On Bloomberg from NY Times, only Biden leads Trump in battleground states

[still_one]

One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds
Signs that the president’s advantage in the Electoral College has persisted or even increased since 2016.

Despite low national approval ratings and the specter of impeachment, President Trump remains highly competitive in the battleground states likeliest to decide his re-election, according to a set of new surveys from The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.

Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, he trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within the margin of error.
Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago.

The poll showed Bernie Sanders deadlocked with the president among registered voters, but trailing among likely voters.
The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender — including the fraught question of “likability” — could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.

In national polls, Mr. Trump’s political standing has appeared to be in grave jeopardy. His approval ratings have long been in the low 40s, and he trails Mr. Biden by almost nine points in a national polling average. But as the 2016 race showed, the story in the battleground states can be quite different. Mr. Trump won the election by sweeping Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — even while losing the national vote by two points.
Democrats would probably need to win three of the six states to win the White House, assuming other states voted as they did in 2016 — an outcome that is not at all assured.

……….


The Times/Siena poll of 3,766 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26. The margin of sampling error for an individual state poll is plus or minus 4.4, except for Michigan at plus or minus 5.1 points. Together, the battleground sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
The Times/Siena poll of 1,435 registered voters in Iowa was conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Full cross-tabs and methodology are available here.
In 2018, the Times/Siena polls had an average error of 2.5 points in 10 polls in these states over the final three weeks of the campaign. If they had been joined together as one large poll, as is the case here, the final result would have been within 1 point.

……


https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/one-year-from-election-trump-trails-biden-but-leads-warren-in-battlegrounds.html

[ritapria]

1. The NYT/Siena College Battleground State Polls are Pro Trump outliers

These results are in conflict with the results observed from polling organizations around the country …..They are in conflict with Trump's abysmal approval ratings - particularly in MI. WI and Pa ……. Siena also reported that voters disapproved of Trump's impeachment and removal by a margin of 52%-44% ….Another example of a Pro-_Trump outlier ……..

[BannonsLiver]

8. Yes let's bury our heads in the sand and pretend it'll be a cakewalk

Why, that worked out so well the last time. And we all know this poll and others that don’t fit our narratives are outliers.

[Amishman]

11. Disapproving of Trump doesn't mean they won't vote for him

a ton of conservatives are convinced that we're a bunch of communists who will take their money and give it to immigrants.

They don't have to like Trump, they just have to hate us more.

[redqueen]

2. "Democrats are stuck in a doom loop of premature polling"

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287326086

[evertonfc]

3. not surprised

These results are reflective of most others. We can't call "fake news" on polls that are bad for us. I've been actively involved in progressive politics for 30 years and can tell you one thing..... unless the markets or unemployment rate tanks- WARREN will not win a General election. Period. Biden is our only candidate that can expand the map. Good luck.

[still_one]

4. The problem is we are being lulled by National Polls. That isn't how Presidents are elected. It is

by the states, and this is definitely a manifestation of the electoral college

[thesquanderer]

7. Yes, it's good to see polls like this, reflective of the states/electoral college scenarios.

These are the most important polls to watch over the coming months.

[Stuy]

5. The headline is false

Sanders leads in 3 c of those States, and Warren leads in Arizona.

[still_one]

6. There is a difference between registered and likely voters. Likely voters is worse for the other

candidates

Regardless, they are all in the MOE, however, it should put emphasis on the fact how critical it is to get out the vote

[Act_of_Reparation]

10. There is a difference between "only Biden leads in battleground states"...

...and "only Biden leads in some battleground states."

One of these statements is accurate. One them is not... and is also the headline.

While the differences between registered voters who prefer derbies to tophats and likely voters who refuse to eat chicken wings after labor day truly stimulates the synapses, I don't see the relevance here.

[still_one]

12. Parse anyway you want. The relevance is regrdless who our candidate is, it is far from a given that

Trump will lose

[Cha]

9. KR!

Thank you, still_one!