The NYT's analysis of its battleground states polls cites obstacles for Warren's GE electability.

[Skya Rhen]

Snip...

The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender — including the fraught question of “likability” — could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.In states likely to be closely fought, even a modest swing among these voters could resolve the election in either side’s favor. In this poll, they swing the election in favor of Mr. Biden but leave Ms. Warren or Mr. Sanders short.

Snip...

Ms. Warren’s challenge is not just name recognition. She also underperformed her rivals against Mr. Trump in separate head-to-head polling of Iowa, where she and other candidates have been campaigning in earnest ahead of the Democratic caucus. Ms. Warren trailed Mr. Trump by six points in Iowa, the widest gap among leading Democrats, even though she led the Democratic caucus in our poll. Pete Buttigieg, who is generally not as well known as Ms. Warren, trailed Mr. Trump by four points in Iowa, which was the only state where we included him in head-to-head polling against the president. Mr. Biden trailed by one point and Mr. Sanders by three. An analysis of the 205 respondents from the six core battleground states who support Mr. Biden but not Ms. Warren suggests that she might struggle to win many of them over.

Snip...

At the same time, 41 percent of the voters who support Mr. Biden but not Ms. Warren say they agree with the statement that most of the women who run for president “just aren’t that likable,” likely bolstering concerns among some Democrats that sexism could be a burden on her candidacy.

Snip...

Some women also fall into this group. Elysha Savarese, 26, works in victims advocacy in Florida. She voted for Mr. Trump and said she would not do so again. But she wouldn’t vote for Ms. Warren, either. “There’s just something about her that I just don’t like,” she said. “I just don’t feel like she’s a genuine candidate. I find her body language to be very off-putting. She’s very cold. She’s basically a Hillary Clinton clone.” As for female presidential candidates in general, she said, “They’re super unlikable.”

These voters like Mr. Biden — he has a 92 percent favorable rating among them — but 52 percent say they don’t know enough about Ms. Warren to have an opinion. Fifty-nine percent are nonwhite. Mr. Sanders has a wide lead against the president among these voters.

If these respondents had backed Ms. Warren in the Times/Siena survey, the poll results would have shown her and Mr. Trump deadlocked in an election highly reminiscent of 2016.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/one-year-from-election-trump-trails-biden-but-leads-warren-in-battlegrounds.html

Link to tweet

[empedocles]

1. Ideology, racism, sexism, likeability, faces, party identity, are factors. Often here at DU some

write-off all Republicans, et al.

However, for a number of voters, which party overall 'feels' worse. Elections will bring about heavy rw promotion of negatives, of the squad, et al.

[nini]

2. This is a crucial point that cannot be ignored

Whether people like it or not - we have to pull those center right voters to get rid of the monster in the white house. Warren has been tainted by the Pocahontas stuff and the 'trillions' people will see in regards to the health care will scare people off - it's not right - it's reality.

We MUST take the presidency back this election or the republic is dead. We understand and support Warren's ideas, but we're not the problem with the electorate.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. False- if the youth vote is energized, WE WILL WIN

Wasting time and energy flipping Trump voters is folly.

This is supported by the data analysis recently presented by the woman professor (forget her name at the moment) who correctly predicted the magnitude of the blue wave.

[nini]

5. IF

I'm not talking about Trumpers.. they're beyond help. But those middle of the road swing votes are crucial.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Again, the data does not bear this out

From Rachel Bitecofer's blog:

Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency. The leaking of the Trump campaign’s internal polling has somewhat softened the blow of this forecast, as that polling reaffirms what my model already knew: Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. And that is really bad news for Donald Trump because the Blue Wall of the Midwest was then, and is now, the ONLY viable path for Trump to win the White House.

<snip>

Does the Democrat’s nominee matter? Sure, to an extent. If the ticket has a woman, a person of color or a Latino, or a female who is also a person of color, Democratic Party turnout will surge more in really important places. If the nominee is Biden he’d be well-advised to consider Democratic voter turnout his number one consideration when drawing his running mate to avoid the critical mistake made by Hillary Clinton in 2016. This is true for any of the white male candidates. If the nominee hails from the progressive wing of the party, it will provoke massive handwringing both within the party and the media that if not controlled could become self-reinforcing. But the Democrats are not complacent like they were in 2016 and I doubt there is any amount of polling or favorable forecasts that will make them so. That fear will play a crucial role in their 2020 victory. We will not see a divided Democratic Party in 2020.

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/

[MrsCoffee]

7. It's the only boogeyman they have. She is a fantastic candidate.

This is what happens to women. "Electibility". It's a bullshit word that means nothing and has zero basis in reality and is only used because they want their candidate over her. Period.

If anyone let's fuckface mcfuckstick call her Pocahontas and takes that as a negative on her, well that's just beyond ridiculous. The only people that will "fault" her for that will never vote for a Democrat anyway.

What a joke.

[Lexblues]

10. If we only depend on youth votes for victory, God save us

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. It feels frustrating to know

that no matter what year it is (what year is it now? 2019?) we STILL have to keep falling back on the same old white male to ensure that we win the next election. At what point are we ever going to be able to feel good about nominating a woman or another POC? If Biden is the nominee, so be it, but it seems like change in this country and its representation is so glacial, it almost appears non-existent.

[nini]

13. It is frustrating.. I don't deny that

We absolutely must nominate someone who will beat that jerk and unfortunately we've got too many idiots in this country.

We're up against them, big money repukes, Fox news etc..

I've said before..it took the GOP 40 years, since Reagan, to get us here.. we're not going to swing back overnight. As much as it makes me sick - it's where we are.

[LAS14]

3. Does anyone have info about how much time Warren has spent in these states? Relative...

... to the time spent in the early states?

[flotsam]

8. NYT/Siena Poll

MOE 5 points, 18 races predicted with 17 within MOE and just one race a six point loss....which might actually be one point loss with trump losing popularity as impeachment evidence is introduced.

[Cha]

11. KR!

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. As we've heard repeatedly at DU "the polls are what the polls are".