Cook Political/KFF Blue Wall Project shows Warren leading in WI, MN and MI, Biden leads in PA

[BeyondGeography]

Link to tweet

Key Findings

The Kaiser Family Foundation and Cook Political Report have embarked on a new project examining the attitudes and experiences of voters in several key battleground states leading up the 2020 presidential election. The Blue Wall Voices Project is a unique state-based polling project that relies on an innovative probability-based approach to conducting public opinion polls using a combination of telephone and online methodologies. Drawing from voter registration lists, KFF and Cook Political Report have conducted interviews with 3,222 voters in the four states constituting the “Democratic Blue Wall” – the area in the Upper Midwest that was previously considered a Democratic stronghold, and where state polls performed poorly in 2016 and underestimated support for President Trump. The data analyzed is from 767 voters in Michigan, 958 voters in Minnesota, 752 voters in Pennsylvania, and 745 voters in Wisconsin. For more details, please see the methodology section of this report. the poll was conducted September 23rd – October 15th, 2019.

...The poll relies on an innovative probability-based methodology designed to address shortcomings with telephone-only surveys based on either voter-registration rolls or random-digit dialing. Voters were contacted via mailing address using registration-based sampling and encouraged to participate in the survey either online or by telephone and follow-up contacts were made using outbound telephone calls. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish either online (2763), by calling in to complete (255), or throughout outbound telephone interviews (204). The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points for the full sample. For results based on subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher.

Michigan: With more than four months before the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary, Senator Elizabeth Warren garners the most support among likely Democratic primary voters followed by Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. One-fourth of Michigan Democratic primary voters say Senator Warren is their first choice for the 2020 Democratic ticket and a combined 43% of voters say she is their first choice or second choice.

Minnesota: With more than four months left before the 2020 Minnesota Democratic primary, Senator Elizabeth Warren garners the most support among likely Democratic primary voters followed by Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Vice President Joe Biden, and Senator Bernie Sanders. One-fourth of Minnesota Democratic primary voters say Senator Warren is their first choice for the 2020 Democratic ticket and a combined 43% of voters say she is their first choice or second choice.

Pennsylvania: With more than six months before the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, Vice President Joe Biden, a Pennsylvania native, is the first choice among Democratic primary voters. One-fourth (27%) of Democratic primary voters chose Vice President Biden as their first choice of 2020 Democratic candidates followed by 18% of Democratic primary voters who chose Senator Elizabeth Warren and 14% who chose Senator Bernie Sanders. Senator Warren and Vice President Biden have a relatively similar share of first choice and second choice votes with more than one-third of voters selecting either candidate as their first or second choice.

Wisconsin: With about five months before Wisconsin’s 2020 primary election, about one in five Democratic voters say Senator Warren (22%) and Vice President Biden (17%) are who they plan to support during the Democratic primary. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who won the Wisconsin primary in 2016 when he challenged former Senator Hillary Clinton for the nomination, is currently garnering 10%. Notably, about four in ten (41%) Wisconsin Democratic primary voters select Senator Warren as their first or second choice compared to one in four Democratic primary voters who select Vice President Joe Biden as their first or second choice while one in five (21%) say Senator Sanders is their first or second choice.

Few Democratic voters see progressive positions as deal breakers in their 2020 vote. The Blue Wall Voices Project also sought to find out whether the progressive positions being discussed by the Democratic nominees for president on the campaign trail are deal breaker issues for voters. Overall, a majority of voters in the Blue Wall who plan to vote for the Democratic nominee view the progressive platforms asked about in this survey as “good ideas,” including majorities of voters in each of the four states. None of these issues are deal breakers, with most voters saying that if a candidate disagrees with them on this issue then there would still be a chance that they would vote for them.

Much more at https://www.kff.org/other/report/blue-wall-voices-project/

[vsrazdem]

1. So does that mean we can finally stop with the Warren can't win the midwest talk, PLEASE.

[Demsrule86]

2. She won't win a general in the mid west...this is about Democrats and primaries...

And wait for it ...this poll not withstanding, Biden will win these states.

