Poll: Trump trails Biden, leads Warren in key states

[brooklynite]

The Hill

President Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden and leading Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in key battleground states, according to a New York Times/Siena College survey released on Monday.

The poll shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points in Arizona, 3 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and by 2 points in Florida, margins all near or within the poll's margin of error.

The president and former vice president are also neck and neck in Michigan, according to the survey.

Trump led Biden by 2 points in North Carolina, however, which has become more competitive for Democrats in recent years.

[evertonfc]

1. troubling

Biden can expand the map. Warren can't. Warren will not win a General Election. The most concerning polls is PA. A Democrat should be up 8-10 there. Period. The fact that Trump is competitive there is not good. However, Biden is the candidate we have that can compete in Arizona, NC, FL..... Unfortunately we don't have dynamic figures lime Bill Clinton or Obama.

[BeyondGeography]

2. Poll has a 4.4 MOE and 5.1 in MI

Those are shite numbers for all of our candidates.

[still_one]

3. True, and it is still a ways off, but the reality is a lot of this is a manifestation of the

electoral college, and the ONLY way we have a chance to overcome that is to get out the vote

47% deciding NOT to vote isn't going to cut it

I personally think this will come down to winning either Florida or Ohio

[BeyondGeography]

4. GOTV is key

Which is why Biden’s pathetic numbers with younger voters across the board scare me, quite frankly. If he is the nominee he will have to address that not just with his running mate but with a change of tone and mindset.I’m a little cynical re. his ability to do that.

[still_one]

6. That doesn't scare me. ANONE who is supporting ONE of OUR candidates who refuses to vote for the

Democratic nominee in 2020, they are BENEATH CONTEMPT, it is that SIMPLE

[Demsrule86]

16. We need more than Democrats. I have no doubt that Democrats will choose any nominee. I know I will,

but that won't be enough. We need independents and maybe even some Republicans who find Trump's actions troubling...we must win in the Mid West...if he wins Wisconsin but keep all other states he won in 16, the election will go to the House where with the GOP's advantage (gerrymandering), the GOP and Trump wins.

[BannonsLiver]

7. If it comes down to those two states Trump will win again

There isn’t a Dem in the race capable of winning both (and likely either) including Biden who is performing the best in the h2h polls. If it comes down to FL and OH, we can all kiss our asses goodbye. Take that to the bank.

[Turin_C3PO]

8. I think

if everything goes in our favor i.e. huge turnout, increased youth vote, low Trump approval rating, etc. that Biden could win Florida and maybe Ohio.

[BannonsLiver]

9. Yeah, I definitely think we should count on everything going in our favor

[Turin_C3PO]

11. I'm not saying that at all.

I’m just speculating. Obviously, it’s going to take a major effort to unseat Trump.

[still_one]

10. I meant either or, not both. I also don't agree with your assessment because I believe if we get

the vote out we can do it

[BannonsLiver]

12. Florida's elections are suspect and OHIO is trending RWNJ

And has been for several elections now. I may be wrong but I don’t believe there is a single Dem in statewide office in OH. It’s been trending hard right. As for FL their elections are so crooked the Dem would need to win by 5-6 points to have a shot. Not happening.

[still_one]

15. If you analysis is right then that makes those other battleground states critical

[Demsrule86]

17. Biden leads Trump in Ohio...he could win here. He is the only one. Trump is pretty much hated in

counties who lost manufacturing plants like Lordstown. He won't win Trumbull or Mahoning...he will lose Cuyahoga as well if we have Biden as the nominee... I worked both Obama elections. Biden is well liked here.

[redqueen]

5. Democrats are stuck in a doom loop of premature polling

The case for looking beyond the top three candidates.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/23/20875725/campaign-2020-polling-democrats-biden-trump

[saljr1]

13. He leads Warren in 2 of those states, Warren leads in one and is tie in 3 others

The truth is Trump and the the White House staff fear Warren the most and would love to run against Biden according to PBS newsman Robert Costa who covers the White House

[MineralMan]

14. BEAT TRUMP! That is all.

Whatever it takes, that has to be our goal in 2020.