people in jail, and if you've ever had reason to be worried about being put in jail yourself it's going to be hard to look past that with clear eyes.

[FailureToCommunicate]

6. Keep the faith. A lot can happen. Harris is still a top contender and a great choice among

a crowded field of good choices.

Funding deadline for end of the month totals NOW, BTW.


Kamala Harris DU ActBlue Link

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforharris

[yuiyoshida]

12. Okay...I think it was awful how SNL portrayed her to look like an Idiot...

However she thought it was funny and not indeed an insult..its not the way I saw it... and I see it hurting her in the polls, and driving people away, if they think she is too much like the parody character they presented on SNL THEY won't vote for "Another arrogant Idiot" ... this is really making me depressed. I will vote for whoever is nominated, but I wanted Kamala to at least come up with something to push forward her campaign.

[WinstonSmith4740]

3. Spot on!

"Aye, wood like you! To do: us? Afay! Vorthough.

All he's got to do now is convince Fox News that Captain Kirk actually was the one who was asking. Shouldn't be too tough. Hannity's probably already thought of it.

[Piasladic]

4. Thank you!

Always a fun read.

[Uncle Joe]

7. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread EarlG.

[Wawannabe]

8. 😁

My first time reading this!!
It’s really good thank you!
Will I be back?
FUCKED IF I KNOW!?
We could all be dead by then...

Peace out

Impeach that POS!

[DesertRat]

9. Thanks! I was having fun with this until I read your last sentence

[apkhgp]

10. Which ever candidate I decide to vote for

The ONE end result I hope for is not having to listen to 45 ever again. Of course if he is impeached before then that would be all the better. But that means that other jerk would fill his spot until the Election. Do you think this country could stand that kind of stuff?

[Dem2theMax]

11. EarlG, DU is so lucky to have you.

Reading this made me miss the hate mail bag.
Hint, hint, hint.