[vsrazdem]

4. I don't believe that.

[Demsrule86]

7. Well you can believe as you choose but this is a research thing that paid participants, less than

a thousand registered voters per state, and by invitation only....and it speaks to the primary. Also with all of that, Biden was still a front runner. Read the methods used.

[Bradshaw3]

31. Repeating false claims does not make them true

What is this, the 8000th time this claim has been made. And it still is wrong.

[Demsrule86]

37. It is not false...and at least I don't post negative stuff about Warren...just that I think other

candidates have a better chance of winning the general...and this poll as I am sure you know because you are smart is extremely flawed and doesn't make the case that either Warren or Sanders can win the Mid West. I actually think Sanders has a better shot at the Mid West as he has ties there from 16...so if for some reason Biden was unable to continue running and I don't think that will happen... I do believe Biden will be the nominee and beat Trump...but if there was some reason, Sanders is my second choice...he has a chance at least. How good it is who knows?

[BlueMTexpat]

3. One would think so.

But no, there will certainly be several who pop in just to tell us what is wrong with this poll.

Because if Warren is leading, something must be wrong with the poll.

[Demsrule86]

8. This is not a poll first of all...and the participants were paid...and the sample size was less than

1000 per state and by invitation only using registered voters not likely voters...anyone who looks at the methodology will see for themselves what a poor example it is...I guess some really want to show that Warren can win the mid west but this polls doesn't do that at all.

[still_one]

26. If they were paid, I wonder if Yang was involved with his 1000 dollar raffle in the last debate

[Demsrule86]

35. Funny stuff!

[Demsrule86]

38. Ah so you read the method section too...

[LakeArenal]

41. Nope. I'm from Wisconsin. And I say she won't.

[Demsrule86]

5. This is ridiculous...first of all paid participants sent an invitation...and Joe is still in the

top two...I checked out the method and sample size...less than a thousand per each state...and invitation only...also used registered voters not likely voters. You may think I am nitpicking but I find this underwhelming based on the methods.

"The Blue Wall Voices Project was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) in collaboration with the Cook Political Report. The survey was conducted September 23rd – October 15th, 2019, among a representative random sample of 3,222 registered voters in four states (767 in Michigan, 958 in Minnesota, 752 in Pennsylvania, and 745 in Wisconsin) constituting the “Democratic Blue Wall” – the area in the Upper Midwest that were previously considered Democratic strongholds, and where state polls performed poorly in 2016 and underestimated support for President Trump. All registered voters included in the sample were sent an invitation letter including a link to complete the survey online, a toll-free number that respondents could call to complete the survey with a telephone interviewer, and $2 pre-incentive. Respondents who were living in Census block-groups identified as low-education and respondents identified as likely Hispanic were offered $10 post-incentive if they completed the survey. A random half of respondents received a QR code on their invitation letters. All respondents were then sent a reminder postcard, which included a QR code for all respondents."

[Wellstone ruled]

6. As a old timer

from Minny,this poll is interesting to say the least. Shades of Hubert Humphrey and the Sixties. Are the Millennial's moving this polling? If they are,good on them.

[BlueMTexpat]

9. Love your name!

I am a great fan of the late Paul Wellstone ... as well as a great fan of the late Hubert Humphrey.

HH was robbed in 1968.

[Wellstone ruled]

11. That he was.

Johnson's mega Ego got in the way.

[BlueMTexpat]

13. More was directly due to Nixon's and

Kissinger's sabotage of Johnson's attempted peace negotiations. But we didn't about learn that until much, much later.

Please see: When a Candidate Conspired With a Foreign Power to Win An Election at https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/06/nixon-vietnam-candidate-conspired-with-foreign-power-win-election-215461

Brief excerpt:

...
Other calls were steeped in intrigue. In one series of scribbles, Haldeman reported Henry Kissinger’s willingness to inform on his U.S. diplomatic colleagues, and keep Nixon updated on President Lyndon Johnson’s furious, eleventh-hour efforts to end the Vietnam War.

Haldeman, 42, was Nixon’s campaign chief of staff, a devoted political adjutant since the 1950s. In late October 1968, the two men connected on what came to be known as “the Chennault Affair.” Nixon gave Haldeman his orders: Find ways to sabotage Johnson’s plans to stage productive peace talks, so that a frustrated American electorate would turn to the Republicans as their only hope to end the war.

The gambit worked, and the Chennault Affair, named for Anna Chennault, the Republican doyenne and fundraiser who became Nixon’s back channel to the South Vietnamese government, lingered as a diplomatic and political whodunit for decades afterward. ...

Much more at the link.

*************
I have loathed Kissinger and Nixon for years and likely always will.

[Wellstone ruled]

29. Yep,and

Everett Dirkson's Failure to act when confronted with the Nixon collusion evidence. Again,Rethugs wanted a win at any cost.

[evertonfc]

10. So sad

The fact that MN is even being polled is evidence of ground lost in Midwest by Democrats. MN and PA should be locks. Scary

[highplainsdem]

12. They polled fewer than 300 likely Dem voters per state, they PAID the respondents, and their

findings for support for Sanders in particular in MI and WI look way off from earlier polls of those states. (As for Minnesota, the support for Klobuchar as a favorite daughter is likely to have switched to Biden by the time the Minnesota primary rollas around.)

And the polling is from the last week of September and the first two weeks of October, before Warren found herself on the defensive and unable to answer questions in the October debate.

These are the numbers of Democratic likely voters in this poll, provided at 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

WI 274
PA 246
MN 249
MI 208


Their methodology:

https://www.kff.org/report-section/blue-wall-voices-project-methodology/

The Blue Wall Voices Project was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) in collaboration with the Cook Political Report. The survey was conducted September 23rd – October 15th, 2019, among a representative random sample of 3,222 registered voters in four states (767 in Michigan, 958 in Minnesota, 752 in Pennsylvania, and 745 in Wisconsin) constituting the “Democratic Blue Wall” – the area in the Upper Midwest that were previously considered Democratic strongholds, and where state polls performed poorly in 2016 and underestimated support for President Trump. All registered voters included in the sample were sent an invitation letter including a link to complete the survey online, a toll-free number that respondents could call to complete the survey with a telephone interviewer, and $2 pre-incentive. Respondents who were living in Census block-groups identified as low-education and respondents identified as likely Hispanic were offered $10 post-incentive if they completed the survey.

[BeyondGeography]

14. Cook and Kaiser have a much better reputation than Mark Penn, IMO

I look forward to your next HarrisX poll all the same.

I have added the polling dates as they are relevant.

[highplainsdem]

15. Did you see the LAT poll out today that has Biden leading by 12 points nationally?

[BeyondGeography]

16. The only polls that are remotely interesting right now are early states IMO

And in a few months even those could look mostly fanciful.

[Demsrule86]

17. That is huge as I would expect Sen. Warren to have an advantage in national polls.

[BeyondGeography]

19. Lol...why?

She trails Biden in just about all of them.

[Demsrule86]

22. It over samples areas that she should do well in...IE New York, California...

Although I support it depends on the sample size.

[highplainsdem]

18. And yes, the polling period being so long ago is EXTREMELY RELEVANT, and I'm glad you

restored those dates to the quoted excerpt after I pointed them out. But why would you have edited them out in the first place?

[BeyondGeography]

21. They're not in the first graph at the link...take a look

[Demsrule86]

20. First of all this is not a poll but a by invitation survey...with a tiny sample size. The polls are

the polls but this is not a poll. And I see nothing here that can really be used to show Sen. Warren can win the mid west. They twisted the data by income and in other ways too...did you look at the methods?

[highplainsdem]

25. I haven't posted any Harris or HarrisX polls in more than 3 weeks because there are simply

too many of them, and there have been plenty of other polls to look at.

And I don't know how good a reputation this poll has since it's not rated by 538.

I do know the sample size is very small. Nate Silver pointed out earlier this fall that polls like that are more likely to be wrong:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287263384

And the fact they paid respondents is a real wild card here.

[pfeiffer]

27. good grief...

what a pathetically bad survey. i mean...a survey "invitation" online? pre-incentive $$?? results are almost a month old??? and it's not even rated on 538????

if i was a warren or sanders supporter, i would not be emboldened by this.

[highplainsdem]

32. Well, people look for good polling news where they can find it.

And I can't fault them for that, really.

I remember posting at least one poll here that was good news for Sanders supporters in part because it was good news for them, on a day when another poll had had bad news:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287127224

That had Sanders tied with Biden in Iowa back in May.

Paying poll respondents strikes me as really odd, though. And while I can't be sure, I'd think that would tend to skew poll results toward candidates who were promising various free benefits.

[Katalino]

23. Poll kind of outdated, predates the Sanders surge

Bernie has Ben having good polls lately. This one began to be conducted in September..

[Peacetrain]

24. I do not buy this for a second.. Klobuchar in 2nd place in MN..

[highplainsdem]

28. That's similar to a few polls that showed Harris doing really well in CA. Favorite daughters.

But overall there are a number of problems with this poll, including that it was done between 6 and 3 weeks ago.

[NYMinute]

30. Meh. An extreme left think-tank's selective poll. nt

[Celerity]

42. what a laughable, uniformed, disingenuous comment

Meh. An extreme left think-tank's selective poll. nt

The Kaiser Family Foundation?????

smdh, we really are reaching down into the dregs now, all because you do not like some of the poll's results

There may well be legit critiques of the poll, but ffs, it really is absolutely silly to call The KFF

extreme left think-tank

What is your idea of a legit, centre-left think tank? The American Enterprise Institute? roflmaoooo


Kaiser Family Foundation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaiser_Family_Foundation


The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, or just Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), is an American non-profit organization, headquartered in San Francisco, California. It focuses on major health care issues facing the nation, as well as U.S. role in global health policy. KFF states that it is a non-partisan source of facts and analysis, polling and journalism for policymakers, the media, the health care community, and the general public, and its website has been heralded for having the "most up-to-date and accurate information on health policy" and as a "must-read for healthcare devotees."


Notable members of the board of trustees

Jim Doyle, former Governor of Wisconsin
Charles Gibson, former anchor of ABC World News
Kathleen Sebelius, former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services
Olympia Snowe, former United States Senator



lol, yes, that just SCREAMS fire-breathing far left-wing dem socs





Same for the pollster Charlie Cook

he is about as raving far-left as Manchin

[LAS14]

33. Why do we care what Dems want for a candidate. The only thing that matters is what...

... all likely voters in swing states want.

[Demsrule86]

34. I would hope Dems would want a candidate who could win likely voters in swing states.

And thus send Trump packing and down to Florida where hopefully he will be extradited first to New York and then to the Hague for Crimes against humanity...caging babies.

[LAS14]

36. Dems won't know who that will be without the help of some more targeted polls.

[Demsrule86]

39. The polls I have seen show that Biden is the most electable Democrat. Although I wait with

great anticipation for more polls showing this even more clearly.

[LAS14]

43. Electable + "direction we want to go in" trumps(sic) "most electable." nt

[Gothmog]

40. The same set of polling show that MFA polls poorly 36% for and 62% against

Link to tweet

[LAS14]

44. I like a poll that asks about motivation. Interesting. nt

[Demsrule86]

45. It is not a poll but a by invitation paid survey...worthless...and the data is massaged too.

Look at the methods.